Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 108.892 | EURUSD 1.19154 | AUDUSD 0.77601 | NZDUSD 0.71924 | USDCAD 1.24854 | USDCHF 0.92744 | GBPUSD 1.39285 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.19204 | 1.19025
USDJPY 109.131 | 108.831
GBPUSD 1.39356 | 1.38928
USDCHF 0.92829 | 0.92681
AUDUSD 0.77687 | 0.77247
NZDUSD 0.71821 | 0.71516
USDCAD 1.25113 | 1.24868
EURCHF 1.10530 | 1.10454
EURGBP 0.85682 | 0.85492
EURJPY 129.986 | 129.711
For Today
- GBP: Opening around the 1.3930 area saw a slow drift on the move through into the Tokyo session dipping a little through the 1.3900 area testing 1.3895 level before recovering and a slow rise to the 1.3920 level for the move into the grey hours, topside offers around the 1.4000 level and slightly stronger stops appear for the market to open to a move through to the 1.4050-1.4100 with patchy resistance until closer to the topside of that range and stronger offers thereafter, downside bids into the 1.3800 level with weak stops likely on a dip through the 1.3780-40 levels with congestion likely to soak up much of the selling through to the 1.3700 level with possibly strong congestion then around the 1.3700 level increasing into the 1.3650 level before being able to make a move to the 1.3600 area and strong bids again.
- JPY: Moving quietly above the 108.90 area into the Tokyo session rising through to the 109.10 level before dipping back to the opening level before spiking for the BoJ release and then dipping and holding the 108.90 level for the move through to the grey hours, Topside congestion is likely to soak up some of the weak stops above through to the 109.50 area where strong congestion is likely to appear and increasing offers into the 110.00 and like the previous spikes at the beginning of last year any move is likely to find resistance above and continuing through the 110.00 with break out stops likely to be a little more nervous, downside bids light through to the 108.00 level with weak stops on any retrace through the 107.80 level and opening a dip to the 106.00 area possible over the coming week.
- AUD: Opening quietly for the most part with early liquidity issues seeing the high of the day above the 0.7770 area before returning to the 0.7760 area for a tight run through to the Tokyo session, a slow drift to the 0.7750 level then saw the market dipping quickly through to the 0.7725 level for the low and a slow range to the 0.7755 level for the move into the grey hours, Topside offers through to the 0.7840-60 area and then increasing offers onwards through 0.7900, with the offers likely to continue through to the 0.7950 area and likely increasing resistance through to the 0.8000 levels, downside bids into the 76 cents level with strong bids likely through to the 0.7580 area, weak stops are likely to be few and far between with stronger bids likely into the 0.7550 level and likely stronger congestion through to the 0.7500 area.
- EUR: A very quiet range and news with most of yesterdays news being rehashed for the session but having no impact as the market opened quietly in the 1.1920 area dipping into the Tokyo session testing the 1.1900 area before rising slowly over the course of several hours to the 1.1920 area again for the move to the grey hours, light bids through the 1.19 levels before weak stops through the 1.1880 area before stronger congestion through the 1.1820-1.1780 area with weak stops possibly being cleared up quickly through to the 1.1750 and again stronger congestion and likely to continue through the 1.1700 level, topside offers light back through to the 1.1980 area before stronger offers start to appear into the 1.2000 level. Stronger stops likely on a move through the 1.2020 level with some light resistance into the 1.2050 area and stronger offers then appearing through to the 1.2100 level.
