Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 110.601 | EURUSD 1.17775 | AUDUSD 0.76171 | NZDUSD 0.70214 | USDCAD 1.25476 | USDCHF 0.94177 | GBPUSD 1.38336 |

 

LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT

Highs | Lows   

EURUSD               1.17840 | 1.17693

USDJPY                110.669 | 110.520

GBPUSD              1.38516 | 1.38284

USDCHF              0.94265 | 0.94154

AUDUSD              0.76373 | 0.76139

NZDUSD              0.70405 | 0.70208

USDCAD              1.25481 | 1.25294

EURCHF               1.10963 | 1.10892

EURGBP              0.85179 | 0.85028

EURJPY                130.326 | 130.163

 

For Today

 

  • GBP: Bank holidays through throughout the market so limited movement, opening around the 1.3830 area and pushing through into the 1.3845 level for a limited period before drifting back and running for the second time testing the 1.3850 area and then slow range around the 1.3845 level to the grey hours, Topside offers congested around the level and increasing through to the 1.3900 area, some weak stops likely to be absorbed by congestion that is likely to continue through to the 1.4000 area before stops increase. Downside bids light through the 1.3800 level and then light bids through to the 1.3700 area where bids are likely to increase through to the 1.3650 area before weak stops appear.
  • JPY: A quiet range around the 110.60 area with a limited dip through towards the 110.50 area in early Tokyo before rising back through to the 110.66 level before settling back to range around the opening level again. Topside light congestion through to the 111.80 level before stronger offers are likely matching the highs from the beginning of the previous two years at the same period of time, a break of the 112.30 area is likely to see strong stops appearing and the market opening for further push beyond the last couple of years highs. Before running through to the 112.50 area and another set of stronger offers appearing continuing through to the 112.80 level and likely continue seeing strong offers, downside bids light back through the 110 level and likely to continue to 109.80 with weak stops likely through the level and weak through to the 109.00 area.
  • AUD: Quiet trading through to the Tokyo fix where the market lifted from the 0.7615 area testing through the 0.7630 level ranging quietly and squeezing a little to the highs for the session before dipping and holding to the grey hour around the 0.7630, light offers through the 0.7700 area with weak stops through the level and the market opening to the 78 cents area before stronger offers through to the 0.7840-60 area and then increasing offers onwards through 0.7900, with the offers likely to continue through to the 0.7950 area and likely increasing resistance through to the 0.8000 levels, downside bids into the 76 cents level with strong bids likely through to the 0.7580 area, weak stops are likely to be few and far between with stronger bids likely into the 0.7550 level and likely stronger congestion through to the 0.7500 area.
  • EUR: Light rise through the 1.1780 area with a light push through to the 1.1785 area before dipping back to the 1.1770 level and a slow rise through to the grey hour pushing to the 1.1780 area for a slow move into the grey hour, Light offers through the 1.1800 area with weak stops on a move through the 1.1820 area with limit with light offers then running through the 1.1840-60 area before stronger offers start to appear on a test through the 1.1880 level and stronger through the 1.1900 area. Downside bids into the 1.1700-1.1680  area with weak stops on a move through  and then congestive bids into the 1.1650 area and continuing through to the 1.1600 where better bids are likely to be seen with weak stops through the level opening a deeper move as a possibility.

 

 

Overnight News

 

USD:

China, Asia to fill bulk of surging US demand for goods as Global trade rebounds from coronavirus – WTO

Bidenomics is as American as Apple pie – NYT

EUR/RUB:

Suspected Italian spy gave Russia highly confidential material – RTRs

GBP/EUR:

Netherlands asked to share in the cost of the Helix vaccine producer, they refused, and the UK continued with paying £20m for the conversion to make AZ vaccine.

