Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 110.712 | EURUSD 1.17302 | AUDUSD 0.75959 | NZDUSD 0.69936 | USDCAD 1.25617 | USDCHF 0.94374 | GBPUSD 1.37834 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.17328 | 1.17211
USDJPY 110.827 | 110.571
GBPUSD 1.37903 | 1.37745
USDCHF 0.94522 | 0.94338
AUDUSD 0.76000 | 0.75644
NZDUSD 0.69882 | 0.69623
USDCAD 1.25901 | 1.25572
EURCHF 1.10830 | 1.10660
EURGBP 0.85140 | 0.8503
EURJPY 130.004 | 129.648
For Today
- GBP: A very quiet session with the market for the most part contained in the 1.3790/80 level with a light drifting into the high 1.3770’s for the move into the grey hour, Downside congestion around the 1.3660-40 area with stronger bids on any push towards the 1.3600 level and weak stops likely on a dip through opening to a deeper move, Topside offers light through to the 1.3800 level with congestion through to the 1.3850 area before opening up to light offers and weak stops through the 1.3900 level and then stronger congestion.
- JPY: Light movement with the market rising a little through to the 110.80’s before drifting through to the 110.60 level in quiet trading before settling into the mid area for the move into the grey hour, Topside light congestion through to the 111.80 level before stronger offers are likely matching the highs from the beginning of the previous two years at the same period of time, a break of the 112.30 area is likely to see strong stops appearing and the market opening for further push beyond the last couple of years highs. Before running through to the 112.50 area and another set of stronger offers appearing continuing through to the 112.80 level and likely continue seeing strong offers, downside bids light back through the 110 level and likely to continue to 109.80 with weak stops likely through the level and weak through to the 109.00 area.
- AUD: Moving into the Tokyo session testing the 76 cents before drifting through the session through to the 0.7565 level for the move into the grey hour in a tight channelled move, light offers through the 0.7700 area with weak stops through the level and the market opening to the 78 cents area before stronger offers through to the 0.7840-60 area and then increasing offers onwards through 0.7900, with the offers likely to continue through to the 0.7950 area and likely increasing resistance through to the 0.8000 levels, downside bids into the 76 cents level with strong bids likely through to the 0.7580 area, weak stops are likely to be few and far between with stronger bids likely into the 0.7550 level and likely stronger congestion through to the 0.7500 area.
- EUR: Basing above the 1.1720 level for the session with a minor move above the 1.1730 area in light trading before returning to the base for the move into the grey hour, Light offers through the 1.1800 area with weak stops on a move through the 1.1820 area with limit with light offers then running through the 1.1840-60 area before stronger offers start to appear on a test through the 1.1880 level and stronger through the 1.1900 area. Downside bids into the 1.1700-1.1680 area with weak stops on a move through and then congestive bids into the 1.1650 area and continuing through to the 1.1600 where better bids are likely to be seen with weak stops through the level opening a deeper move as a possibility.
Overnight News
USD:
Biden proposes lifting corporate tax rate to 28% – AFR
EUR:
France and Italy extend curbs as Brazil record deaths – BBG
CAD:
Canada’s Ontario to be in lockdown for 28 days, – CBC
BoC Governor sees worrying signs in housing market – BBG
Today’s Data
AUD AIG Manufacturing Index (MAR) A 59.9 | P 58.8
JPY Tankan All Big Industry CAPEX (Q1) A 3.0% | C 1.4% | P -1.2%
JPY Tankan Big Manufacturing Outlook Index (Q1) A 4 | C 4 | P -8
JPY Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q1) A 5 | C -15 | P -10
JPY Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index (Q1) A -1 | C -5 | P -5
AUD Home Loans MoM A -1.8% | P 12.3% | R 10.9%
AUD Retail Sales MoM (FEB) A -0.8% | C -1.1% | P 0.5%
AUD Trade Balance (FEB) A 7.529b | C 9.70b | P 10.142b
CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI (MAR) A 50.6 | C 51.3 | P 50.9
0700 EUR Germany Retail Sales MoM (FEB) A | C 2.0% | P -4.5%
0730 CHF Retail Sales YoY (FEB) A | P -0.5%
0730 CHF CPI MoM (MAR) A | C 0.4% | P 0.2%
0815 EUR Spanish Manufacturing PMI (MAR) A | C 56.0 | P 52.9
0830 CHF procure.ch PMI (MAR) A | C 65.5 | P 61.3
