Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 108.508 | EURUSD 1.1985 | AUDUSD 0.7788 | NZDUSD 0.72146 | USDCAD 1.25356 | USDCHF 0.92468 | GBPUSD 1.3993 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.19886 | 1.19599
USDJPY 108.786 | 108.481
GBPUSD 1.40048 | 1.3973
USDCHF 0.92667 | 0.92438
AUDUSD 0.78007 | 0.7771
NZDUSD 0.72332 | 0.72112
USDCAD 1.25501 | 1.25243
EURCHF 1.10883 | 1.10734
EURGBP 0.85711 | 0.8558
EURJPY 130.278 | 130.009
For Today
- GBP: Opening Very quietly around the 1.3990 area testing to the 1.3985 area repeatedly before moving deeper into the Tokyo session and the one strong push through the 1.4000 level to top only at the 1.4005 level and a slow drift through to the 1.3975 level for a quiet move through into the grey hours, topside offers around the 1.4000 level and slightly stronger stops appear for the market to open to a move through to the 1.4050-1.4100 with patchy resistance until closer to the topside of that range and stronger offers thereafter, downside bids into the 1.3800 level with weak stops likely on a dip through the 1.3780-40 levels with congestion likely to soak up much of the selling through to the 1.3700 level with possibly strong congestion then around the 1.3700 level increasing into the 1.3650 level before being able to make a move to the 1.3600 area and strong bids again.
- JPY: A slow steady rise through the session with large manufacturing disappointing for the first quarter, the move through into the start of midsession saw the market topping out just below the 108.78 areas before drifting to range around the 108.70 level for the move into the grey hours, Topside congestion is likely to soak up some of the weak stops above through to the 109.50 area where strong congestion is likely to appear and increasing offers into the 110.00 and like the previous spikes at the beginning of last year any move is likely to find resistance above and continuing through the 110.00 with break out stops likely to be a little more nervous, downside bids light through to the 108.00 level with weak stops on any retrace through the 107.80 level and opening a dip to the 106.00 area possible over the coming week.
- AUD: A quiet session to start with the market holding around the 0.7785-90 level from the open through to the first couple of hours into the Tokyo session, fix over saw the Oz press lightly above the 0.7800 area before dropping quickly off, testing back to the 0.7770 area the market recovered from those lows to the 0.7785 area for the move into the grey hours, Topside offers through the 0.7700-20 area with limited potential for stops however, the offers don’t really look that strong until the 0.7800-20 areas with weak stops likely beyond that area to open up the potential for another higher run, downside bids into the 76 cents level with strong bids likely through to the 0.7580 area, weak stops are likely to be few and far between with stronger bids likely into the 0.7550 level and likely stronger congestion through to the 0.7500 area.
- EUR: Light trading through deep into Tokyo before dropping off the highs around the 1.1988 area to test to the 1.1960 level and hold quietly through to the grey hours, Congestion through the 1.1820-1.1780 area with weak stops possibly being cleared up quickly through to the 1.1750 and again stronger congestion and likely to continue through the 1.1700 level, topside offers light back through the 1.1920 area and weak stops possibly setting up a small short squeeze through to the 1.1980 area before stronger offers start to appear into the 1.2000 level. Topside offers light through to the 1.1950 area with offers then starting to increase through to the 1.2000 level with weak stops above the 1.2020 level before the offers return increasing into the 1.2040-60 level.
