Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 108.882 | EURUSD 1.19047 | AUDUSD 0.77421 | NZDUSD 0.71644 | USDCAD 1.25015 | USDCHF 0.92916 | GBPUSD 1.3863 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.18989 | 1.18697
USDJPY 108.955 | 108.570
GBPUSD 1.38570 | 1.38184
USDCHF 0.93147 | 0.92896
AUDUSD 0.77342 | 0.77010
NZDUSD 0.71624 | 0.71392
USDCAD 1.25332 | 1.24971
EURCHF 1.10603 | 1.1047
EURGBP 0.85968 | 0.85786
EURJPY 129.476 | 128.981
For Today
- GBP: Weaker opening with Cable around the 1.3845 area and ranging through into the Tokyo session holding tightly in a quiet market around that level, a slow drift through to the 1.3820 level saw the low of the day before grinding slowly through the session to hold quietly into the grey hours around the 1.3850 area filling in some of the gap on the charts, downside bids into the 1.3800 level with weak stops likely on a dip through the 1.3780-40 levels with congestion likely to soak up much of the selling through to the 1.3700 level with possibly strong congestion then around the 1.3700 level increasing into the 1.3650 level before being able to make a move to the 1.3600 area and strong bids again. Topside light through the 1.3900 level with minimum stops and the market then seeing offers through the 1.3950 area and increasing into the 1.4000 level with stronger stops through the level and increasing offers from 1.4050-1.4100 level.
- JPY: TRY was the weekend mover and the JPY/TRY cross saw JPY buying from the opening and USDJPY after a brief period managed to rise from the 108.60 opening area to push through to fill the gap and range around the 108.90 level through to deep into the session before the JPY buying again appeared for a slow push to the 108.70 level and rising only slightly for the move into the grey hours, Topside congestion is likely to soak up some of the weak stops above through to the 109.50 area where strong congestion is likely to appear and increasing offers into the 110.00 and like the previous spikes at the beginning of last year any move is likely to find resistance above and continuing through the 110.00 with break out stops likely to be a little more nervous, downside bids light through to the 108.00 level with weak stops on any retrace through the 107.80 level and opening a dip to the 106.00 area possible over the coming week.
- AUD: Opening around the 0.7710 level the move through to the Tokyo session saw a slow climb through to the 0.7730 area before dipping back again for the Tokyo fix and the balance of the session a slow grind fro0m the 0.7705 area to move into the grey hours testing the 0.7730 area again, Topside offers through to the 0.7840-60 area and then increasing offers onwards through 0.7900, with the offers likely to continue through to the 0.7950 area and likely increasing resistance through to the 0.8000 levels, downside bids into the 76 cents level with strong bids likely through to the 0.7580 area, weak stops are likely to be few and far between with stronger bids likely into the 0.7550 level and likely stronger congestion through to the 0.7500 area.
- EUR: The opening saw the market dip towards the 1.1870 level and struggle to push through into the Tokyo session slowly testing above the 1.1890 area before dipping through the Fix before recovering from the 1.1875 level pushing close to the 1.1900 level and holding close to the area through to the grey hours, Topside offers weak through to the 1.1940-60 area with stronger offers then increasing through to the 1.2000 level with weak stops through the level and stronger offers into the 1.2050 level. downside bids light through to the 1.1800 area with weak stops through the 1.1780 level before stronger bids appear through the 1.1750 level and increasing on a test into the 1.1720 level.
Overnight News
TRY:
Two days after a bigger than expected increase in interest rates, Turkey’s Pres. Erdogan removed the countries third Central Bank Governor in less that 2 yrs. – BBG
USD:
IMM Futures show marked closure of USD shorts over the week – IMM
Powell Stresses that tapering is data-dependent, and earlier end to QE is in focus.
Summers sees worst US macroeconomic policy in 40 years – BBG
US House antitrust chairman plans multiple bills to go after Big Tech – RTRs
EUR:
EU Plodding stirs ECB concerns as US surges on stimulus – BBG
Germany poised to tighten curbs into April as virus rages
AUD:
Australia to evacuate thousands as Sydney faces worst floods in 60 years – RTRs
GBP:
UK to unveil global focus in defence modernization plans – AFP
GBP/EUR:ession to reach the 1.38
UK warns EU vaccine export ban would be counterproductive – DefSec
Today’s Data
CNY PBoC Loan Prime Rate A 3.85% | P 3.85%
1400 USD Existing Home Sales (FEB) A | C 6.49m | P 6.69m
1400 USD Existing Home Sales MoM (FEB) A | C -3.0% | P 0.6%
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: A quiet move through into the Tokyo session before dropping from the 1.3930 area through to slowly push through the 1.3900 level before bouncing back above the figure and ranging through into the grey hours in the 1.3910-20 area, early grey hours buying saw the move into London testing the 1.3960 level, London held the 1.3950-60 area for a short period before dipping back to the opening 1.3930 level and then drifting through to the NYK session holding the 1.3900 level, the market quickly dipped through to the 1.3835 area for a quiet run around the level before slowly grinding through to the London close recovering to the 1.3880 area before drifting to the close testing the 1.3860 area.
- JPY: Opening a little higher and then holding around the 108.95 area through into the Tokyo session before slowly pushing through to the 109.10 level before drifting through into the rate decision spiking slightly to increase the highs marginally before again drifting through to the 108.60 for the move into the London session, early London saw the market heading back to the 108.90/95 area before pushing again to the 109.05 area, holding quietly through the London close the market headed into the close unchanged on the day.
- AUD: Choppy opening saw the high for the day just above the 0.7770 level before returning to the 0.7760 level, a slow drift through into the Tokyo session with the market testing through to just below the 0.7730 level before bouncing back and slowly recovering through to the 0.7750 for the move into the London session, London were slow buyers to again test to the highs again before dipping and then holding steady through into the NYK session before dipping through to make the lows testing through the 0.7720 level, a long steady recovery through to the close.
- EUR: A quiet range through into the Tokyo session holding around the 1.1920 area before ranging quietly around the 1.1910 level with a slow recovery for the move into the grey hours, steady buying through into the London opening saw the market testing above the 1.1935 level for the high of the day and London sending the market slowly lower to hold around the 1.1900 area through into the NYK session were selling pushed the market to the lows and a test of the 1.1875 level with a few week stops triggered before a slow recovery to the 1.1910 area saw the market ranging above the figure through to the close.
Premiership Results
JPY National Core CPI YoY (FEB) A -0.4% | C -0.4% | P -0.6%
GBP GfK Consumer Confidence A -16 | C -20 | P -23
AUD Retail Sales MoM (P) A -1.1% | C 0.4% | P 0.5% | R 0.3%
JPY BoJ Press Conference
JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision A -0.10% | C -0.10% | P -0.10%
JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
EUR German PPI MoM (FEB) A 0.7% | C 0.7% | P 1.4%
EUR ECB’s Panetta Speaks
CAD Core Retail Sales MoM (JAN) A -1.2% | C -2.6% | P -4.1%
CAD Retail Sales MoM (JAN) A -1.1% | C -3.0% | P -3.4%
GBP BoE MPC Member Cunliffe Speaks
USD US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count A 411 | P 403 | R 402
Best Regards
Andy
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