Brexit risk shouldn’t be as scary for the Pound going forward

GBPUSD – technical overview

The market has seen a recovery out from the lowest levels since 2016, with the price now pushing back above the weekly Ichimoku cloud to signal a bullish structural shift. Ultimately, only back below the 1.2500 handle would compromise the newly established constructive medium and longer-term outlook. Next key resistance comes in the form of the monthly high from September 2017 at 1.3658.

• R2 1.3658 – Monthly High September 2017 – Strong
• R1 1.3515 – 13 December/2019 High – Medium
• S1 1.3230 – 12 December high – Medium
• S2 1.3050 – 12 December low – Strong

GBPUSD – fundamental overview

Some sell the fact profit taking kicked in on Monday, with the Pound easing off recent highs in the aftermath of the overwhelming victory for Boris Johnson. The Pound may have also felt some downside pressure from the softer round of UK PMI reads. The UK government will introduce a Brexit bill to Parliament on 20 December. The BoE said it will raise the capital buffer and recommended tighter rules for open-ended funds. BoE Governor Mark Carney said the likelihood of a disorderly Brexit 'has gone down' as a result of the general election and the 'intention of the new government'. There has been some added tension around a Times report that PM Johnson will redraw the Brexit bill to make it illegal for Parliament to extend the transition period. Looking at the calendar for the day, we get UK employment and US reads highlighted by housing starts, building permits, industrial production, and JOLTS job openings.

USDJPY – technical overview

Despite rally attempts, the longer-term downtrend remains firmly intact. Rallies should continue to be well capped below 110.00 on a monthly closes basis, with deeper setbacks anticipated towards a retest of the yearly low, below which exposes critical support in the form of the 2016 low at 99.00 further down.

• R2 110.00 – Psychological – Strong
• R1 109.73 – 2 December high – Medium
• S1 108.43 – 4 December low – Medium
• S2 108.24 – 14 November low  – Strong

USDJPY – fundamental overview

Most of the price action in this major pair has been dictated by risk on flow in global markets, on the back of the agreement of the terms of the trade deal between the US and China. Japan's Econ Minister Kajiyama has said Japan could wind back some controls on exports to South Korea if there's progress in talks, although no bilateral ministerial meeting is scheduled for the remainder of this month. Looking ahead, key standouts come in the form of US housing starts, building permits, industrial production, and JOLTS job openings.

EURCHF – technical overview

The market remains very well capped into offers and the medium-term picture continues to favour the downside. A break back above 1.1060 would be required to take the immediate pressure off the downside. Below 1.0800 exposes the 1.0600 area.

• R2 1.1173 – 2 July high – Strong
• R1 1.1060 – 17 October high – Medium
• S1 1.0864 – 14 November low – Medium
• S2 1.0811 – 4 September/2019 low – Strong

EURCHF – fundamental overview

The SNB remains uncomfortable with Franc appreciation and continues to remind the market it will need to be careful about any attempts at trying to force an appreciation in the currency. But the SNB will also need to be careful right now, as its strategy to weaken the Franc is facing headwinds from a less certain global outlook. Any signs of sustained risk liquidation, will likely invite a very large wave of demand for the Franc that will put the SNB in the more challenging position of needing to back up its talk with action, that ultimately, may not prove to be as effective as it once was, given where we're at in the monetary policy cycle.

AUDUSD – technical overview

The market has been under pressure over the past several months, but has also been well supported on dips. The price action suggests we could be seeing the formation of a major base, though it would take a clear break back above 0.7100 to strengthen this outlook. In the interim, look for setbacks to continue to be well supported above 0.6700 on a weekly close basis.

• R2 0.7000 –Psychological – Strong
• R1 0.6940 – 13 December high – Medium
• S1 0.6800 – 10 December low – Medium
• S2 0.6754 – 29 November low – Strong

AUDUSD – fundamental overview

The Australian Dollar has come under pressure on Tuesday, with the market selling the currency on the back of the more dovish read of the latest RBA Minutes. The RBA reiterated a willingness to cut interest rates further if needed and mentioned that "members noted that the board had the ability to provide further stimulus to the economy, if required". Looking ahead, key standouts come in the form of US housing starts, building permits, industrial production, and JOLTS job openings.

USDCAD – technical overview

The longer-term structure remains constructive, with dips expected to be well supported for renewed upside, eventually back above the 2018/multi-month high at 1.3665. At this point, only a weekly close below the psychological barrier at 1.3000 would compromise this outlook.

• R2 1.3270 – 6 December high – Strong
• R1 1.3205 - 13 December high – Medium
• S1 1.3115 – 16 December low – Medium
• S2 1.3042 – 29 October low – Strong

USDCAD – fundamental overview

The Canadian Dollar has been better bid of late, helped along by the more dovish leaning Fed and upbeat sentiment in global markets. On Monday, the Loonie got another boost, perhaps on the back of news that PM Trudeau would be raising the 2019-20 budget deficit, and on the better than expected Canada existing home sales boost. Looking ahead, key standouts come in the form of US housing starts, building permits, industrial production, and JOLTS job openings. We also get Canada manufacturing sales.