Overnight News
CNY:
Record defaults hit China’s weakest firms as liquidity tightens – BBG
GBP/SEK/EUR:
EMA the EU’s drug regulator deems AstraZeneca vaccine safe for use – BBG
USD/MXN/CAD:
US plans to send 4m doses of AstraZeneca vaccine to Mexico and Canada – RTR’s
USD/CNY:
In first talks, duelling accusations set testy tone for US-China diplomacy – NYT
CNY/USD:
Chinese officials in Alaska say US made groundless attack on China’s domestic and foreign policies, provoking disputes – State media
Senior Chinese diplomat Wang Yi says serious difficulties in US-China relations in the Past should not continue – State Media
CAD:
Benefits of the Astra Covid vaccine outweighs any risk – BBG
JPY:
BoJ sets yield range at around 25bps either side of target
BoJ will establish interest scheme to promote lending
BoJ won’t hesitate to take more easing if needed
BoJ will introduce fixed rate buying operations for consecutive days
BoJ introduce new tool to set limit on rates when needed
Today’s Data
JPY National Core CPI YoY (FEB) A -0.4% | C -0.4% | P -0.6%
GBP GfK Consumer Confidence A -16 | C -20 | P -23
AUD Retail Sales MoM (P) A -1.1% | C 0.4% | P 0.5% | R 0.3%
JPY BoJ Press Conference
JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision A -0.10% | C -0.10% | P -0.10%
JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
0700 EUR German PPI MoM (FEB) A | C 0.7% | P 1.4%
1045 EUR ECB’s Panetta Speaks
1230 CAD Core Retail Sales MoM (JAN) A | C -2.6% | P -4.1%
1230 CAD Retail Sales MoM (JAN) A | C -3.0% | P -3.4%
1300 GBP BoE MPC Member Cunliffe Speaks
1700 USD US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count A | P 403
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: A slow rise through into the Tokyo session testing through the 1.3975 from the 1.3960 opening before slowly drifting through to the 1.3950 area for the move through the midsession dipping to the 1.3940 area before returning to the 1.3960 level and into the grey hours to push quickly to the 1.4000 level for a brief test through before dropping back just as quickly to hit the 1.3950 for the move into the London session ranging around the 1.3960 area, the move into the NYK session drifting and breaking through to test the 1.3900, as with the high slightly through the level before bouncing back to push back to the 1.3950 level and a quiet range holding the 1.3925 area.
- JPY: A choppy day with the market dipping quickly from the 108.90 area top test the 108.70 bouncing back to the opening and the move through into the Tokyo session rising through to the 109.10 level holding briefly before quickly dipping back to the 108.60 areas and instantly bouncing back to the 109.00 level once the Oz numbers were out of the way, the move through to the grey hours saw the market holding around the 108.90 area and the move into the grey hours saw the market rising quickly through to the 109.30 area and the high for the day before drifting through to the London opening falling back to the 109.00 so the high and low out of the way the market remained a little choppy but holding around the 109.00 areas to finish a little higher for the day.
- AUD: Rising quietly through into the Tokyo session pushing to the 0.7835 in early Tokyo with employment numbers helping the move before ranging around the 0.7825 area, the move through into the grey hours saw the high for the day testing to the 0.7850 level and London sellers moved in to take the market back to the 78 cents level and ranging around the 0.7810 level through to the NYK session, creeping through to the 0.7765 area before recovering on the move into early NYK before drifting through to the 0.7760 level to range to the close making the low 0.7750 along the way.
- EUR: Heightened tensions between EU and UK saw cross selling of the Euro through early Tokyo and the market falling below the 1.1960 level before pushing steadily back to make the high of the day into the grey hours testing towards the 1.1990, London quickly dipped back through to the opening testing to the 1.1940 and the market then continued to drift through into the NYK session with the market then ranging around the 1.1910 area for a long run to the close.
Premiership Results
NZD GDP QoQ (Q4) A -1.0% | C 0.1% | P 14.0% | R 13.9%
AUD Employment Change (FEB) A 88.7k | C 30.0k | P 29.1k
AUD Full Employment Change (FEB) A 89.1k | P 59.0k
AUD Unemployment Rate (FEB) A 5.8% | C 6.3% | P 6.4%
AUD RBA Assist Gov. Kent Speaks
CHF PPI MoM (FEB) A 0.0% | P 0.3%
EUR ECB Lagarde Speaks
EUR ECB McCaul Speaks
EUR Wages in Eurozone YoY (Q4) A 3.50% | P 2.20%
EUR Trade Balance (JAN) A 6.3b | C 25.3b | P 29.2b | R 29.4b
EUR ECB LTRO A 330.5b | P 50.4b
EUR ECB Lagarde Speaks
GBP BoE MPC Vote Change A 9 | C 9 | P 9
GBP BoE QE Total (MAR) A 875b | C 875b | P 875b
GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision (MAR) A 0.10% | C 0.10% | P 0.10%
GBP BoE MPC Meeting Minutes
USD Initial Jobless Claims A 770k | C 700k | P 712k | R 725k
USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (MAR) A 51.8 | C 23.0 | P 23.1
USD Philly Fed Employment (MAR) A 30.1 | P 25.3
CAD New Housing Price Index MoM (FEB) A 1.9% | P 0.7%
EUR ECB’s De Guindos Speaks
EUR German BuBa Mauderer Speaks
EUR ECB’s Schnabel Speaks
Best Regards
Andy
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