Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 107.218 | EURUSD 1.09818 | AUDUSD 0.64423 | NZDUSD 0.60941 | USDCAD 1.38816 | USDCHF 0.96043 | GBPUSD 1.26256 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.09939 | 1.09734
USDJPY 107.238 | 106.929
GBPUSD 1.26336 | 1.26035
USDCHF 0.96121 | 0.95964
AUDUSD 0.64420 | 0.64031
NZDUSD 0.61104 | 0.60688
USDCAD 1.39104 | 1.38759
EURCHF 1.05478 | 1.0547
EURGBP 0.87109 | 0.86942
EURJPY 117.880 | 117.414
For Today
- GBP: No good news anywhere really and so we see the ebbs and flows as pairs drift back and forth however, Cable having lost a lot in early parts of the spreading of the virus is recovering overall, today saw a slow market with the market dipping on the opening through to the 1.2620 level before rising into early Tokyo to test the 1.2630 level and a slow limited drift through to the grey hour holding around the 1.2610 level in weak trading. Topside weakness on a solid push through the 1.2650 area with weak stops on a push through the level and limited congestion on any rise to the 1.2700 level with stronger congestion likely on any test of the 1.2750 area with likely increasing resistance through to the 1.2800 area. Downside bids likely weak through to the 1;2550 level with weak stops through the level, congestion likely through that level and continuing through to the 1.2400 area with any dip through the level likely to see stronger support appearing. While some are projecting massive GDP swings or dangerous levels of debt, this is all supposition and the world has never been in this situation and relies on anecdotal evidence at best, don’t believe everything you read.
- JPY: Overall a very quiet session for the USDJPY with the market opening weakly around the 107.20 area and moving through to the Tokyo session slipping steadily in early morning trading to test through the 106.95 level and defining the range for the day, a bounce of the lows back to the 107.20 level and the range then started to tighten down to trade around the 107.10 area for the move through to the grey hour, Downside bids light through to the 107.00 level with weak stops on any dip through the 106.80 level with very limited congestion through to the 106.20 level and the market seeing only slightly stronger bids through to the 105.80 level with congestion likely to increase below that level. Topside offers light through to the 109.00 level with weak stops not figuring that much on any push above the 108.00 or 109.00 levels with resistance increasing on the move above the 109.00 level with stronger bids above 109.50-110.00
- AUD: AUDJPY selling seemed to dominate the session for the most part with the Oz under pressure from light USD buying with the early high around the 0.6442 area dipping steadily through to the grey hour testing the 0.6405 level before stabilizing, congestive offers then appear through the 0.6450 level and not until the market clears the 0.6460 area is there any chance of a run to the 65 cents level, a break above that level will see possibly a knee jerk reaction and the focus on the Virus outweighed for the moment as USD comes under pressure. Downside bids light through the 63 cents level with weak stops on any dip through the 0.6280 level and opening another test through to the 60 cents handle with stronger bids close to the 0.6020-00 levels.
- EUR: Holding its own for the most part from the high open9ing around the 1.0990 level and then ranging through the session to the final hour trading around the 1.0985 area, a light dip through to the 1.0975 level for the move into the grey hour saw the market stabilize a little. , Downside bids light through to the 1.0800 area where the possibility of strong congestion however, a push through again exposes the lows to further tests especially if the situation with the virus continues to worsen. Topside offers through into the 1.1000 level are likely to be limited but increasing through the sentimental level and into the 1.1080-1.1100 level with weak stops likely on a push through the 1.1120.