NZDUSD – technical overview

Despite recent weakness, there's a case to be made for a meaningful bottom, with the market rallying out from longer-term cycle low area around 0.6200. As such, look for setbacks to be well supported in the days ahead, in anticipation of a continued recovery. Only a weekly close below 0.6200 would give reason for rethink. Back above 0.6500 strengthens the outlook and takes the immediate pressure off the downside, with focus now on a test of next meaningful resistance in the form of the July 2019 high at 0.6791 .

• R2 0.6664 – 26 July high – Medium
• R1 0.6636 –  13 December high – Medium
• S1 0.6522 – 11 December hlow – Medium
• S2 0.6466 – 4 November high – Strong

NZDUSD – fundamental overview

The New Zealand Dollar is holding up well on Tuesday, despite setbacks in the Australian Dollar. While Aussie is contending with a more dovish read of the RBA Minutes, Kiwi has benefited from the upbeat round of New Zealand data, consumer confidence, business confidence and activity outlook reads. Looking ahead, key standouts come in the form of the New Zealand GDT auction and US reads in the form of housing starts, building permits, industrial production, and JOLTS job openings.

US SPX 500 – technical overview

There have been signs of a major longer term top, after an exceptional run over the past decade. Any rallies from here, are expected to be very well capped, in favour of renewed weakness targeting an eventual retest of strong longer-term previous resistance turned support in the form of the 2015 high at 2140. The initial level of major support comes in at 3070, with a break below to strengthen the outlook. A monthly close above 3200 would be required to compromise the outlook.

• R2 3250 – Psychological – Strong
• R1 3201 – 16 December/Record high – Medium
• S1 3070 – 3 December low – Medium
• S2 3000 – Psychological – Strong

US SPX 500 – fundamental overview

Although we've seen the market extending to fresh record highs in 2019, with so little room for additional central bank accommodation, given an already depressed interest rate environment, the prospect for a meaningful extension of this record run, on easy money policy incentives, should no longer be as enticing to investors as it once was. Meanwhile, tension on the global trade front should continue to be a drag on investor sentiment despite any signs that would suggest otherwise. We recommend keeping a much closer eye on the equities to ten year yield comparative going forward, as the movement here is something that could be a major stress to the financial markets looking out.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overview

The 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, and suggests the market is in the early stages of a bullish move that follows a multi-month consolidation. The next major level of resistance comes in around 1600, while in the interim, look for any setbacks to be well supported above 1400.

• R2 1558 – 4 September/2019 high – Strong
• R1 1536 – 24 September high – Medium
• S1 1445 – 12 November low – Medium
• S2 1400 – Psychological – Strong

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overview

The yellow metal continues to be well supported on dips with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about exhausted monetary policy, extended global equities, political uncertainty, systemic risk and trade war threats. All of this should keep the commodity well supported, with many market participants also fleeing to the hard asset as the grand dichotomy of record high equities and record low yields comes to an unnerving climax.

BTCUSD – technical overview

The market continues to correct in the aftermath of a major surge in the second quarter of 2019. However, any setbacks should be very well supported in the 6,000 area, with a higher low sought out in favour of a bullish continuation back above the 2019 high and towards the record high from late 2017 further up. Ultimately, only a weekly close below 5,750 would compromise the constructive outlook.

• R2 10,468– 26 October high – Strong
• R1 8,806 – 11 October high – Medium
• S1 6,500 – Psychological – Strong
• S2 5,755 – Internal support/June 2018 – Strong

BTCUSD – fundamental overview

Bitcoin is going through a period of technical adjustment after the fierce Q2 run up, though we anticipate continued demand from institutional players starved for yield in a world where global equities are increasingly vulnerable. Plenty of demand is reported on dips down towards $6,000.

BTCUSD - Technical charts in detail

ETHUSD – technical overview

The market is in the process of a major correction after a surge in the second quarter of 2019. Look for setbacks to be well supported above of previous resistance turned support at 100 on a weekly close basis, in favour of the next major higher low and bullish resumption back towards and through the 2019 high up at 363. Ultimately, only a weekly close below 100 would compromise the outlook.

• R2 225 – 19 September high – Strong
• R1 200 – Psychological – Medium
• S1 130 – 16 December low – Medium
• S2 102 – 6 February/2019 low  – Strong

ETHUSD – fundamental overview

Profit taking in the aftermath of the rapid Q2 appreciation has triggered a healthy period of correction and consolidation, while critique of the space from the likes of President Trump and Fed Chair Powell, along with worry associated with fallout in the global economy, are stories that could continue to keep the more risk correlated crypto asset weighed down into the end of the year. Risk off in the global economy is expected to result in ETH underperformance relative to Bitcoin.