Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 104.609 | EURUSD 1.16732 | AUDUSD 0.70284 | NZDUSD 0.66126 | USDCAD 1.33261 | USDCHF 0.91591 | GBPUSD 1.29306 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.16945 | 1.16684
USDJPY 104.627 | 104.192
GBPUSD 1.29397 | 1.29044
USDCHF 0.91590 | 0.9140
AUDUSD 0.70549 | 0.70228
NZDUSD 0.66420 | 0.66172
USDCAD 1.33333 | 1.32944
EURCHF 1.06893 | 1.06794
EURGBP 0.90483 | 0.90246
EURJPY 122.133 | 121.667
For Today
- GBP: A reasonably quiet range through the Asian session for Cable with the market rising from the closing levels around the 1.2930 area to push the 1.2940 area before drifting off the level each time to the 1.2925 area, the move into the grey hours saw the market starting to break lower through to the 1.2915 area. Downside bids light through to the 1.2900 area where stronger bids remain, with weak stops likely through the level and opening the downside only to the 1.2850 where stronger bids are likely to move through and the support growing for the moment at each sentimental level. Topside offers light through to the 1.3100 level before limited offers move in, only once the market tests towards the 1.3200 level do the offers increase with strong stops suspected through the level.
- JPY: Steady USDJPY selling through the session with the market opening on its highs and drifting into the Tokyo session holding around the 104.60 area, Tokyo were steady sellers through to the 104.35 level into the Grey hours looking weak, Downside bids strengthen into the 104.20-00 level with possibly bottom pickers appearing below the figure level however weak stops through the 103.80 area could see a quick stab lower through to the 102.00 level before bids start to reappear. Topside offers light on a push through the 105.00 level with limited offers into the 105.80-106.20 area and the possibility of congestion then continuing through to the 106.40-80 area. And stronger offers thereafter.
- AUD: Dipping from the opening towards the 0.7020 area before starting a slw climb through to the 0.7040 area for the move into the Tokyo session, rising quickly after the Tokyo fix to test the 0.7055 area the market then held around the 0.7050 level in a tight range before dipping into the grey hours towards the 0.7040 level. Topside offers into the 0.7140-60 area unchanged before some light weakness appears however, 0.7180-0.7200 area sees stronger offers and 0.7220 level likely to see some congestion with stop losses through the level to open a quick move to stronger offers around the 0.7250 area. Downside bids light through to the 0.7060-40 area with stronger bids likely to appear on any move to test the 0.70000 areas, while there may be some weak stops on a move through the 0.6980 area the market is likely to see plenty of congestion into the 0.6950 area and increasing bids beyond.
- EUR: A limited rise through into the Tokyo session testing the 1.1680 area before dropping back to the 1.1670 opening area to start a slower rise through the level and continuing into late session pushing above the 1.1690 areas before drifting through to the grey hours testing back to the 1.1680 level again, topside offers light through to the 1.1750 area with weak stops likely on a push through the 1.1760 area before running into further light stops from the 1.1780-1.1820 area with stronger stops above the level, downside bids light through to the 1.1650 area where strong bids are likely to be present with the market likely containing further buyers through to the 1.1600-20 area, weak stops likely on a break of the 1.1580 area with some mild breakout stops likely to appear however, downside bids then start to improve and the market has to be concerned with Virus runs in other countries not just Europe.
Overnight News
AUD:
Why RBA’s QE will have a big impact – AFR
RBA to deploy historic QE amid distractions – DJ
EUR:
European Banks index close to testing all-time lows
Merkel Says EU should have acted sooner as Virus costs mount – BBG
EU Chief says spread of virus infections may overwhelm healthcare systems – AFP
Merkel says EU borders must remain open despite COVID
NZD:
NZ Consumer confidence jumped to 10 months high in October – ANZ
OIL/CNY:
China’s negative effect on crude may flow through supply side – BBG
CNY:
China pledges quality growth, Tech powerhouse in 5-year plan – BBG
Today’s Data
JPY Jobs/applications ratio (SEP) A 1.03 | C 1.04 | P 1.04
JPY Tokyo Core CPI YoY (OCT) A -0.5% | C -0.5% | P -0.2%
JPY CPI Tokyo Ex Food and Energy MoM (OCT) A 0.3% | P -0.1%
JPY Industrial Production MoM (SEP) A 4.0% | C 3.2% | P 1.0%
AUD PPI YoY (Q3) A -0.4% | P -0.4%
AUD PPI QoQ (Q3) A 0.4% | P -1.2%
AUD Private Sector Credit MoM (SEP) A 0.1% | P -0.1%
0700 GBP Nationwide HPI YoY (OCT) A | C 5.2% | P 5.0%
0700 GBP Nationwide HPI MoM (OCT) A | C 0.4% | P 0.9%
0700 EUR German Retail Sales MoM (SEP) A | C -0.8% | P 3.1%