0855 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (MAR) A | C 66.6 | P 66.6
0900 EUR Manufacturing PMI (MAR) A | C 62.4 | P 62.4
0930 GBP Manufacturing PMI (MAR) A | C 57.9 | P 57.9
1100 USD OPEC Meeting
1330 USD Initial Jobless Claims A | C 680k | P 684k
1330 CAD Building Permits MoM (FEB) A | C -1.4% | P 8.2%
1445 USD Manufacturing PMI (MAR) A | C 59.0 | P 58.6
1500 USD ISM Manufacturing Employment (MAR) A | C 53.0 | P 54.4
1500 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (MAR) A | C 61.3 | P 60.8
1800 USD US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count A | P 417
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: A light rise through from the opening around the 1.3725 area to push lightly above the 1.3750 area before drifting for the rest of the Asian session falling through to the 1.3715 area lows for the grey hour, quickly pushing through to the 1.3750 area for the London opening and after a brief pause running again this time running into offers into the 1.3795 area before falling back to the 1.3760 level to hold through into the NYK session before again trying the topside pushing through the figure level as long weekend buying moved through the market testing to the 1.3810 level before drifting to hold the 1.3780 area for the close
- JPY: A quiet opening around the 110.30 area and holding through into the Tokyo fix before lifting off the 110.25 lows of the day to quickly push through the 110.70 level to range quietly for a couple of hours then running for another run to the 110.95 level for the high of the day, the market then held for an extended period ranging around the 110.85 level for the move into the grey hour, the market again attempted the topside before dropping back quickly to the 110.70 level and then slipped through into early London basing on the 110.50 area with a 50/85 range through to the close with a minor dip below the 110.50 level and then finishing around the 110.75 level.
- AUD: A light rise through into the Tokyo session from the opening around the 0.7595 area pushing through the 76 cents level to eventually hold below the 0.7620 area and a slow drift through the Asian session testing the 0.7590 for the grey hour, early buying saw the market pushing through to the 0.7620 area and a quiet range through to the NYK session sending the market through to the 0.7640 level before returning quickly back to the 0.7610 level and a slow drift through to the close.
- EUR: Early buyers were limited however, the market made it from the 1.1715 level to push to the 1.1725 area, after a couple of hours in Tokyo the sellers moved through in an attempt to break the 1.1700 level unable to push beyond the 1.1704 area for the move into the grey hour and buying through to the London opening testing through the 1.1730 level for a limited second run from that opening to the 1.1748 level before drifting and ranging through into the NYK session around the 1.1730 level, NYK USD sellers saw the Euro extend the highs through to the 1.1760 level and falling just as quickly back and holding in the 1.1720-30 level to the close.
Premier League Results
JPY Industrial Production MoM (FEB) A -2.1% | C -1.2% | P 4.3%
NZD ANZ Business Confidence (MAR) A -4.1% | P 7.0
AUD Building Approvals MoM (FEB) (P) A 21.6% | C 5.0% | P -19.4%
AUD Private Sector Credit MoM (FEB) A 0.2% | P 0.3%
CNY Chinese Composite PMI (MAR) A 55.3 | P 51.6
CNY Manufacturing PMI (MAR) A 51.9 | C 51.0 | P 50.6
CNY Business Investment QoQ (Q4) A 56.3 | P 51.4
GBP Business Investment QoQ (Q4) A 5.9% | P 1.3%
GBP Current Account (Q4) A -26.3b | C -34.0b | P -15.7b | R -14.3b
GBP GDP YoY (Q4) A -7.3% | C -7.8% | P -7.8%
GBP GDP QoQ (Q4) A 1.3% | C 1.0% | P 1.0%
GBP Nationwide HPI YoY (MAR) A 5.7% | C 6.4% | P 6.9%
GBP Nationwide HPI MoM (MAR) A -0.2% | C 0.4% | P 0.7%
EUR German unemployment Change (MAR) A -8k| C -3k | P 9k
EUR German Unemployment Rate (MAR) A 6.0% | C 6.0% | P 6.0%
EUR Core CPI YoY (P) A 0.9% | P 1.1%
EUR CPI YoY (P) A 1.3% | C 1.3% | P 0.9%
EUR CPI MoM (P) A 0.9% | P 0.2%
USD NonFarm Employment Change (MAR) A 517k | C 550k | P 117k
CAD GDP MoM (JAN) A 0.7% | C 0.5% | P 0.1%
CAD RMPI MoM (FEB) A 6.6% | P 5.7%
USD Chicago PMI (MAR) A 66.3 | C 60.7 | P 59.5
USD Pending Home Sales MoM (FEB) A -10.6% | C -2.9% | P -2.8%
USD Crude Oil Inventories A -0.876m | C 0.107m | P 1.912m
Best Regards
Andy
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