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Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

For Today
GBP: Just prior to the opening SKY released a report on PM Johnson looking to institute a law to stop any further delay to moving into the transition period the market didn’t react at the time however, an hour later the market dropped quickly as the market saw the news story again, this time the market quickly moved through to the 1.3240 levels before bouncing and starting a slow recovery through the session to head back to the 1.3300 level for the move into the grey hours, Downside bids likely through the 1.3230 area and continuing into the 1.3200 in a limited fashion, possibly strong stops on a move through the figure level and the downside open to a further test to the 1.3100 level before sentimental bids start appearing, weak stops through the level opens a further losses however, until any significant Brexit move the market is likely to remain firm, Topside offers light through to the 1.3500 level with weak congestion all the way through however, the closer the market moves to that level the stronger the offers appear and moving through to the 1.3520-30 area.
JPY: Opening around the 109.55 area the market tested in early trading through the 109.60 level before sagging as it moved through into the 109.50 level into the Tokyo session, before holding around the opening levels through to the grey hours, Topside strong offers around 109.80-110.00 areas with strong stops likely on a push through the 110.20-30 areas and opening up only to the 110.50 areas with likely congestion then kicking in to slow the ascent any further or at least limit it in all likelihood, downside bids light through to the 108.50 level with some congestion around the level and likely to continue through to the stronger 108.00 area limited stops through the level and then further congestion likely to reappear through to the 107.50 areas and stronger bids thereafter.
AUD: Opening around the 0.6880 level the market drifted through into the Tokyo session basing for a short period around the 0.6870 level and the release of the RBA minutes and testing lightly through to the 0.6865 area before ranging quietly through to the London session, Topside offers likely to be around the 0.6950 area with limited weakness through 0.6960 before stronger offers start to appear on any move through to the 0.6980-0.7020 levels, possible stops through the level and the market then limited to the 0.7050 area and congestion then increasing on any attempt to push to the 0.7080-0.7100 levels, downside bids limited through to the 69 cents level with weak stops likely to be increasing on any dip through the 0.6880 area and the downside then opening up again through to the 0.6750 levels.
EUR: Dipping from the opening highs with the drag of the early selling in GBP, the market touched through to the low 1.1130’s before moving into the Tokyo session rising through to just below the 1.1150 level in quiet trading, Topside offers through the 1.1200 with option plays likely through to the 1.1220 area and possible weak stops through level and opening up further gains however, congestion is likely to increase into the 1.1250 areas but finally testing into the stronger congestion from earlier in the year with offers likely to increase into the 1.1275-1.1300 levels. Downside bids light through to the 1.1100 level with bids likely on any dips too the 1.1080 before stronger stops appear and the market again opening to weaker congestion on a test through to the 1.1000 level where stronger bids are likely to appear.

Overnight News
CNY:
China’s corporate subsidies swell to $22.4b as US cries foul Nikkei
AUD:
RBA seeks more evidence on Economy’s response to rate cuts DJ
NZD:
NZ Dec Business activity outlook index 17.2
NZ Dec Business confidence index at -13.2
NZ Housing lift restores consumer confidence – Westpac
GBP:
PM Johnson plans to legally prohibit government from extending Brexit transition SKY
Johnson may now ditch Brexit protection for workers rights and environment he promised TEL

Today’s Data
Actual A | Consensus C | Previous P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC
NZD ANZ Activity Outlook (DEC) A 17.2 | P 12.9
AUD RBA Minutes of Dec. Policy Meeting (DEC)
0930 GBP Average Weekly Earnings 3m/YoY (OCT) C 3.4% | P 3.6%
0930 GBP Claimant Count Rate (NOV) P 3.4%
0930 GBP Employment Change 3m/3m (OCT) C -24k | P -58k
0930 GBP ILO Unemployment Rate 3mths (OCT) C 3.9% | P 3.8%
0930 GBP Jobless Claims Change (NOV) P 33.0k
0930 GBP Weekly Earnings ex Bonus 3m/YoY (OCT) C 3.4% | P 3.6%
1330 USD Building Permits MoM (NOV) C -3.8% | P 5.0%
1330 USD Housing Starts MoM (NOV) C 2.0% | P 3.8%
1415 USD Industrial Production MoM (NOV) C 0.8% | P -0.8%
1415 USD Manufacturing (SIC) Production (NOV) C 0.8% | P -0.6%
1915 GBP BoE’s Carney Speaks at Coeure’s farewell dinner
2145 NZD Current Account Gross Domestic Product Ratio YTD (3Q) C -3.4% | P -3.4%
2330 AUD Westpac Leading Index MoM (NOV) P -0.07%
2350 JPY Trade Balance (NOV) C -350b | P 17.3b

Harry Hindsight

GBP: Opening around the 1.3340 level the market started a slow steady rise through the Tokyo session pushing through to just below the 1.3400 level and holding just shy of that level through into the grey hours, The move into the London session saw the high quickly made through the 1.3420 areas before starting a slow steady drift back to the opening levels, ranging widely through into the close around the 1.3350 level and testing the 1.3320 area a few times, the move to the close saw the market around the 1.3330 level.
JPY: A quiet range through Tokyo with the market initially dipping through the 109.30 level, the market then lifted through to hold around the 109.40 level in a quiet range around the level into the London opening where the market tested the 109.50 area before holding the 109.40 level through into the NYK session and stronger buyers, the market rose steadily through to the 109.65 area to make the highs for the day before spending an extended period drifting to the close.
AUD: A limited day range wise with the market opening above Fridays close around the 0.6885 level to steadily fill the gap and test to the 0.6870 area and basing along that level through to deep into London, before rising through to the 0.6885 level to hold for a short period and testing through into the NYK session to push through to test towards the 0.6900 levels, after a few hours of trying to push the level the market drifting off a little for the close.
EUR: A quiet range for the Euro with the market opening a little higher and testing lightly back to fill the range before lifting off the lows of the day around the 1.1125 area to slowly push through to the 1.1150 areas before dropping back from the level a little quicker as Euro numbers disappointed a little testing back to the opening level before starting the run again, the market then tested through the highs deep into the NYK session but only just and unable to get through the 1.1160 areas the market dipped quickly from the high to hold the 1.1140-50 through to the close.

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