Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 110.348 | EURUSD 1.1716 | AUDUSD 0.75958 | NZDUSD 0.69802 | USDCAD 1.26303 | USDCHF 0.94212 | GBPUSD 1.37402 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.17259 | 1.17047
USDJPY 110.969 | 110.282
GBPUSD 1.37509 | 1.37186
USDCHF 0.94416 | 0.94175
AUDUSD 0.76189 | 0.75936
NZDUSD 0.69941 | 0.69744
USDCAD 1.26388 | 1.26091
EURCHF 1.10647 | 1.10351
EURGBP 0.85338 | 0.85229
EURJPY 129.859 s 129.26
For Today
- GBP: A slow rise through into the Tokyo session pushing from the 1.3735 level to eventually break the 1.3750 level and then drift through the rest of the session testing to the 1.3720 level to hold around the 1.3725 area for the grey hour, Downside congestion around the 1.3660-40 area with stronger bids on any push towards the 1.3600 level and weak stops likely on a dip through opening to a deeper move, Topside offers light through to the 1.3800 level with congestion through to the 1.3850 area before opening up to light offers and weak stops through the 1.3900 level and then stronger congestion.
- JPY: A slow drift through the early session into the Tokyo session pushing lightly through the 110.30 area before quickly rising through the opening 110.35 level and testing to the 110.75 before pausing for a short period, after a couple of hours the market ran again testing this time to just short of the 111.00 area holding around the 110.85 area for the grey hour, Topside light congestion through to the 111.80 level before stronger offers are likely matching the highs from the beginning of the previous two years at the same period of time, a break of the 112.30 area is likely to see strong stops appearing and the market opening for further push beyond the last couple of years highs. Before running through to the 112.50 area and another set of stronger offers appearing continuing through to the 112.80 level and likely continue seeing strong offers, downside bids light back through the 110 level and likely to continue to 109.80 with weak stops likely through the level and weak through to the 109.00 area.
- AUD: Slow rise through into the Tokyo session lifting from the 0.7600 level and quickly testing higher to push the 0.7620 area before drifting back again and then holding around the 0.7605 area, Then stronger offers through to the 0.7840-60 area and then increasing offers onwards through 0.7900, with the offers likely to continue through to the 0.7950 area and likely increasing resistance through to the 0.8000 levels, downside bids into the 76 cents level with strong bids likely through to the 0.7580 area, weak stops are likely to be few and far between with stronger bids likely into the 0.7550 level and likely stronger congestion through to the 0.7500 area.
- EUR: Light testing from the opening around the trading through into a slow rising Euro from the opening 1.1715 area and pushing only as far as the 1.1725 area before dropping back fot eh market to test the 1.1705 area for the grey hour, Light offers through the 1.1800 area with weak stops on a move through the 1.1820 area with limit with light offers then running through the 1.1840-60 area before stronger offers start to appear on a test through the 1.1880 level and stronger through the 1.1900 area. Downside bids into the 1.1700-1.1680 area with weak stops on a move through and then congestive bids into the 1.1650 area and continuing through to the 1.1600 where better bids are likely to be seen with weak stops through the level opening a deeper move as a possibility.
