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Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

For Today

• GBP: Ranging through the first half of the session having made the low just after the opening through the 1.3760 area and rising to the 1.3775 area and dipping back to the lows again, a steady push through to the 1.3780 area before drifting a little for the move into the grey hour, Downside congestion around the 1.3660-40 area with stronger bids on any push towards the 1.3600 level and weak stops likely on a dip through opening to a deeper move, Topside offers light through to the 1.3800 level with congestion through to the 1.3850 area before opening up to light offers and weak stops through the 1.3900 level and then stronger congestion.
• JPY: Opening around the 109.80 area dipping a little through the level before moving through into the Tokyo session basing on the opening level and then a steady rise through towards the 110.00 area to hold quietly just short of the level, Topside congestion is likely to soak up some of the weak stops above the 110.00 and like the previous spikes at the beginning of last year any move is likely to find resistance above and continuing through the 110.20 with break out stops likely to be a little more nervous, downside bids light through to the 108.00 level with weak stops on any retrace through the 107.80 level and opening a dip to the 106.00 area possible over the coming week.
• AUD: A quiet range through into the Tokyo session rising from the 0.7630 level to rise steadily through to the 0.7665 before drifting back a little for the move into the grey hour, Light topside offers through to the 0.7700 area with weak stops on a move above the 0.7720 area Then stronger offers through to the 0.7840-60 area and then increasing offers onwards through 0.7900, with the offers likely to continue through to the 0.7950 area and likely increasing resistance through to the 0.8000 levels, downside bids into the 76 cents level with strong bids likely through to the 0.7580 area, weak stops are likely to be few and far between with stronger bids likely into the 0.7550 level and likely stronger congestion through to the 0.7500 area.
• EUR: A heavy range with the market unable to push through to the 1.1775 area and for most of the session basing at the opening 1.1760 level through to late into the session before dipping to the 1.1740 level and chunky options in the area, Light offers through the 1.1800 area with weak stops on a move through the 1.1820 area with limit with light offers then running through the 1.1840-60 area before stronger offers start to appear on a test through the 1.1880 level and stronger through the 1.1900 area. Downside bids into the 1.1740-50 area and then increasing on a dip through the 1.1720-1.1680 level with congestion through to the 1.1600 areas.

Overnight News

TRY:
Erdogan removes Turkish Central Bank Deputy Governor – BBG
USD:
Senate democrats push for Capital Gains Tax at death with $1m exemption – DJ
JPY:
Kuroda vows to keep up BoJ ETF purchases – RTRs
EUR:
ECB’s Vasiliauskas warns against shifting policy too quickly – BBG
Vasiliauskas: Too much stimulus is less risky than too little – BBG
Vasiliauskas: QE likely to stay for quite a while after crisis – BBG

EUR/CNY:

EU/China trade deal is a Trojan Horse sellout – AFR

Today’s Data

NZD Building Consents MoM (FEB) A -18.2% | P 2.1% | R 1.5%
JPY Jobs/applications ratio (FEB) A 1.09 | C 1.10 | P 1.10
JPY Retail Sales YoY (FEB) A -1.5% | C -2.8% | P -2.4%
0800 CHF KOF Leading Indicators (MAR) A 104.60 | P 102.70
0800 EUR Spanish CPI YoY (P) A | P 0.0%
0800 EUR Spanish HICP YoY (MAR) (P) A | C 0.9% | P -0.1%
1300 EUR German CPI MoM (MAR) (P) A | C 0.5% | P 0.7%
1400 USD S&P/CS HPI Composite -20 n.s.a. YoY (JAN) A | C 11.0% | P 10.1%
1500 USD CB Consumer Confidence (MAR) A | C 96.9 | P 91.3
2130 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock A | P 2.927m

Harry Hindsight

• GBP: Limping through the Asian session in reasonably quiet session, opening around the 1.3790 area and then slipping through into early Tokyo testing to the 1.3765 areas with a steady rise to the opening levels again before again running lower through to the grey hours, a steady rise as the buyers moved into the market pushing steadily through into the London session testing to the 1.3835 area, struggling with the level the market pushed eventually through to just above the 1.3845 area before dipping for a run through to the 1.3760 level holding quietly too the close.
• JPY: Rising from the opening through to the 109.80 level and into the offers before dropping back for the Fix and following through on a move through to the 109.45 area to pause for the move into the grey hour and then testing to the low quickly on a dip to the 109.40 area before a slow steady climb through the day in a reasonably tight channel to push again above the 109.80and a short run to the close.
• AUD: A reasonably quiet session for the Oz with the market holding in a tight range through the day, Opening around the 0.7640 area and that remained the centre of attraction, the move into the grey hour saw the market testing through the 0.7620 level before steadily rising through the 0.7655 area for the move into the NYK session before ending the day holding 0.7635 level.
• EUR: Drifting off the 1.1795 area high for the day and then running slowly lower through to the 1.1775 level into Tokyo with the market then chopping around the 1.1775-90 level through into the London opening with London selling from the highs again to test through the 1.1765 level just above the days lows before holding and rising again on the move into the NYK session and the market testing through to the 1.1760 for the lows before settling for the move into the close just off the levels as the market holds for some lumpy option cuts this week.

Best Regards
Andy

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