Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 108.679 | EURUSD 1.17929 | AUDUSD 0.7640 | NZDUSD 0.6998 | USDCAD 1.25748 | USDCHF 0.93906 | GBPUSD 1.37952 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.17955 | 1.17752
USDJPY 109.804 | 109.441
GBPUSD 1.38014 | 1.37663
USDCHF 0.94020 | 0.93928
AUDUSD 0.76448 | 0.76208
NZDUSD 0.69970 | 0.69767
USDCAD 1.26091 | 1.25772
EURCHF 1.10771 | 1.10717
EURGBP 0.85569 | 0.85458
EURJPY 129.420 | 128.998
For Today
- GBP: A light test above the 1.3800 area before holding through into the Tokyo session around the 1.3790 area, light selling through for the fix saw the market continui9ng through to the 1.3765 level lows before ranging around the 1.3780 area for the grey hour, Downside congestion around the 1.3660-40 area with stronger bids on any push towards the 1.3600 level and weak stops likely on a dip through opening to a deeper move, Topside offers light through to the 1.3800 level with congestion through to the 1.3850 area before opening up to light offers and weak stops through the 1.3900 level and then stronger congestion.
- JPY: Opening unchanged and ranging into the Tokyo session around the 109.70 area to push through to the 109.80 level for the high and steady selling through to the 109.45 level to hold around the 109.50 areas for the move into grey hour, Topside congestion is likely to soak up some of the weak stops above the 110.00 and like the previous spikes at the beginning of last year any move is likely to find resistance above and continuing through the 110.20 with break out stops likely to be a little more nervous, downside bids light through to the 108.00 level with weak stops on any retrace through the 107.80 level and opening a dip to the 106.00 area possible over the coming week.
- AUD: Wide opening with light liquidity before holding around the 0.7640 area in line with the close on Friday, the move through the Tokyo opening dipping back to the 0.7620 area before rising again through a steady push to the 0.7645 area before holding quietly around the 0.7635 for the move into the grey hour, Light topside offers through to the 0.7700 area with weak stops on a move above the 0.7720 area Then stronger offers through to the 0.7840-60 area and then increasing offers onwards through 0.7900, with the offers likely to continue through to the 0.7950 area and likely increasing resistance through to the 0.8000 levels, downside bids into the 76 cents level with strong bids likely through to the 0.7580 area, weak stops are likely to be few and far between with stronger bids likely into the 0.7550 level and likely stronger congestion through to the 0.7500 area.
- EUR: Slow drift through the opening hours and into early morning in Tokyo testing the 1.1785 area from the 1.1790’s, a quick dip through to the 1.1775 area only to bounce testing to the 1.1790 area again before holding quietly just below the 1.1790 through to the grey hour, Light offers through the 1.1800 area with weak stops on a move through the 1.1820 area with limit with light offers then running through the 1.1840-60 area before stronger offers start to appear on a test through the 1.1880 level and stronger through the 1.1900 area. Downside bids into the 1.1740-50 area and then increasing on a dip through the 1.1720-1.1680 level with congestion through to the 1.1600 areas.
Overnight News
EUR:
Merkel Threatens Federal takeover to rally Germany against COVID – BBG
CNY/CAD/USD:
China hits US, Canada with sanctions in Xinjiang fallout – BBG
China sanctions US, Canadian individuals, entity
AUD:
Australia pulls job stimulus worth 5% of GDP in test for economy – BBG
Australia’s resources riches have made its economy Covid proof – BBG
This offsets the negativity around the end of jobkeeper short term – BBG
Australia’s Brisbane to enter 3-day lockdown due to virus – BBG
CNY/AUD:
China places tariffs on Australian wine as relations continue to sour – BBG
GBP:
BoE Clamps down on lenders relocating jobs or operations to the EU after becoming concerned – FT
Today’s Data
0700 GBP Nationwide HPI MoM A | P 0.7%
0700 GBP Nationwide HPI YoY A | P 6.9%
2245 NZD Building Consents MoM (FEB) A | P 2.1%
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Opening on its lows the market pushed through into the Tokyo session lifting of the 1.3730 area to test the 1.3760 area before pausing through the early morning part of the session, once the fix was out of the way the market again started a slow rise through into the grey hours, while London was an early seller the market steadily rose through the session as the data helped the market from the early lows and pushed steadily through to early morning testing the 1.3790 area before dropping back for the move into the NYK session and then steady buying through to the 1.3810 area before drifting through to the close.
