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Andy Harrison

Good morning,

LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT

For Today

• GBP: Another slow drift lower through the Asian session with the highs set just after the opening before drifting from the 1.2530 level through to test the 1.2460 level for the move into the grey hour, downside congestion through to the 1.2350 area from current levels could slow any further losses however, a push through the 1.2300 level again opens the downside with limited bids around the sentimental levels, topside offers light through to the 1.2650 level with stronger resistance into the level before weak stops appear and sentimental levels hold limited orders to the 1.2800 level.
• JPY: USDJPY saw a steady climb higher with the market moving off the early lows around the 107.35 area and pushing into the Tokyo opening holding around the 107.50 level before increasing the pace of the rise [pushing in steps through to the 107.70 level, 107.80, and then 107.90 where the market paused for several hours before pushing for the 108.00 level and holding through to the grey hour, Downside bids light through to the 107.00 level with weak stops on any dip through the 106.80 level with very limited congestion through to the 106.20 level and the market seeing only slightly stronger bids through to the 105.80 level with congestion likely to increase below that level. Topside offers light through to the 109.00 level with weak stops not figuring that much on any push above the 108.00 or 109.00 levels with resistance increasing on the move above the 109.00 level with stronger bids above 109.50-110.00
• AUD: A small drift through into the Tokyo session from the opening highs around the 0.6320 level before a surprise employment number pushed the market away from the 63 cents level back to the opening level, which to note is a measurement of employment between 1-14 Mar so truly remarkable even if some are asking how. The market dipped again and ran through to the 0.6290 level and held for a short period before rushing through to the 0.6270 area bouncing a little but still moving through to the grey hour pushing through the lows to test into the 0.6260’s, downside bids light through sentimental levels and likely to continue in that way until the 60 cent level with possibly the round number generating extra support, a push through the level is likely to see patchy levels with congestion around the 0.5950 level and each sentimental level possibly increasing in support, Topside offer s light back through to the 0.6350 level with light congestion returning and then stronger offers on any push through the 64 cents level into 0.6450, a push through is likely to see stronger stops appearing and the 65 cent level tested quickly.
• EUR: A slow slip through the 1.0900 level with very little support saw the Euro drifting from the opening around the 1.0910 level and testing the 1.0865 area for the move into the grey hour, Downside bids light through to the 1.0800 area where the possibility of strong congestion however, a push through again exposes the lows to further tests especially if the situation with the virus continues to worsen. Topside offers through into the 1.1000 level are likely to be limited but increasing through the sentimental level and into the 1.1080-1.1100 level with weak stops likely on a push through the 1.1120.

Overnight News

CAD:
BoC announces 50b provincial bond purchase program
AUD:
Australia unexpectedly adds jobs, unemployment edges up to 5.2%
RBA: AUD87b surplus cash on ES accounts
RBA: Injects AUD330m in liquidity at daily operations
NZD:
NZ March Job ads slump 29% from February – BNZ
Orr: We haven’t ruled out negative interest rates
Hawkesby: QE Program equates to 150bps easing
Orr: Negative rates not off the table beyond 12mths
MXN:
Fitch downgrades Mexico to BBB- outlook stable – FII

Harry Hindsight

• GBP: All change again, opening around the 1.26215 level the market managed a minor push above the 1.2630 level into the early part of Tokyo before slowly drifting in a quiet session through to the London session and the USD buyers appeared with the market initially taking its time to push through the 1.2600 level through to the 1.2580-70 area before quickening its descent through to the 1.2500 level to find a base through into the NYK session, NYK were initially USD buyers testing just above the 1.2430 level and having hit that low pushing through to late in the session recapturing the 1.25 handle and testing the 1.2570 level before drifting for the final hours into the close.
• JPY: A limited range through the Asian session with the market giving ground initially from the opening 107.15 level and testing through to the 106.95 area for the low of the day before settling in to range around the 107.05 area through to the London session, USD buying shortly after the opening saw the USDJPY quickly pu8sh through to challenge the 107.50 level and the 107.40-50 seemed to be the days range for the most part apart from NYK opening when the USDJPY ran quickly through to the 107.80 level before dropping back in the same fashion to range through to the close.
• AUD: Dipping from the opening highs around the 0.6440 level and slowly drifting through to the 0.6400 area for the move into the London opening, USD buying dominated early London and the market tested steadily through to the 0.6320 level in the first 2 hours before ranging to NYK before dipping to the lows just above the 0.6280 level and recovering a little to the 0.6350 and limping to the close.
• EUR: Initially resistant to the drift that the other currencies faced however it did move off the 1.0990 level to move into the London session holding the 1.0975 area when London entered and pushed it firmly to the 1.0930 level and pausing for a couple of hours before another dip and attempt to push through the 1.0900 level, NYK opening saw the figure break and the market quickly trigger weak stops through to the 1.0855 level before recovering steadily to finish the day just above the 1.0900 level.

Yesterday’s Premiership Results
AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence (APR) A -17.7% | P -3.8%
USD MBA Mortgage Applications (APR 10) A -7.3% | P -17.9%
USD Retail Sales Advance MoM (MAR) A -8.7% | C -8.0% | P -0.5% | R 0.4%
USD Retail Sales Control Group (MAR) A 1.7% | C -1.8% | P 0.0%
USD Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas (MAR) A -3.1% | C -6.2% | P -0.2%
CAD Existing Home Sales MoM (MAR) A -14.3% | P 5.9%
USD Industrial Production MoM (MAR) A -5.4% | C -4.2% | P 0.6%
USD Manufacturing (SIC) Production A -6.3% | C -3.6% | P 0.1%
CAD BoC Rate Decision (APR 15) A 0.25% | C 0.25% | P 0.25%
USD Business Inventories (FEB) A -0.4% | C -0.4% | P -0.1%
USD NAHB Housing Market Index (APR) A 30 | C 58 | P 72
USD DOE US Crude Oil Inventories (APR 10) A 19248k | P 15177k
USD Fed’s Bostic to Speak via Zoom to Birmingham Clubs
USD US Fed Reserve’s Beige Book
USD Net Long-term TIC flows (FEB) A 49.9b | P 20.9b

Best Regards
Andy

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