Overnight News
AUD:
Consumer confidence in Oz follows the Kiwis, with sentiment dropping by most in 47yr history
Hoarding boom is over; CBA says shoppers have closed their wallets – MEA
Don’t bet on China saving us this time, Rudd warns – AFR
Australian economy to suffer AUD80b hit from virus – IMF
Australia’s large bond sale puts debt monetization on menu – BBG
USD:
Kansas City Fed: If WTI were to average $30 per barrel, roughly 40% of oil and gas companies would be insolvent in 12mths
API reports US Crude stockpiles rose 13.14m BBL last week
Trump halts US funding of WHO – Trade the news
Trump questions America’s generosity put to best use via WHO funding – Trade the news
GBP:
UK economy COULD shrink by 35% with 2m job losses, warns OBR – GUA
CAD:
Public Health Agency: Government of Canada updates mandatory requirements for travellers entering Canada
PHA: Any traveller arriving in Canada can’t isolate or quarantine in place where they’ll be in contact with vulnerable people
PHA: Upon arrival every traveller needs to confirm they have suitable place to isolate or quarantine with access to basic necessities
PHA: Maximum penalties include fine of up to CAD750k or imprisonment for 6months, or both, for failure to comply with order
CNY:
China’s Cinema operators lament as top government body pushes prolonged closures – Variety
Today’s Data
Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised – R | All timings GMT/UTC
AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence (APR) A -17.7% | P -3.8%
1100 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (APR 10) A | P -17.9%
1230 USD Retail Sales Advance MoM (MAR) A | C -8.0% | P -0.5%
1230 USD Retail Sales Control Group (MAR) A | C -1.8% | P 0.0%
1230 USD Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas (MAR) A | C -6.2% | P -0.2%
1300 CAD Existing Home Sales MoM (MAR) A | P 5.9%
1315 USD Industrial Production MoM (MAR) A | C -4.2% | P 0.6%
1315 USD Manufacturing (SIC) Production A | C -3.6% | P 0.1%
1400 CAD BoC Rate Decision (APR 15) A | C 0.25% | P 0.25%
1400 USD Business Inventories (FEB) A | C -0.4% | P -0.1%
1400 USD NAHB Housing Market Index (APR) A | C 58 | P 72
1430 USD DOE US Crude Oil Inventories (APR 10) A | P 15177k
1700 USD Fed’s Bostic to Speak via Zoom to Birmingham Clubs
1800 USD US Fed Reserve’s Beige Book
2000 USD Net Long-term TIC flows (FEB) A | P 20.9b
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Opening on its lows around the 1.2500 level and after a brief push through to the 1.2530 level the market tested lightly back through the figure and into the Tokyo session pushing quickly through back again to the 30 area, after a brief pause the market continued its rise and teste through to the 1.2560 level and then slowly pushed through to the London opening testing through the 1.2570 area before London sent the market back to the 1.2550 areas to hold steady through to the NYK session pushing lightly through to the 1.2530 area and then recovering to just below the 1.2570 area, NYK were steady USD sellers through the session and Cable pushed steadily in waves through to the 1.2650 level before running into some light barriers and the market slipped back to hold around the 1.2625 areas through to the close.
- JPY: USD selling dominated the day across the board with the early part of the Asian session seeing the opening highs quickly wasted as the market slipped through to the 107.55 level from 107.75, the move through to the London session saw a slow recovery with the market moving into London almost regaining the opening levels before slipping lower, the push through the 107.60 level saw a quick dip from weak buyers cutting out and the market testing the 107.40 level usually a congested area however, after a brief bounce the market ran through into the NYK opening and very little to stop the market from making an attempt on the 107.00 level with London out of the way and the limited bounce to the 107.20 level for the close.
- AUD: Making the lows just after opening the market lightly tested through the 0.6380 area and then started to rally from the Tokyo opening to push through the 0.6400 area in early morning, a brief pause and a second push saw the market testing quickly to the 0.6420 level and eventually squeezing through to test the 0.6430 level to hold the 0.6420-30 area through to the London session and the sellers, by midmorning in London the Oz was back testing the 0.6380 level again and while it held again the move through to the NYK session saw limited buying taking the market back to the highs and this time pushing for the close and leaving it just above the 0.6440 level.
- EUR: Rising lightly from the opening around the 1.0910 level to test the 1.0925 area the move into midsession saw a second push a little quicker to test towards the 1.0950 area before drifting a little from the London opening, testing back to the 1.0920 area the market caught some stronger buying in light trading to test above the 1.0950 level and once the market moved into the NYK session the USD sellers appeared and the market slowly rose through to the close around the 1.0980-90 level.
Yesterday’s Premiership Results
AUD NAB Business Confidence (MAR) A -66 | P -4
CNY Trade Balance CNY (MAR) A 139.42b | C 175.0b | P -42.59b
CNY Trade Balance (Mar) A 19.9b | C 19.72b | P -7.09b
All Day NZD REINZ House Sales YoY (MAR) A -4.8% | P 9.2%
USD Export Price Index YoY (MAR) A -3.6% | P -1.3%
USD Fed’s Bullard holds a Covid-19 Briefing Via Zoom
USD Fed’s Evans Speaks in Pittsburgh
USD Fed’s Bostic to Speak to Alabama Works
Best Regards
Andy
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this Blog, whether by LMAX, its employees, partners or contributors, does not constitute investment advice nor has it been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the material contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Whilst information provided on this Blog may help with your investment research you must consider carefully whether you should make (or refrain from making) investment or other decisions based on what you see without doing further research on the investments you are interested in. Participating in this Blog cannot be a substitute for obtaining advice from an appropriate expert independent adviser who takes into account your circumstances and specific investment needs in selected investments that are appropriate for you. LMAX has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.
LMAX will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the material produced in this Blog was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources.
Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk.
If you currently hold an account with LMAX for the purposes of trading FX and CFD’s, you are encouraged to use a different Username and Password to access the Blog or any other online systems. The Blog is a place to learn, discuss and share information and ideas with Blog followers. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX or any other FX, Spread Betting and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.