Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 108.389 | EURUSD 1.19128 | AUDUSD 0.76834 | NZDUSD 0.71644 | USDCAD 1.26552 | USDCHF 0.93086 | GBPUSD 1.38348 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.19318 | 1.18988
USDJPY 108.490 | 108.312
GBPUSD 1.38644 | 1.38094
USDCHF 0.93190 | 0.92958
AUDUSD 0.77223 | 0.76866
NZDUSD 0.71905 | 0.71528
USDCAD 1.26638 | 1.26243
EURCHF 1.10967 | 1.10811
EURGBP 0.86240 | 0.86049
EURJPY 129.389 | 128.99
For Today
- GBP: Opening unchanged and quickly rising through to just short of the 1.3850 area before holding through a liquidity shortage and then more steadily pushing through into the 1.3865 level highs for the Tokyo opening, a steady range through to midsession saw the market holding around the 1.3850 level before steadily dipping back to make the lows around the 1.3810 level and slowly moving to the grey hours trying to make it through the 1.3830 area. Topside offers weak back through the 1.3900 level and light stops limited at best before running into light offers around the 1.3950 area and then increasing resistance through to the 1.4000 before slightly stronger stops appear and the market opens to the 1.4050-1.4100 with patchy resistance until closer to the topside of that range and stronger offers thereafter, downside bids into the 1.3800 level with weak stops likely on a dip through the 1.3780-40 levels with congestion likely to soak up much of the selling through to the 1.3700 level with possibly strong congestion then around the 1.3700 level increasing into the 1.3650 level before being able to make a move to the 1.3600 area and strong bids again.
- JPY: A very quiet session with the market opening unchanged and patchy to rise towards the 108.50 level for the first time, the move into the Tokyo session saw some light selling through to the low of the session just above the 108.30 area however, with the fix over the market saw a recovery and continued to press towards the 108.50 level only to fail once again a drift a little for the move into the grey hours,
- AUD: Opening just short of the 0.7700 area the market edged through to quickly test towards the 0.7725 area into the Tokyo session before drifting back into the figure level for a quiet range into midsession in Asia, the market eventually drifted through to fill the gap on the charts and after flirting with the 0.7685 area as the spat between the EU and AUD seemed to be set aside by the latest comments of Morrison, the concern remains about the actions of the EU rather than Italy who it was said banned the vaccines from being exported, the market therefore moved through into the grey hours holding above the 77 cents level, downside bids into the 0.7680 area with increasing bids into the 0.7660 -0.7640 area before some weakness is seen through to the 0.7620-0.7580 and likely stronger stops appearing through the level, topside offers likely light through to the 0.7780 level with strong offers likely building through to the 0.7820 area, weak stops beyond are likely to be soaked up by continuing congestion into the 0.7850 level and increasing on any push through to the 79 cents area where stronger weak stops and break out stops may be waiting.
- EUR: EURCHF, USDCHF movement do seem to suggest that the EUR selling maybe a movement in CHF positions from the EUR as discourse runs through the block, Opening a little higher the market pushed to just above the 1.1830 level to range around the 1.1925 area through to the midsession before dipping back to hold through to the grey hours to the 1.1900-10 area, Downside bids through the 1.1900 level into the 1.1880 before weak stops appear and opens the to the 1.1850 stronger congestive area continuing through to the 1.1800 level and congestion onwards, Topside offers light through to the 1.1950 area before offers start appear in earnest however, there is a limit to the selling and once the buyers appear then pushing through the 1.2000 level is likely to see a short squeeze moving through the market into the congested 1.2100 onward area.
