Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 103.505 | EURUSD 1.21672 | AUDUSD 0.77635 | NZDUSD 0.71855 | USDCAD 1.26392 | USDCHF 0.88521 | GBPUSD 1.37332 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.21774 | 1.21616
USDJPY 103.612 | 103.468
GBPUSD 1.37391 | 1.37042
USDCHF 0.88557 | 0.88464
AUDUSD 0.77694 | 0.77414
NZDUSD 0.72251 | 0.7191
USDCAD 1.26730 | 1.26264
EURCHF 1.07750 | 1.0769
EURGBP 0.88820 | 0.88642
EURJPY 126.105 | 125.924
For Today
- GBP: Opening around the 1.3735 area and holding the area through into the Tokyo before making the highs and dipping away through the early part of the session to test repeatedly through the 1.3710 level and slowly drifting through towards the 1.3705 area for the grey hours, topside offers through the 1.3750 area are more sentimental than anything else however, any further move higher testing the 1.3800 likely to see resistance to the move through to the 1.3820 area with an old trendline in the area, weak stops opening up the market for further gains with sentimental resistance around the 50’s and 00’s area to the 1.4100 area before stronger offers really start to dominate, Downside bids light through the 1.3700 level and into the 1.3650 with only minor congestion through the level, the move to the 1.3600 area with stronger congestion from there through to the 1.3550 areas.
- JPY: A very quiet session for the USDJPY opening around the 103.50 area and testing through to the 103.60 area into the Tokyo session before ranging through to the grey hours, , Light offers through the 104.00 area and increasing a little through to the 104.20 area, weak stops on the move level and light congestion running through to the 104.50 area and increasing offers then through to the 104.80-105.00 level and stronger offers. Downside bids through to the 103.00 area, a push through the level will likely see bids continuing until a break of the 102.80 area and then a similar pattern through on the 102 handle with 102.50 then providing support.
- AUD: Testing through into the Tokyo session in a tight range around the 0.7765 area and unable to push through the 0.7770 area, the move into the Tokyo session testing steadily through to the 0.7740 area to range quietly through to the grey hours around the 0.7745, light bids through to the 0.7660 area where support stiffens and the bids continue with only a little weakness to the 0.7620 area with strong stops on any dip through the 0.7580 area before stronger bids again appear in the 0.7550 area. Topside offers through the 0.7750 level and then thickening as the market tests towards the 0.7780 area with weak stops on a move through the 0.7820 areas, stops may cause some problems however, congestion is likely through the 0.7850 area and increase again through the 0.7900 areas.
- EUR: Moving through into the Tokyo session pushing through the 1.2170 area and then range around the area through to the grey hours in very quiet trading, Topside offers through the 1.2180 area through to the 1.2220 area with weak stops on a move through the level into the 1.2250 area before stronger offers start to increase through into the 1.2300 level increasing into the 1.2320-30 areas before strong stops appear for a move higher. Downside bids light through to the 1.2100 level with weak stops very light through the 1.2080 with stronger bids appearing on any dip through the 1.2050 area into the 1.2000 level, stronger stops likely through the 1.1980 area and opening a deeper move.
Overnight News
NZD:
Kiwibank now sees RBNZ holding OCR at 0.25% well into 2022 – BBG
Kiwibank no longer expects RBNZ to take cash rate negative – BBG
AUD:
Miners sell elsewhere as China shuts door on Aussie Copper – AFR
Auction fever hits early as sellers and buyers catch up – AFR
USD:
Yellen leaves door open to tax increase on wealthy Americans – BBG
GBP:
PM Johnson signals UK Lockdown could last into the summer – BBG
HKD:
Hong Kong to lock down district in Kowloon – SCMP
CNY:
Yuan FX Rate currently at reasonable equilibrium level – BBG
China safe urges Co’s to boost risk neutral thinking on FX – BBG
Safe: Dec FX buying surplus due to seasonal factors, exports – BBG
China to continue boosting capital account opening – BBG
Safe to step up monitoring of cross-border flows in bond market – BBG
Yuan rise impact on China’s international BOP within normal range – BBG
Safe: International factors may boost fluctuations in China FX market – BBG
China to prevent abnormal cross border flows in 2021 – BBG
China FX regulator safe spokeswoman Wang Chunying Briefs – BBG
China to deepen reform, opening up in FX sector in 2121 – BBG
Today’s Data
NZD Business NZ PMI (DEC) A 48.7 | P 55.3
NZD CPI YoY (Q4) A 1.4% | C 1.0% | P 1.4%
NZD CPI QoQ (Q4) A 0.5% | C 0.1% | P 0.7%
JPY National Core CPI YoY (DEC) A -1.0% | C -1.1% | P -0.9%
AUD Retail Sales MoM A -4.2% | P 7.1%