EUR:

Dutch PM Rutte censured but survives no confidence vote – RTRs

 

Today’s Data

USD       Holiday Good Friday

GBP        Holiday Good Friday

EUR       Holiday Good Friday

CHF        Holiday Good Friday

AUD       Holiday Good Friday

SGD        Holiday Good Friday

HKD       Holiday Good Friday

CAD       Holiday Good Friday

NZD       Holiday Good Friday

1330      USD       Average Hourly Earnings MoM (MAR) A | C 0.1% | P 0.2%

1330      USD       Average Hourly Earnings YoY (MAR) A | C 4.5% | P 5.3%

1330      USD       NonFarm Payrolls (MAR) A | C 647k | P 379k

1330      USD       Participation Rate (MAR) A | P 61.4%

1330      USD       Private Nonfarm Payrolls A | C 575k | P 468k

1330      USD       Unemployment Rate (MAR) A | C 6.0% | P 6.2%

 

Harry Hindsight

 

  • GBP: A tight range through to late in the Asian session, holding around the 1.3780-90 through to the midsession before slowly drifting through 1.3775 area and testing to the 1.3760 level for the move into the grey hour and then testing to the lows for the opening with a quick bounce off the 1.3745 area and pushing through to just below the 1.3795 level, a slow drift again through to the 1.3760 area before starting a slow steady grind through to the 1.3830 before finding some resistance and then pushing to the 1.3835 level and holding just below the level through to the close.
  • JPY: Opening above the 110.72 area rising slightly through to the 110.80, pushing through the level shortly after to test lightly above before drifting through to midsession testing just through the 110.60 level and recovered through into the grey hour, grey hour selling was then reversed on the London opening and a test through to the 110.85 area before drifting back for the opening in NYK trading quietly around the 110.70 level and then dipping again and basing on the 110.55 level through to the close.
  • AUD: Testing the 76 cent level early in the session before dipping through the Tokyo session in a steady move through to the 0.7570 area into the midsession before increasing its pace to touch through to the 0.7530 level before hitting the grey hour and early London buying sending it back through to the 0.7570 area and a short range period then from late morning in London it was all steady buying through to the 0.7620 level before slowing and ranging quietly to a long run to the close.
  • EUR: Holding quietly below the 1.1730 area and moving through to midsession dipping through to the lows testing towards the 1.1710 area before grey hour buying moved in to push through to the 1.1740 level and a quiet range through to the NYK opening, after a bounce start the market steadily moved through to the 1.1780 area ranging just below to the close.

 

 

Premier League Results

AUD       AIG Manufacturing Index (MAR) A 59.9 | P 58.8

JPY         Tankan All Big Industry CAPEX (Q1) A 3.0% | C 1.4% | P -1.2%

JPY         Tankan Big Manufacturing Outlook Index (Q1) A 4 | C 4 | P -8

JPY         Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q1) A 5 | C -15 | P -10

JPY         Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index (Q1) A -1 | C -5 | P -5

AUD       Home Loans MoM A -1.8% | P 12.3% | R 10.9%

AUD       Retail Sales MoM (FEB) A -0.8% | C -1.1% | P 0.5%

AUD       Trade Balance (FEB) A 7.529b | C 9.70b | P 10.142b

CNY       Caixin Manufacturing PMI (MAR) A 50.6 | C 51.3 | P 50.9

EUR       Germany Retail Sales MoM (FEB) A 1.2% | C 2.0% | P -4.5%

CHF        Retail Sales YoY (FEB) A -6.3% | P -0.5% | R -0.7%

CHF        CPI MoM (MAR) A 0.3% | C 0.4% | P 0.2%

EUR       Spanish Manufacturing PMI (MAR) A 56.9 | C 56.0 | P 52.9

CHF        procure.ch PMI (MAR) A 66.3 | C 65.5 | P 61.3

EUR       German Manufacturing PMI (MAR) A 66.6 | C 66.6 | P 66.6

EUR       Manufacturing PMI (MAR) A 62.5 | C 62.4 | P 62.4

GBP        Manufacturing PMI (MAR) A 58.9 | C 57.9 | P 57.9

USD       OPEC Meeting

USD       Initial Jobless Claims A 719k | C 680k | P 684k | R 658k

CAD       Building Permits MoM (FEB) A 2.1% | C -1.4% | P 8.2% | R 6.9%

USD       Manufacturing PMI (MAR) A 59.1 | C 59.0 | P 58.6

USD       ISM Manufacturing Employment (MAR) A 59.6 | C 53.0 | P 54.4

USD       ISM Manufacturing PMI (MAR) A 64.7 | C 61.3 | P 60.8

USD       US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count A 430 | P 417

 

Best Regards

Andy

 

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LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   Andy Harrison  

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information ("information") contained on this Blog, constitutes marketing communication and it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the information contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. LMAX Group has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

LMAX Group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the produced information was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX Group does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX Group or any other FX and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.