0700 EUR GfK German Consumer Climate A | P -1.6
0730 CFH Retail Sales YoY (SEP) A | P 2.5%
0800 CFH KOF Leading Indicators (OCT) A | C 107.0 | P 113.8
0800 EUR Spanish GDP QoQ Q3 A | C 13.5% | P -17.8%
0900 EUR German GDP YoY (Q3) A | C -5.2% | P -11.3%
0900 EUR German GDP QoQ (Q3) A | C 7.3% | P -9.7%
1000 EUR Eurozone Core CPI YoY A | P 0.2%
1000 EUR Eurozone CPI MoM A | P 0.1%
1000 EUR Eurozone CPI YoY (OCT) A | C -0.3% | P -0.3%
1000 EUR Eurozone GDP QoQ A | P -11.8%
1000 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate (SEP) A 8.3% | P 8.1%
1230 USD Core PCE Price Index YOY (SEP) A | C 1.7% | P 1.6%
1230 USD Core PCE Price Index MoM (SEP) A | C 0.2% | P 0.3%
1230 USD Employment Cost Index QoQ A | C 0.5% | P 0.5%
1230 USD PCE Price Index YoY (SEP) A | P 1.4%
1230 USD PCE Price Index MoM (SEP) A | P 0.3%
1230 USD Personal Spending MoM (SEP) A | C 1.0% | P 1.0%
1230 CAD GDP MoM (AUG) A | C 0.9% | P 3.0%
1230 CAD RMPI MoM (SEP) A | P 3.2%
1345 USD Chicago PMI (OCT) A | C 58.0 | P 62.4
1400 USD Michigan Consumer Expectations (OCT) A | P 78.8
1400 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment (OCT) A | C 81.2 | P 81.2
1700 USD US Baker Hughes Total Oil Rig Count A | P 287
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: A slow rise from the opening around the 1.2985 area started to challenge the 1.3000 level late into the Asian session eventually pushing through and running to the 1.3025 area for the high of the day into the grey hours, a drift into the London session the market again pushed for the high on the opening however, with increasing talks of complete lockdowns in France, German and the UK the USD had a free rein on the market and the Cable dipped through into the NYK session struggling initially with the 1.2950 level before triggering some weak stops on a break to the 1.2900 area dipping through quickly to the 1.2885 level and then bouncing back for a slow rise through to the 1.2930 area with the Euro dragging on the Cable a little and finishing the day around the 1.2930 area.
- JPY: Opening quietly and trading around the 104.30 level the move through into the Tokyo session saw a limited range, once Tokyo moved in the market ran through to the 104.50 level steadily held for a long period before dropping off in a tight channelled move through to the 104.00 level for the low of the day deep into the London session, from the lows the reverse move occurred pushing through to the 104.70 level before holding quietly just below the level through to the close.
- AUD: Rising from the early lows around the 0.7040 area to push through into the Tokyo session ranging around the 0.7065 area through to the grey hours before London pushed gently above the 0.7075 area for the high of the day, then USD started to rise and the AUD was forced through to the 0.7010 area bouncing initially back above the 0.7040 before again dropping back to fall towards the 0.7000 level for the low of the day and holding just above the level before rising through to the close holding around the 0.7030.
- EUR: A quiet range from the opening through into the grey hours ranging around the 1.1750 level and unable to challenge either the 1.1760 level and barely scraping through the 1.1745 level, the move into the London session saw the Euro drop quickly through to the 1.1730 level then pause before continuing to drop back at a sedate pace, pausing around the 1.1700 level before a choppy hour saw the Euro continuing to fall but not without impacting either profit taking or fresh longs coming in, the market dipped through to the 1.1650 level before starting some recovery of sorts to hold the 1.1675 area into the close.
Yesterday’s Premiership Results
JPY Retail Sales YoY (SEP) A -8.7% | C -7.7% | P -1.9%
NZD ANZ Business Confidence (OCT) A -15.7 | P -28.5
AUD NAB Quarterly Business Confidence A -10 | P -15
JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision A -0.10% | C -0.10% | P -0.10%
JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
JPY BoJ Outlook Report YoY
EUR Spanish CPI YoY A -0.9% | P -0.4%
EUR Spanish HICPI YoY (OCT) A -1.0% | C -0.6% | P -0.6%
EUR German Unemployment A -35k | C -5k | P -8k | R -10k
EUR German Unemployment Rate (OCT) A 6.2% | C 6.3% | P 6.3%
USD GDP QoQ (Q3) A 33.1% | C 31.0% | P -31.4%
USD GDP Price Index QoQ (Q3) A 3.7% | C 2.8% | P -2.1%
USD Initial Jobless Claims A 751k | C 775k | P 787k | R 791k
EUR Deposit Facility Rate (OCT) A -0.50% | C -0.50% | P -0.50%
EUR ECB Marginal lending Facility A 0.25% | P 0.25%
EUR Monetary Policy Statement
EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision A 0.00% | P 0.00%
EUR German CPI MoM (OCT) A 0.1% | C -0.1% | P -0.2%
CAD Building Permits MoM (SEP) A 17.0 | P 1.7% | R 1.4%
EUR ECB Press Conference
USD Pending Home Sales MoM (SEP) A -2.2% | C 3.4% | P 8.8%
Best Regards
Andy
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