- JPY: A quiet move through the Asian session rising slowly from the 109.15 lows and pushing through into the fix testing above the 109.30 area before drifting and holding the 109.25 area through into the grey hours, buying then started to show and a steady push through into the NYK session pushing above the 109.80 level on the first run and testing just above the 109.85 level for the high of the day before dropping back off for the London close before pushing back to 109.70 and holding quietly to the close.
- AUD: A steady climb having tested towards the 0.7575 area to push into the Tokyo session checking the 76 cents level before dipping a little and then running through to the grey hours pushing above the 0.87625 area for the move into the London session, a slow drift through to the NYK opening saw the market testing through the 0.7610 level before rising through to test towards the 0.7640 area before dipping for the final hour only to see strong buying move through to the 0.7645 area for the close.
- EUR: Limited session through the day with the market moving off the 1.1770 area testing into the Tokyo session through to the 1.1785 area before holding through into the London session around the 1.1780 area, a light push towards the 1.1800 area was quickly stopped and the market tested back to the lows through into the NYK session where another run higher saw the market testing through the 1.1805 area before drifting through to the close just below the 1.1800 level.
Premiership Results
USD FOMC Member Daly Speaks
JPY Tokyo Core CPI YoY (MAR) A -0.1% | C -0.2% | P -0.3%
JPY CPI Tokyo Ex-Food and Energy MoM (MAR) A 0.2% | P 0.1%
GBP Core Retail Sales YoY (FEB) A -1.1% | C -1.5% | P -3.8%
GBP Core Retail Sales MoM (FEB) A 2.4% | C 1.9% | -8.8%
GBP Retail Sales YoY (FEB) A -3.7% | C -3.5% | P -5.9%
GBP Retail Sales MoM (FEB) A 2.1% | C 2.1% | P -8.2%
EUR Spanish GDP QoQ (Q4) A 0.0% | C 0.4% | P 16.4%
EUR German Business Expectations (MAR) A 100.4 | C 95.0 | P 94.2
EUR German Current Assessment (MAR) A 93.0 | C 91.3 | P 90.6
EUR German IfO Business Climate Index (MAR) A 96.6 | C 93.2 | P 92.4 | R 92.7
EUR EU Leaders summit
EUR Euro Summit
GBP BoE MPC Member Saunders Speaks
EUR German BuBa Mauderer Speaks
USD Goods Trade Balance (FEB) A -86.72b | P -84.58b
USD Retail Inventories Ex-Auto (FEB) A 1.2% | P -0.1% | R 0.2%
USD Core PCE Price Index MoM (FEB) A 0.1% | C 0.1% | P 0.3% | R 0.2%
USD Core PCE Price Index YoY (FEB) A 1.4% | C 1.5% | P 1.5%
USD PCE Price Index YoY (FEB) A 1.6% | P 1.5% | R 1.4%
USD PCE Price Index MoM (FEB) A 0.1% | P 0.3% | R 0.2%
USD Personal Spending MoM (FEB) A -1.0% | C -0.7% | P 2.4% | R 3.4%
USD Michigan Consumer Expectations (MAR) (P) A 79.7 | P 77.5
USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment (MAR) (P) A 84.9 | C 83.6 | P 83
GBP MPC Member Tenreyro Speaks
USD US Baker Hughes Total Rig count A 417 | P 411
Best Regards
Andy
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