Overnight News
CNY:
China bonds set for breakout year as attractive yields defy US sell-off – SMP
USD:
Why Joe Biden’s Quad summit is unlikely to find consensus on containing China
Today’s big number reveals where all the money went last year – DJ
USD/CNY:
US Imposes new 5g license limits on some Huawei suppliers – BBG
JPY:
Japan needs hundreds of billions more in stimulus, say Lawmaker – BBG
JPY/USD:
Japan says PM Suga plans to meet Biden in US next month –
CNY/USD:
American rescue plan: China worried about economic impact of Joe Biden’s USD1.9t bailout – SMP
IRR/CNY:
India likely to block carriers from using Huawei equipment – BBG
EUR:
ECB Ramps up bond buying speed to contain rising bond yields – BBG
Many EU countries ban AstraZenica vaccine – Anadolu Agency
GBP/EUR:
AstraZeneca: EU says no indication vaccine causes clots – BBC
Today’s Data
NZD Business NZ PMI (FEB) A 53.4 | P 57.5
JPY BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions A 1.6 | P 21.6
AUD HIA New Home Sales MoM A | P -69.4%
0700 GBP GDP QoQ A | P 1.0%
0700 GBP GDP MoM A | P -2.6%
0700 GBP GDP YoY A | P -7.8%
0700 GBP Industrial Production MoM (JAN) A | C -0.6% | P 0.2%
0700 GBP Manufacturing Production MoM (JAN) A | C -0.8% | P 0.3%
0700 GBP Monthly GDP 3m/3m Change A | P 1.0%
0700 GBP Trade Balance (JAN) A | C -12.50b | P -14.32b
0700 GBP Trade Balance non-EU (JAN) A | C -4.95b | P -5.20b
0700 EUR German CPI MoM (FEB) A | C 0.7% | P 0.8%
0800 EUR Spanish CPI YoY (FEB) A | C 0.6% | P 0.6%
0800 EUR Spanish HICP YoY (FEB) A | C -0.1% | P 0.4%
1000 EUR Industrial Production MoM (JAN) A | C 0.2% | P -1.6%
1330 USD Core PPI MoM (FEB) A | C 0.2% | P 1.2%
1330 USD PPI MoM (FEB) A | C 0.5% | P 1.3%
1330 CAD Employment Change (FEB) A | C 75.0k | P -212.8k
1330 CAD Unemployment Rate (FEB) A | C 9.2% | P 9.4%
1330 CAD Wholesale Sales MoM (JAN) A | C 5.0% | P -1.3%
1400 GBP NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker A | P -2.5%
1500 USD Michigan Consumer Expectations (MAR) (P) A | C 74.0 | P 70.7
1500 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment (MAR) (P) A | C 78.5 | P 76.8
1800 USD US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count A | P 402
Tentative USD US Fed Budget A | P -430.0b
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Opening a little lower the market moved quietly into the Tokyo session filling the gap on the charts before drifting off from the 1.3935 area to dip to the Tokyo fix for the low of the day just through the 1.3920 level before rising back to mark time around the opening level, the move into the grey hours saw the market rising steadily in a channel through to the final hours testing to the 1.3995 level before closing close to the area.
- JPY: Opening just off the lows the market pushed into the Tokyo session holding the 108.45 area before dropping back to make the lows just before the Tokyo fix with a quick bounce from the 108.35 area to test to the 108.50 level, A steady rise through into the midsession in the Far East before quickly rising on strong round of buying to push the market through to the 108.80 level before failing the level and the Tokyo lunch hour leaving the grey hour vulnerable to the fall back, a follow through on the opening in London saw the market again testing through the 108.40 level and London then steadily buying off the area, a dip after the early run higher in NYK pushing through to the 108.70 area and then sending the market lower through to late in the session before finishing the day a little higher than it started.
- AUD: After Lowe’s commentary the AUD immediately filled the gap on the chart and ran to above the 0.7740 area before drifting through into the Tokyo session, rising to the 0.7750 level the market held through to the grey hours before breaking through the level and trading to the 0.7780 area only to meet a strong resistance level technically and struggling through into the London session ranging around the 0.7775 area and dipping through to the 0.7740 level into NYK, the dip was short lived and the market started a slow steady rise through to the 0.7785 areas for the highs before closing.
- EUR: A quiet Asian session with the market trading around the opening 1.1925 area and then the move into the Grey hours saw the market testing to the 1.1935 level, the move through the pre London session saw the market move initially to the 1.1945 level before London opening saw the market pop to the 1.1965 area for a long range around the level to the NYK session, steadily dipping back to the opening levels the market rallied through to the early London range before moving in steps to the 1.1990 area before dipping a little for the close.
Premiership Results
AUD RBA Gov. Lowe Speaks
GBP RICS House Price Balance (FEB) A 52% | C 45% | P 50%
EUR Deposit Facility Rate (MAR) A -0.50% | C -0.50% | P -0.50%
EUR ECB Marginal Lending Facility A 0.25% | P 0.25%7
EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision (MAR) A 0.00% | C 0.00% | P 0.00%
USD Initial Jobless Claims A 712k | C 725k | P 745k | R 754k
EUR ECB Press Conference
USD JOLTs Job openings (JAN) A 6.917m | C 6.60m | P 6.646m | R 6.752m
CAD BoC Gov Council Member Schembri Speaks
Best Regards
Andy
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