Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 108.501 | EURUSD 1.09361 | AUDUSD 0.63511 | NZDUSD 0.60907 | USDCAD 1.39578 | USDCHF 0.96534 | GBPUSD 1.24675 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0600 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.09668 | 1.09251
USDJPY 108.527 | 107.919
GBPUSD 1.24884 | 1.24432
USDCHF 0.96670 | 0.96494
AUDUSD 0.63557 | 0.63281
NZDUSD 0.60868 | 0.60642
USDCAD 1.40006 | 1.39251
EURCHF 1.05637 | 1.05581
EURGBP 0.87679 | 0.87633
EURJPY 118.763 | 118.039
For Today
- GBP: Opening unchanged the market slipped back from the 1.2470 level testing through to make the early high above the 1.2475 area the market didn’t hold too long before falling back to what became a base line for the session along 1.2455 level and struggling till late in the session before pushing through for another bank holiday London session holding just above the 1.2470 level. Topside offers into the 1.2500 area before weak stops are likely to appear on a push through the 1.2510-20 areas and opening the market to weak resistance around the sentimental levels and likely to be open to a medium term run through to the 1.2800 level. Downside bids light through to the 1.2300 level with weak support in the area increasing around the sentimental levels before stronger support appears from the 1.2200 level through to the 1.2100 area.
- JPY: A quiet sell off through the Tokyo session with the market opening around the 108.50 level and holding for the first hour before Tokyo moved in and the first dip through to the 108.25 area was eventually broken through after a few hours to test the figure level and as with the first move struggled for a few hours before pushing through the 108.00 figure level testing steadily through to the 107.90 area for the move into the London session, Downside bids light through to the 107.50 level with bids likely to increase through to the 107.00 level with strong stops on any dip through the 106.80 level otherwise the market is lightly populated between the 108-109 levels, Topside offers light through to the 109.50-70 level with possibility of weak stops on a break through with increasing offers into the 110.00-20 level and stops again reappearing for any move above there with congestion then appearing in depth to slow any move.
- AUD: Opening in line with Friday’s close and rising towards the 0.6360 area before quickly dropping as AUDJPY selling moved in on the opening of Tokyo and comments from Tourism minister, testing quickly to the 0.6330 level the market saw the AUD back to the 0.6340 level however, with no Sydney the market just ranged around the level through to London, Topside offers increasing from the 0.6380 level through the 0.6400 area with stops likely on a break above the 0.6420 area however, with a bank holiday session for the most part any push higher is limited. Downside bids light back through the 63 cents levels and weak stops through the 0.6280 area and the 62 cents very vulnerable.
- EUR: Wide opening saw the market dipping from the 1.0960 level to the 1.0940 area before settling down to another round of bank holidays in Christian countries with the market drifting through to test the 1.0925 level before finding a base and slowly rising towards the opening levels again. Downside bids light through to the 1.0800 area where the possibility of strong congestion however, a push through again exposes the lows to further tests especially if the situation with the virus continues to worsen. Topside offers through into the 1.1000 level are likely to be limited but increasing through the sentimental level and into the 1.1080-1.1100 level with weak stops likely on a push through the 1.1120.
Overnight News
AUD:
Tourism Minister Simon Birmingham cannot guarantee international flights will have resumed by Christmas
Australia’s Medical chief says Anti-virus curbs must continue – BBG
OIL:
WTI opened up 8% then traded lower almost 2% before recovering with the market disappointed by the agreement.