JPY Services PMI (JAN) A 45.7 | P 47.7 | R 47.2
0700 GBP Core Retail Sales YoY (DEC) A | C 7.0% | P 5.6%
0700 GBP Core Retail Sales MoM (DEC) A | C 0.8% | P -2.6%
0700 GBP Retail Sales YoY (DEC) A | C 4.0% | P 2.4%
0700 GBP Retail Sales MoM (DEC) A | C 1.2% | P -3.8%
0830 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (JAN) A | C 57.5 | P 58.3
0830 EUR German Services PMI (JAN) A | C 45.3 | P 47
0900 EUR Manufacturing PMI (JAN) A | C 54.5 | P 55.2
0900 EUR Markit Composite PMI (JAN) A | C 47.6 | P 49.1
0900 EUR Services PMI (JAN) A | C 44.5 | P 46.4
0930 GBP Composite PMI (JAN) A | C 50.7 | P 50.7
0930 GBP Manufacturing PMI (JAN) A | C 57.3 | P 57.3
0930 GBP Services PMI (JAN) A | C 49.9 | P 49.9
1330 CAD Core Retail Sales MoM (NOV) A | C 0.3% | P 1.0%
1330 CAD Retail Sales MoM (NOV) A | C 0.1% | P 0.4%
1445 USD Manufacturing PMI (JAN) A | C 56.5 | P 57.1
1445 USD Markit Composite PMI (JAN) A | P 56.3
1445 USD Services PMI (JAN) A | C 53.6 | P 54.8
1500 USD Existing Home Sales MoM (DEC) A | C -2.0% | P -2.5%
1500 USD Existing Home Sales (DEC) A | C 6.55m | P 6.69m
1600 USD Crude Oil Inventories A | C -1.167m | P -3.247m
1800 USD US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count A | P 360
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: The market moved up in waves through into the London session opening around the 1.3655 area and pushing into the Tokyo session testing to the 1.3675 area initially with a slight dip before running again through to the 1.3685 area and hold for a short time around the level, the move into the grey hours saw the final move to make the highs with weak stops triggered on a quick move through the figure level to test through to the 1.3745 level before slowly slipping back to range around the 1.3720 area through into the NYK session, light buying was unable to break through to the 1.3750 area and after a short battle slipped through to the London close testing through to the 1.3705 area, London out of the way saw the GBP rising again for the market to close just below the highs.
- JPY: Ranging around the 103.55 area rising through into the Tokyo session pushing through the 103.65 areas dropped back just as quickly and then followed through on the first test into the 103.30’s rallying into the grey hours but dropping from the days opening levels again to again test to the lows for the last time and ranging from the 103.50-65 area for the rest of the session to a quiet close.
- AUD: Opening just below the 0.7750 area before rising for the Tokyo opening into the 0.7765 area before drifting through to the rally on the Employment release with part time doing better than full this month, the market tested through the 0.7770 area only to range around the level through to the grey hours before dropping again through to hold the 0.7750 area the London full session saw the market slowly rising and hitting the 0.7780 area before running into stronger offers and then dropping back into the lows again before returning to the 0.7760 area for the close.
- EUR: Steady rise through the session opening quietly then moving through into the Tokyo session testing the 1.2130 area only to hold around the level through into the London session with light selling entering the session, the market bounced off the 1.2120 level to move through to the 1.2140 area for NYK and like the previous move slow and then popping as the NYK session opened to push through to the 1.2170 area and the highs dipping a couple of times back to the 1.2140 area before settling on the 1.2170 area for the close.
Premiership Results
JPY Adjusted Trade Balance A 0.48t | P 0.57t | R 0.55t
JPY Exports YoY (DEC) A 2.0% | C 2.4% | P -4.2%
JPY Trade Balance (DEC) A 751.0b | C 942.8b | P 366.1b
AUD Employment Change (DEC) A 50.0k | C 50.0k | P 90.0k
AUD Full Employment Change (DEC) A 35.7k | P 84.2k
AUD Unemployment rate (DEC) A 6.6% | C 6.7% | P 6.8%
JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
JPY BoJ Outlook Report YoY
JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision A -0.10% | C -0.10% | P -0.10%
GBP BoE Credit Conditions Survey
GBP CBI Industrial Trends Orders (JAN) A -38| C -35 | P -25
EUR Deposit Facility Rate (JAN) A -0.50% | C -0.50% | P -0.50%
EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision (JAN) A 0.00% | C 0.00% | P 0.00%
USD Building Permits (DEC) A 1.709m | C 1.604m | P 1.635m
USD Building Permits MoM (DEC) A 4.5% | P 5.9%
USD Housing Starts MoM (DEC) A 5.8% | P 1.2% | R 3.1%
USD Housing Starts (DEC) A 1.669m | C 1.560m | P 1.547m | R 1.578m
USD Initial Jobless Claims A 900k | C 910k | P 965k
USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (JAN) A 26.5 | C 12.0 | P 9.1
USD Philly Fed employment (JAN) A 22.5 | P 5.6
CAD New Housing Price Index MoM (DEC) A 0.3% | P 0.6%
ECB Press Conference
Best Regards
Andy
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