Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 108.845 | EURUSD 1.19327 | AUDUSD 0.77453 | NZDUSD 0.7177 | USDCAD 1.25233 | USDCHF 0.92337 | GBPUSD 1.38648 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.19406 | 1.19227
USDJPY 108.875 | 108.689
GBPUSD 1.38643 | 1.38322
USDCHF 0.92449 | 0.92336
AUDUSD 0.77492 | 0.76964
NZDUSD 0.71658 | 0.70834
USDCAD 1.25486 | 1.25176
EURCHF 1.10316 | 1.10186
EURGBP 0.86204 | 0.86057
EURJPY 129.934 | 129.655
For Today
- GBP: A quiet opening before slow selling by Tokyo to take the market from the 1.3865 area to test through to the 1.3835 level and the range for the day, very limited attempt of move off the lows and although it did move above the 1.3850 area it was limited and soon found itself heading into the grey hours testing the lows again, downside bids into the 1.3800 level with weak stops likely on a dip through the 1.3780-40 levels with congestion likely to soak up much 00 area and strong bids again. Topside light through the 1.3900 level with minimum stops and the market then seeing offers through the 1.3950 area and increasing into the 1.4000 level with stronger stops through the level and increasing offers from 1.4050-1.4100 level.
- JPY: A slow dip from the opening around the 108.80 area before climbing a little for the fix and test towards the 108.90 area before dropping once the fix was over with and the market tested the lows around the 108.70 and a limited range from that point, Topside congestion is likely to soak up some of the weak stops above through to the 109.50 area where strong congestion is likely to appear and increasing offers into the 110.00 and like the previous spikes at the beginning of last year any move is likely to find resistance above and continuing through the 110.00 with break out stops likely to be a little more nervous, downside bids light through to the 108.00 level with weak stops on any retrace through the 107.80 level and opening a dip to the 106.00 area possible over the coming week.
- AUD: A slow steady slide as the weather dominates the east coast economies, opening around the 0.7745 level the market dipped through to the 0.7700 area in light trading before heading into the grey hours, Topside offers through to the 0.7840-60 area and then increasing offers onwards through 0.7900, with the offers likely to continue through to the 0.7950 area and likely increasing resistance through to the 0.8000 levels, downside bids into the 76 cents level with strong bids likely through to the 0.7580 area, weak stops are likely to be few and far between with stronger bids likely into the 0.7550 level and likely stronger congestion through to the 0.7500 area.
- EUR: Ranging steadily lower through the session from the 1.1935 area, Tokyo managed to test above the 1.1940 level before sinking through to range around the 1.1920 level to the grey hours. Topside offers weak through to the 1.1940-60 area with stronger offers then increasing through to the 1.2000 level with weak stops through the level and stronger offers into the 1.2050 level. downside bids light through to the 1.1800 area with weak stops through the 1.1780 level before stronger bids appear through the 1.1750 level and increasing on a test into the 1.1720 level.
Overnight News
NZD:
NZ targets speculators in new assault on house prices – BBG
Government officials advised ministers against applying key measures of its housing plan – NZHerald
NZ Feb. Credit card spending falls 1.9% MoM – BBG
USD:
Yellen, Powell to face down deficit, inflation fears at congress – BBG
Yellen says US may see return to full employment next year – BBG
JPY:
Former Japan bank regulator Endo to advise on digital currencies at Cryptocurrency exchange – RTRs
Japan unveils steps to back financing at bigger firms hit by pandemic – RTR’s
EUR:
Germany to enter strict five-day shutdown over Easter says Merkel
AUD:
Australia’s worsening floods crisis impacting Coal, agriculture – BBG
GBP/EUR:
Salmon, beef, whiskey exports from UK to EU plunge after Brexit – BBG
Today’s Data
0700 GBP Average Earnings Index +Bonus (JAN) A | C 4.9% | P 4.7%
0700 GBP Claimant Count Change (FEB) A | P -20.0k
0700 GBP Employment Change 3m/3m MoM (JAN) A | C -167k | P -114k
0700 GBP Unemployment Rate (JAN) A | C 5.2% | P 5.1%
0800 EUR ECB’s Enria Speaks
0840 GBP BoE MPC Member Haldane Speaks
0955 GBP BoE MPC Member Cunliffe Speaks
1100 GBP CBI Industrial Trends Orders (MAR) A | C -20 | P -24
1100 GBP BoE MPC Member Cunliffe Speaks
1150 GBP BoE Gov. Bailey Speaks
1230 USD Current Account (Q4) A | C -189.9b | P -178.5b
1300 USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
1300 USD FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
1400 USD FED Chair Powell Testifies
1400 USD New Home Sales (FEB) A | C 875k | P 923k
1400 USD New Home Sales MoM (FEB) A | C -6.5% | P 4.3%
1410 USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
1725 USD FOMC Member Brainard Speaks
1845 USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
1945 USD FOMC Member Brainard Speaks
2030 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock A | P -1.000m
2145 NZD Trade Balance YoY (FEB) A | P 2,750m
2145 NZD Trade Balance MoM (FEB) A | P -626m
2350 JPY Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Opening lower around the 1.3845 area dipping into the Tokyo session to push through to the lows early in the new session testing the 1.3820 area and then steadily moving higher in steps to recover and fill the gap on the charts to push above the 1.3860 level for the move into the grey hours, a steady range through into the London session before pushing quickly higher testing the 1.3875 areas for the first time and after a steady drift lower the market again tested higher to push lightly above the 1.3875 level to extend the high by a couple of pips, the move into NYK saw comments from Biden on not handing out a trade deal until Brexit is complete between the EU and UK, so hurry up and wait, the news that EU to ban Astra Zeneca vaccines to the UK sees several leaders running around which is likely to see retaliation and likely to have a great impact on both economies, the market moved off the 1.3820 levels again to push through to the 1.3870 level before holding quietly through to the close unchanged from Fridays close.
- JPY: Opening around the 108.65 level and dipping through towards the 108.55 area holding around the 108.60 areas before Tokyo moved in and quickly filled the gap as the market moved to the 108.90 area to push through deeper into the session testing the 108.95 level before dropping back again to the 108.70 area and ranging through to the close around that level with minor moves in either direction.
- AUD: A reasonably quiet day for the Oz with the market opening around the 0.7710 level some 40 pips off the Friday close with the market impacted by the TRY news as Central Bankers come and go in rapid succession, the market moved through into the 0.7735 level for the Tokyo session before steadily making the low around the 0.7705 level before returning to the 0.7725 area range through to the London session, a slow push through into the NYK session testing through to the 0.7755 area before drifting a little for the close and the gap filled on the charts.
- EUR: Opening around the 1.1870 level and forming the base for the session through to the London opening, ranging through to the 1.1900 level and the move to the grey hours and then moving off the lows again to steadily push through to Fridays closing area and then after a pause running again too the 1.1920 level and holding through into the NYK session, a light range through to the 1.1940 level before drifting through to the close.
Premiership Results
CNY PBoC Loan Prime Rate A 3.85% | P 3.85%
USD Existing Home Sales (FEB) A 6.22m | C 6.49m | P 6.69m | R 6.66m
USD Existing Home Sales MoM (FEB) A -6.6% | C -3.0% | P 0.6% | R 0.2%
Best Regards
Andy
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