Overnight News
USD:
FOMC’s Barkin says he is very bullish on 2021, we are going to have an extremely strong spring and summer – RTRs
Barkin: Pent-up demand supply shortages will push prices up this year, but businesses expect it to be one-time, not long term – RTRs
Barkin: There’s no way we spend all these excess savings this year, that will support economy in 2022, 2023 – RTRs
Biden to map $2t economic plan in reborn Pittsburgh – BBG
Biden infrastructure plan said to include 28% Corporate tax rate – BBG
GBP:
UK employers turn much more confident about hiring – RTRs
JPY:
Japan raises alert level after volcano erupts – AFP
Today’s Data
JPY Industrial Production MoM (FEB) A -2.1% | C -1.2% | P 4.3%
NZD ANZ Business Confidence (MAR) A -4.1% | P 7.0
AUD Building Approvals MoM (FEB) (P) A 21.6% | C 5.0% | P -19.4%
AUD Private Sector Credit MoM (FEB) A 0.2% | P 0.3%
CNY Chinese Composite PMI (MAR) A 55.3 | P 51.6
CNY Manufacturing PMI (MAR) A 51.9 | C 51.0 | P 50.6
CNY Business Investment QoQ (Q4) A 56.3 | P 51.4
0700 GBP Business Investment QoQ (Q4) A | P 1.3%
0700 GBP Current Account (Q4) A | C -34.0b | P -15.7b
0700 GBP GDP YoY (Q4) A | C -7.8% | P -7.8%
0700 GBP GDP QoQ (Q4) A | C 1.0% | P 1.0%
0700 GBP Nationwide HPI YoY (MAR) A | C 6.4% | P 6.9%
0700 GBP Nationwide HPI MoM (MAR) A | C 0.4% | P 0.7%
0855 EUR German unemployment Change (MAR) A | C -3k | P 9k
0855 EUR German Unemployment Rate (MAR) A | C 6.0% | P 6.0%
1000 EUR Core CPI YoY (P) A | P 1.1%
1000 EUR CPI YoY (P) A | C 1.3% | P 0.9%
1000 EUR CPI MoM (P) A | P 0.2%
1315 USD NonFarm Employment Change (MAR) A | C 550k | P 117k
1330 CAD GDP MoM (JAN) A | C 0.5% | P 0.1%
1330 CAD RMPI MoM (FEB) A | P 5.7%
1445 USD Chicago PMI (MAR) A | C 60.7 | P 59.5
1500 USD Pending Home Sales MoM (FEB) A | C -2.9% | P -2.8%
1530 USD Crude Oil Inventories A | C 0.107m | P 1.912m
2230 AUD AIG Manufacturing Index (MAR) A | P 58.8
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: A slight rise through the Asian session opening around the 1.3760 level and slowly pushing through to test towards the 1.3785 level before dipping for the move through the grey hour and the London opening, London recovered from the test below 1.3745 level to again test towards the high before steadily drifting through to the 1.3705 level for the London close and after a period holding around the 1.3715 area pushed to the close.
- JPY: A limited rise with the market opening around the 109.85 area and dipping to the 109.80 for the low of the day, a slow rise through to the grey hour saw the market holding just below the 110.00 area with early London then stepping in to take the market through to the 110.25 area and a slower rise through to the 110.30 area to hold tightly around the level, the move into the NYK session saw the highs just above the 110.40 level and holding for a short period before drifting a little and a long run to the close.
- AUD: Quiet early part too the session in Asia holding around the 0.7634 level opening before dipping after the fix and then running through to the 0.7665 area for the highs of the day and a slow drift through into the London opening just below the 0.7630 area pausing for a couple of hours and then dipping again testing the 76 cents level holding through into the NYK session ranging around the 0.7610 area before sellers on the London close sent the market through to the 0.7585 area for the lows and then slowly rise towards the figure level.
- EUR: Rising a little from the opening to range for several hours around the 1.1770area making the high around the 1.1774 level before drifting through to the grey hours dipping away from the 1.1760 level to slowly touch through to the 1.1730 area, a slow drift through London saw the market dipping after the London opening to test the 1.1710 as the market fades the market on multiple commentaries from uninspiring MEP’s so one wonders if there is some organization in there, the market then quietly ranged around the 1.1720 area to the close in quiet trading.
Premier League Results
NZD Building Consents MoM (FEB) A -18.2% | P 2.1% | R 1.5%
JPY Jobs/applications ratio (FEB) A 1.09 | C 1.10 | P 1.10
JPY Retail Sales YoY (FEB) A -1.5% | C -2.8% | P -2.4%
CHF KOF Leading Indicators (MAR) A 117.8 | C 104.60 | P 102.70 | R 102.60
EUR Spanish CPI YoY (P) A 1.3% | P 0.0%
EUR Spanish HICP YoY (MAR) (P) A 1.2% | C 0.9% | P -0.1%
EUR German CPI MoM (MAR) (P) A 0.5% | C 0.5% | P 0.7%
USD S&P/CS HPI Composite -20 n.s.a. YoY (JAN) A 11.1% | C 11.0% | P 10.1% | R 10.2%
USD CB Consumer Confidence (MAR) A 109.7 | C 96.9 | P 91.3 | R 90.4
USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock A | P 2.927m
Best Regards
Andy
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