Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 107.757 | EURUSD 1.0910 | AUDUSD 0.63831 | NZDUSD 0.61069 | USDCAD 1.39035 | USDCHF 0.96755 | GBPUSD 1.25047 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0600 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.09480 | 1.09002
USDJPY 107.770 | 1.07538
GBPUSD 1.25699 | 1.24964
USDCHF 0.96770 | 0.9641
AUDUSD 0.64324 | 0.63724
NZDUSD 0.61283 | 0.60924
USDCAD 1.39042 | 1.3865
EURCHF 1.05579 | 1.05509
EURGBP 0.87357 | 0.87055
EURJPY 117.935 | 117.466
For Today
- GBP: A steady climb from the lows on the opening through to the 1.2530 level into early Tokyo from just above the figure, a slight drift followed by a stronger rally taking just as much time as the first to push through the 1.2560 level and the market then struggling through to the grey hour holding around the 1.2565 level and unable for the moment to push the 1.2570 level. Topside light offers through to the 1.2600 level with congestion then beginning to thicken through to the 1.2650 level before weakness again appears and the market opens to the 1.2800 level and possibly stronger offers. Downside bids light back through the 1.2500 level with bids likely to be building through the 1.2400-1.2350 area with weak stops on any move through the 1.2300.
- JPY: A light drift from the open9ing highs around the 107.75 area to test through to the 107.50 area however, from there it just ranged in an ever-decreasing movement to narrow down to the grey hours holding the 107.65 level. Downside bids light through to the 107.50 level with bids likely to increase through to the 107.00 level with strong stops on any dip through the 106.80 level otherwise the market is lightly populated between the 108-109 levels, Topside offers light through to the 109.50-70 level with possibility of weak stops on a break through with increasing offers into the 110.00-20 level and stops again reappearing for any move above there with congestion then appearing in depth to slow any move.
- AUD: Opening on its lows the Oz held around the 0.6380 area through into the Tokyo session before starting the first of two light runs higher, the first run like Cable saw the Oz push above the 64 cents level then holding around the area into midsession before running a little more firmly through to the 0.6430 area and then ranging in the 0.6420-30 area in a long run to the grey hour, Weak stops triggered and cleared but congestive offers then appear through the 0.6450 level and not until the market clears the 0.6460 area is there any chance of a run to the 65 cents level, a break above that level will see possibly a knee jerk reaction and the focus on the Virus outweighed for the moment as USD comes under pressure. Downside bids light through the 63 cents level with weak stops on any dip through the 0.6280 level and opening another test through to the 60 cents handle with stronger bids close to the 0.6020-00 levels.
- EUR: A quiet rise through into the Tokyo session from the opening around the 1.0910 level to hold deep into the session around the 1.0920 area, USD selling saw the Euro move higher with the rest of the pairs and the Euro pushing through the 1.0940 level and slowly rising to just short of the 1.0950 level for the move into the London session, Downside bids light through to the 1.0800 area where the possibility of strong congestion however, a push through again exposes the lows to further tests especially if the situation with the virus continues to worsen. Topside offers through into the 1.1000 level are likely to be limited but increasing through the sentimental level and into the 1.1080-1.1100 level with weak stops likely on a push through the 1.1120.
Overnight News
NZD:
NZ treasury releases economic scenarios for lockdown – BBG
Robertson: Can keep jobless rate below 10% with added support – BBG
NZ treasury: Jobless rate may rise to 13% in best scenario – BBG
NZ treasury: GDP may fall as much as 33% in year to Mar 21 – BBG
NZ treasury: GDP to fall at least 13% in year to Mar 21 – BBG
ANZ expects RBNZ to increase QE program to as much as NZD60b – BBG
AUD:
Josh Frydenberg Treasury: Australia jobless rate could be at 15% without support – BBG
Australian business confidence plummets to lowest level on record – BBG
GBP:
UK likely to announce lockdown extension this week says Raab – BBG
EUR:
Italy’s crisis funds may come too late for desperate businesses – BBG
Today’s Data
Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised – R | All timings GMT/UTC
AUD NAB Business Confidence (MAR) A -66 | P -4
CNY Trade Balance CNY (MAR) A 139.42b | C 175.0b | P -42.59b
CNY Trade Balance (Mar) A 19.9b | C 19.72b | P -7.09b
All Day NZD REINZ House Sales YoY (MAR) A | P 9.2%
All Day CHF Real Estate Index Family Homes (1Q) A | P 475
1230 USD Export Price Index YoY (MAR) A | P -1.3%
1230 USD Import Price Index ex-petroleum MoM (MAR) A | -0.2% | P 0.2%
1505 USD Fed’s Bullard holds a Covid-19 Briefing Via Zoom
1630 USD Fed’s Evans Speaks in Pittsburgh
1900 USD Fed’s Bostic to Speak to Alabama Works
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Opening quietly and slipping back from the 1.2475 area to base along the 1.2455 level through to late in Asia only to find London quick buyers to quickly rush through to the 1.2535 area to make the high of the day in what was still a bank holiday for most countries, slipping back to the opening levels for the move through into the NYK session the market slowly but surely made its way back above the 1.2500 level tor the run to the close dipping back from a second attempt towards the high.
- JPY: Opening on its highs the USDPY pushed above the 108.50 level before starting a slow but steady decline through the Asian session and into the London first hour testing the 107.80 level before recovering through to the 108.00 level and holding quietly through the NYK session before breaking the lows and triggering weak stops on a di[p to the 107.50 level for a light bounce to finish the day around the 107.75 area.
- AUD: A reasonably quiet session for the Oz with the market opening around the 0.6350 area and dipping into the Tokyo session to hold the 0.6330 level and range around the 0.6335 level through to the London opening, London were quick buyers to push the market through to the 0.6360 level before3e drifting off again to the 0.6330 area for the last time and the NYK session steadily took the market higher through to late in the session initially pushing through the 0.6370 level and pausing through to the end of London then running for a second time to test to the 0.6385 level pause then take the high to just short of the 0.6410 level in a quick stab higher before drifting back a little for the move to the close.
- EUR: A wide opening saw the market trading to the 1.0960 level on the opening before settling back and holding in the 109.30-40 area through to the London open, a quick rise on the London opening saw the high made for the day on a test to the 1.0965 area before dropping back again just as quickly after an hour of not getting anywhere the market dropped back just as quick and then followed through on a dip through to the 1.0910 area into the NYK session the downside wasn’t finished with as the close in London saw the Euro chased through the 1.09000 level before bouncing and finishing the day just above the figure level having failed to dent the 1.0890 level.
Yesterday’s Premiership Results
JPY Bank Lending Ex-Trusts YoY (MAR) A 2.2% | P 2.2%
JPY Bank Lending incl. trusts YoY (MAR) A 2.0% | P 2.1%
CNY New Yuan Loans CNY (MAR) A 2850b | C 1800.0b | P 905.7b
Best Regards
Andy
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