Iran’s Zanganeh: Agreement will be implemented from May 1 – DJ
Zanganeh: Mexico to cut 100k bd in May and June – DJ
Zanganeh: US will reduce output on behalf of Mexico – DJ
Kuwaiti Minister: OPEC+ Agrees to cut close to 10m bd – DJ
OPEC+ Waiting to hear more on oil output reductions from G20 – DJ
US, Brazil, Canada to contribute 3.7mbdto output reduction – DJ
Saudi Oil Minister: Kingdom to cut oil output to 8.5mbd – DJ
Saudi Oil Minister: OPEC+ Cut from April close to 12.5mbd
TRY:
Turkey cuts banks FX swap limits with non-resident investors – BBG
G-20:
G-20 to freeze sovereign debt payments for poor Countries – FT
USD:
America should be ready for 18mths of shutdowns in long, hard road ahead – DJ
EUR:
ECB’s Guindos says genuine recovery might not show until 2021 – BBG
Guindos: Euro-area recession to be more severe vs. world’s – BBG
Today’s Data
Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised – R | All timings GMT/UTC
JPY Bank Lending Ex-Trusts YoY (MAR) A 2.2% | P 2.2%
JPY Bank Lending incl. trusts YoY (MAR) A 2.0% | P 2.1%
CNY New Yuan Loans CNY (MAR) A 2850b | C 1800.0b | P 905.7b
All Day CNY Aggregate Financing CNY (MAR) A | C 3140b | P 855.4b
All Day CNY Foreign Direct Investment YoY (MAR) A | P -25.6%
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Opening around the 1.2465 area and choppy through to Tokyo as Easter bank holidays started to kick in, the market eventually lost the early attempt to the 1.2480 level and tested in the same manner to the 1.2440 to define the Asian range in the first hour, A steady rise through to the 1.2465 area and a slow range through to the London session with initial buying after the expected poor numbers to test through to the highs just before the NYK session testing into the upper 1.2480’s before drifting off a little and dipping for the US numbers before recovering and spending the rest of the session slipping through to the 1.2470 area for a slow move to the close.
- JPY: A very quiet day for the USDJPY with Easter holidays impacting the pair, opening around the 108.50 area the market saw early highs for the day into the Tokyo session testing the 108.60 level before drifting off through to late in the Tokyo session testing the 108.35 level and this formed the base for the balance of the session with the market slowly rising back to the 108.45 level and then drifting through to the close around the 108.40 area and those 3 numbers showing how quiet the market outside of Asia was.
- AUD: dipping from the opening around the 0.6340 level and quickly trading to the 0.6310 area for the los of the day into the Tokyo session the market then pushed back through the Asian session to the opening level and once the market moved to the London session topped out for the day just short of the 0.6370 level before drifting back to the 0.6350 area and ranging around the level through to the close.
- EUR: Reasonably quiet with the market opening around the 1.0930 level and then dipping through into Tokyo to test the low of the day around the 1.0920 area and a steady rise through to the London session pushing the 1.0945 area eventually making the high of the day just through the 1.0950 area and then holding through to the close around the 1.0940 level in quiet trading.
Yesterday’s Premiership Results
GBP RICS House Price Balance (MAR) A 11.0% | C 10.0% | P 29.0%
JPY Kuroda Speech at Branch Managers meeting
EUR German Trade Balance (FEB) A 20.8b | C 16.5b | P 13.9b
GBP Construction Output YoY (FEB) A -2.7% | C 0.2% | P 1.6% | R 0.5%
GBP Industrial Production YoY (FEB) A -2.8% | C -3.0% | P -2.9% | R -2.8%
GBP Manufacturing Production YoY (FEB) A -3.9% | C -4.0% | P -3.6% | R -3.7%
GBP Monthly GDP 3M/3M (FEB) A -0.1% | C 0.1% | P 0.0k%
GBP Monthly GDP MoM (FEB) A -0.1% | C -0.1% | P 0.0%
GBP Trade Balance (FEB) A -2793m | C 1000m | P 2409m
GBP Trade Balance Non-EU (FEB) A -2793m | C -1000m | P 2232m
GBP Visible Trade Balance (FEB) A -5579m | C -6000m | P -2720m
JPY Machine Tool Orders YoY (MAR P) A -40.8%| P -29.6%
CAD Net Change in Employment (MAR) A -1010k | C -500k | P 30.3k
CAD Unemployment Rate (MAR) A 7.8% | C 7.4% | P 5.6%
CAD Full Time Employment Change (MAR) A -474k | P 37.6k
CAD Hourly Wage Rate Permanent Employees A 6.7% | C 4.4% | P 4.3%
USD Initial Jobless Claims (APR 4) A 6606k | C 5000k | P 6648k | R 6867k
USD Continuing Claims (MAR 28) A 7455k | P 3059k
USD U. of Mich Sentiment (APR P) A 71.0 | C 75.0 | P 89.1
USD Baker Hughes US Rig Count (APR 10) A 602 | P 664
Best Regards
Andy
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