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Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

For Today

• GBP: Opening just short of the 1.3900 level and dipping a little into the Tokyo session the market held around the 1.3890 area through into the Tokyo Fix before dipping through to the 1.3870 level and after a few hours of struggled moved back to the opening level to top just above the 1.3905 area, the market drifted from the highs and returned to the 1.3890-85 level for the move into the grey hours, downside bids into the 1.3850 area with likely weak stops on a move through before stronger bids likely into the 1.3800 level and increasing congestion possible to the 1.3750 area before weakness reappears to the downside, topside offer light through the 1.4000 with limited sentimental offers before weak stops appear and the market likely to be weak through to close to 1.4100 where the market sees stronger offers.
• JPY: A slow opening around the 108.00 are and dipping through to the 107.85 into the Tokyo session before holding tightly around the level before rising through the 108.00 level to push slowly to the 108.10 area for the move into the grey hours, Topside offers through the 108.00 level and then increasing into the 108.50 area with congestion likely to increase on any move through the 108.80 and then through to the 109.20 level even through that level market is likely to remain strongly offered to the 110.00 area before strong stops start to appear, Downside bids light through the 107.50 area and limited into the 107.20-106.80 with weak stops likely on a break through the level and opening the downside to a quick move through to the 106.00 area before stronger bids start to appear.
• AUD: Early USD buying saw the AUD slipping through to the 0.7690 area for the move through the Tokyo fix before starting a slow climb through to the 0.7715 for a quiet range through to the grey hours, Downside bids into the 0.7700 area and likely to be strong however, weak stops through the 0.7680 area with the market likely only to open a short distance before stronger bids again appear and the market struggles for any further downside movement, Topside offers light through the 78 cents level with weak stops likely above the level and the 79 cents level then likely to open quickly and very little to curb the push.
• EUR: Opening around the 1.1970 area and after a meagre push through towards the 1.1980 area before dipping through into the Tokyo session and falling through gradually to bottom out just above the 1.1950 level and ranging around the 1.1955 area through to the grey hours in quiet trading. Downside bids through to the 1.1940 area with light bids into the 1.1920-1.1880 level with weak stops likely through to the 1.1850 before congestion likely through the level and increasing on any push to the 1.1800 level however, downside does start to look vulnerable on any move through the 1.1750 area

Overnight News

USD:
Seafood processors, tourism get more money in stimulus package, in bid to reach Alaska – DJ
US debt set to double over the next 30 years, Congressional budget office says – CBS (inflation?)
EUR/AUD/GBP:
Italy blocks AstraZeneca vaccine export to Australia – AFR
NZD:
Powerful Quake hits off NZ, prompting evacuations in coastal areas – APW
CNY:
China reports African Swine fever outbreak in Yunnan – BBG
NPC: China sets 2021 GDP Growth target at above 6%
NPC: China sets 2021 CPI at around 3.0% vs. actual 2.5% in 2020
NPC: China Plans 2021 budget deficit at 3.2% of GDP vs. 3.6% yr ago
NPC: China plans 3.65t Yuan on special local govt. bond sales in 2021
NPC: China aims to add more than 11m urban jobs in 2021
NPC: China targets surveyed jobless rate at t.t% in 2021
NPC: China Large banks loans to small Co’s to rise over 30%
NPC: China to set urbanization rate to 65% by 2025
NPC: China to enhance anti-monopoly measures in 2021 against fintech
NPC: China to support innovation, development of platform companies
NPC: China to proceed with vaccine research, free inoculation in 2021
NPC: China to strengthen fintech supervision, financial holding companies
NPC: China to keep liquidity reasonably ample
NPC: China won’t make sharp turn in macro-policies in 2021
NPC: China keeps wording on monetary, fiscal policy unchanged
NPC: China money supply growth to basically match nominal GDP growth
NPC: China total social finance growth to basically match nominal GDP
China’s defence budget climbs 6.8% as economy recovers – BBG
CNY/HKD/TWD:
NPC: China to supress foreign forces interfering in HK affairs
NPC: China to ensure implementation of national security law in Hong Kong
NPC: China to improve HK mechanisms enforcing basic law
NPC: China remains highly vigilant against Taiwan independence
NPC: China to promote stable growth of foreign trade
NPC: China to keep yuan basically stable at reasonable level
NPC: China to keep macro leverage ratio basically stable
JPY:
Foreigner selling of Japan stocks reaches 5-month high – BBG
USD/AUD/JPY/INR:
Biden to join first ever quad leaders meeting says Morrison – BBG

Harry Hindsight

• GBP: Initially dipping from the opening to test the 1.3935 level into the Tokyo session, before slowly moving through to the grey hours clawing back to the 1.3950 area, the market ranged into the London session Pushing as high as the 1.3970 area before dropping back steadily from the opening levels to test through to the 1.3920, the move through to the Tokyo session started to see more EURGBP selling joined by limited Cable buying and the Cable made its way through steadily into the NYK session to test above the 1.4015 before quickly reversing the gains testing through into the London close pushing the 1.3900 level to dip to 1.3880 area and a slow recovery to just below the 1.3900 level.
• JPY: A long steady climb through the day with USD buyers moving the market off the 107.00 area and holding through Tokyo into the grey hours around the 107.00-107.10 before really starting its drive through into the 107.35 for the London opening, a slow rise through London saw the market only testing the 107.50 areas before driving through NYK pushing to the 108.00 area for the close.
• AUD: Ranging quietly through the Asian session drifting from the opening through to the 0.7750 area and then recovering through into the Tokyo midsession before pushing on to se the high around the 0.7815 area for the move into the grey hours, drifting in the London session testing the 0.7770 level, the market continued to range through the day and the release o the stronger factory orders seemed to help the USD higher across the board and the AUD quickly dipped through to the 0.7715 level before ranging tightly around the 0.7720 area.
• EUR: A very quiet session through the Asian session with the market ranging around the 1.2050 level having opened around the 1.2065 area, the move through the grey hours saw the market pushing through the early 1.2045 lows to test into the London session holding the 1.2025 area to range in the 1.2025-50 through to the late US numbers where USD buying and the market moving through the London opening pushing quickly through 1.2000 to pause around the 1.1980 area then dropping through to the 1.1960 area before closing quietly.

Premiership Results
USD FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks
AUD Retail Sales MoM (JAN) A 0.5% | C 0.6% | P 0.6%
AUD Trade Balance (JAN) A 10.142b | C 6.500b | P 6.785b
AUD RBA Kearns Speaks
EUR HIS Markit Construction PMI (FEB) A 41.0 | P 46.6
EUR ECB Economic Bulletin
GBP Construction PMI (FEB) A 53.3 | C 51.0 | P 49.2
EUR Retail Sales MoM (JAN) A -5.9% | C -1.1% | P 2.0% | R 1.8%
EUR Unemployment Rate (JAN) A 8.1% | C 8.3% | P 8.3% | R 8.1%
USD OPEC Meeting
USD Initial Jobless Claims A 745k | C 750k | P 730k
USD Nonfarm Productivity QoQ (Q4) A -4.2% | C -4.7% | P -4.8%
USD Unit Labour Costs QoQ (Q4) A 6.0% | C 6.6% | P 6.8% | R -9.7%
CAD Labour Productivity QoQ (Q4) A -2.0% | P -10.3% | R -10.6%
USD Factory Orders MoM (JAN) A 2.6% | C 2.1% | P 1.1% | R 1.6%
USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks

Best Regards
Andy

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