Overnight News
USD:
US Cases slow but Fauci calls level very high – BBG
Powell’s dashboard shows how far US economy has to go on jobs – BBG
Senate Passes $1.9t relief bill after marathon votes – BBG
CNY/USD:
Top Chinese diplomat warns Biden against meddling in country’s affairs – AXS
SAR/YER:
Key Saudi Oil Terminal targeted in escalation of attacks – BBG
AUD/INR:
Australia eyes closer economic ties with India after row with China – ECT
OPEC:
OPEC+ Surprise sees oil soar past gulfs budget levels – BBG SAR/YER not so surprising
EUR:
Markets look to ECB for reassurance on cheap money – AFP
Today’s Data
CNY Trade Balance USD (FEB) A 103.25b | C 60.00b | P 78.17b
CNY Exports YoY (FEB) A 60.6% | C 38.9% | P 18.1%
CNY Imports YoY (FEB) A 22.2% | C 15.0% | P 6.5%
JPY Current Account n.s.a. (JAN) A 0.647t | C 1.230t | P 1.166t
0645 CHF Unemployment Rate n.s.a. (FEB) A | P 3.7%
0645 CHF Unemployment Rate s.a. (FEB) A | C 3.6% | P 3.5%
0700 EUR German Industrial Production MoM (JAN) A | C 0.2% | P 0.0%
2330 JPY Household Spending YoY A | P -0.6%
2330 JPY Household Spending MoM A | P 0.9%
2350 JPY GDP QoQ (Q4) A | C 3.0% | P 3.0%
2350 JPY GDP YoY (Q4) A | C 12.8% | P 12.7%
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Opening towards the highs and testing lightly above the 1.3900 level and then holding in the area through to the Tokyo fix before dipping a little to the 1.3875 area and slowly recovering to make the highs just above the 1.3905 area, the move through to the grey hours saw the market drifting through to the lows again, a slow drift ensued pushing through into the London session before finding bids into and through the 1.3800 level and while not quiet the low with a spike through to the 1.3780 area for the low in NYK the market based around the figure level for the most part and the end of London saw the market slowly recovering through to the 1.3830 area.
- JPY: Trading a little higher from the opening around the 107.90 area to push lightly above the 108.00 level before drifting a little through into the Tokyo session holding around the 107.85 into midsession, a slow push higher through the grey hours continuing through into the London session peaking above the 108.50 area before dipping back to range for a few hours around the 108.35 level only to quickly peak above the 108.65 area and quickly dropping back through to the 108.10 areas before slowly rising to the close in a tight channelled move.
- AUD: Opening on its highs the AUD dipped from the 0.7730 level to fall through into the Tokyo fix to test the 0.7690 area before rising towards the opening levels again for the move into the grey hours, a slow drift through into midsession making it too the 0.7655 areas pausing and testing lower again holding the 0.7650 level this time through to the NFP number and a quick dip to the 0.7620 level and bouncing to the 0.7700 level before settling back to the 0.7680 area to range for a couple of years dipping and slowly recovering from the 0.7650 area for the move to the close.
- EUR: A quiet day overall opening around the 1.1970 area and after testing towards the 1.1980 level to fall back to the 1.1965 area for the move through to the Tokyo session and a steady drift through to the London opening testing the 1.1950 area, upon the opening a stronger selling movement took the first hours trading through to the 1.1915 level before again ranging in a tight range around the 1.1935 area through to the NYK opening and the NFP selling took the Euro through the 1.1900 level and bouncing back to the 1.1945 level and then settling down to range quietly through to the close.
Premiership Results
EUR German Factory Orders MoM (JAN) A 1.4% | C 0.7% | P -1.9% | R -2.2%
GBP Halifax House Price Index MoM (FEB) A -0.1% | C 0.3% | P -0.3% | R -0.4%
GBP Halifax House Price Index YoY A 5.2% | P 5.4%
USD Average Hourly earnings YoY (FEB) A 5.3% | C 5.3 | P 5.4%
USD Average Hourly Earnings MoM (FEB) A 0.2% | C 0.2% | P 0.2% | R 0.1%
USD Exports A 191.90b | P 184.20b | R 190.00b
USD Imports A 260.20b | P 252.30b | R 256.60b
USD Nonfarm Payrolls (FEB) A 379k | C 182k | P 49k | R 166k
USD Participation Rate (FEB) A 61.4% | P 61.4%
USD Private Nonfarm Payrolls (FEB) A 465k | C 210k | P 6k | R 90k
USD Trade Balance (JAN) A -6820b | C -67.50b | P -66.60b | R -67.00b
USD Unemployment Rate (FEB) A 6.2% | C 6.3% | P 6.3%
CAD Trade Balance (JAN) A 1.41b | C -1.40b | P 1.67b | R -1.98b
GBP MPC Member Haskel Speaks
CAD Ivey PMI (FEB) A 60.0 | P 48.4
USD US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count A 403 | P 397 | R 402
USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
Best Regards
Andy
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