Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 109.837 | EURUSD 1.18716 | AUDUSD 0.76131 | NZDUSD 0.70079 | USDCAD 1.26094 | USDCHF 0.92958 | GBPUSD 1.3738 |

 

LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT

Highs | Lows   

EURUSD               1.18742 | 1.18588

USDJPY                109.905 | 109.698

GBPUSD              1.37622 | 1.37326

USDCHF              0.93018 | 0.92922

AUDUSD              0.76242 | 0.7604

NZDUSD              0.70207 | 0.70039

USDCAD              1.26258 | 1.26078

EURCHF               1.10431 | 1.10321

EURGBP              0.86431 | 0.86255

EURJPY                130.492 | 130.179

 

For Today

  • GBP: Quiet opening through into the Tokyo session with the market holding around the 1.3735-40 area and not until midsession did the market start a stronger move slowly rising through to the 1.3760 area for the move into the grey hour, Topside offers congested light through the 1.3800 area before increasing through to the 1.3900 area, some weak stops likely to be absorbed by congestion that is likely to continue through to the 1.4000 area before stops increase. Downside bids through the 1.3720 level and any technical move from the H&S pattern likely to be done so likely to see congestion on any move through the 1.3700 level with weak stops likely through the 1.3680 area and then congestive just beyond the break and through to the 1.3650 where stiffer bids start to appear.
  • JPY: Holding quietly around the opening 109.82 area then into the Tokyo session testing the 109.90 level before drifting from that point off through to the 109.70 for a limited range through into the grey hour, Topside light congestion through to the 110.80 level before weak stops then weakness through to the stronger offers around the 111.80 area matching the highs from the beginning of the previous two years at the same period of time, a break of the 112.30 area is likely to see strong stops appearing and the market opening for further push beyond the last couple of years highs. Before running through to the 112.50 area and another set of stronger offers appearing continuing through to the 112.80 level and likely continue seeing strong offers, downside bids light through to the 109.00 area, with weak stops through the 108.80 area likely to run into stronger bids through the 108.40-60 area and then into the 108.20-107.80 before stronger stops appear.
  • AUD: Ranging though to midsession before dipping through the 0.7610 level to test lightly through the 0.7605 to set the low, after a brief attempt to the downside the market moved back to the opening area and this time tested in the other direction squeezing through towards the 0.7625 area, light offers through the 0.7700 area with weak stops through the level and the market opening to the 78 cents area before stronger offers through to the 0.7840-60 area and then increasing offers onwards through 0.7900, with the offers likely to continue through to the 0.7950 area and likely increasing resistance through to the 0.8000 levels, downside bids into the 76 cents level with strong bids likely through to the 0.7580 area, weak stops are likely to be few and far between with stronger bids likely into the 0.7550 level and likely stronger congestion through to the 0.7500 area.
  • EUR: Tight range throughout with the market ranging between the 1.1860-75 area not quiet reaching either end, opening just below the 1.1870 level and dipping into Tokyo to make the downside level before slowly regaining the opening levels to push just to the 1.1873-4 area for the high, , Downside bids into the 1.1700-1.1680  area with weak stops on a move through  and then congestive bids into the 1.1650 area and continuing through to the 1.1600 where better bids are likely to be seen with weak stops through the level opening a deeper move as a possibility.  Topside offers into the 1.1880-1.1900 area light with possible weak stops on a push above the 1.1920 area likely to be a little stronger after yesterday’s failure sellers likely to fade the move with increasing stronger offers again appearing on any push at the 1.1940-60 area and the congestion then increasing on any move through to the 1.2000 area.

 

 

Overnight News

 

EUR:

Moderna to miss major delivery of vaccine doses to Germany – BBG

Kaczynski warns Coalition won’t last if EU stimulus plan isn’t passed – BBG

Lane: Monetary policy must get us closer to inflation goal

ECB’s Lane Favourable financing conditions must be maintained

CAD:

Ontario declares emergency again, puts new curbs on business – BBG

AUD/GBP:

More than 700k Astrazeneca doses flown secretly to Australia from UK – SYH

Golden days are over, retailers win battle as rents reset – AFR

USD:

Joe Manchin says there is no circumstance in which he would back weakening the filibuster – NYT

 

Today’s Data

GBP        RICS House Price Balance (MAR) A 59% | C 55% | P 52% | R 54%

JPY         Adjusted Current Account A 1.79t | P 1.50t

JPY         Current Account n.s.a. (FEB) A 2.917t | C 1.966t | 0.647t

NZD       ANZ Business Confidence (P) A -8.4 | P -4.1

0700      EUR       German Factory Orders MoM (FEB) A | C 1.2% | P 1.4%

0930      GBP        Construction PMI (MAR) A | C 54.6 | P 53.3

1230      EUR       ECB Monetary Policy Statement

1330      USD       Initial Jobless Claims A | C 680k | P 719k

1700      USD       FED Chair Powell Speaks

 

Harry Hindsight

 

  • GBP: Opening just above the 1.3820 area and holding in a tight range through into the Tokyo session before pushing gradually through to the highs around the 1.3840 level, the market then drifted back to the opening area again and dipped on the move through to the grey hour to test into that period around the 1.3775 level before some buying appeared to push the market back towards the highs however, as with the previous 24 hrs the move into the NYK session saw the market moving steadily through to the 1.3730 level bouncing towards the 1.3800 area and then dipping again and a slow run to the 1.3725 lows holding just off the level to the close.
  • JPY: A rangy day with the market opening around the 109.80 area and then continuing to range through to the close with the market dipping through the 109.60 level to make the lows in early Tokyo before rising again to the 109.80 level to range through into the London session, the market pushed to the highs just short of the 109.85 level and that set the days range and although GBPJPY selling into the NYK opening saw the USDJPY again on its lows the market eventually returned to the 109.80 area for the close.
  • AUD: A little drift from the opening testing 0.7660 before rallying through to the high of the day pushing just short of the 0.7680 level before drifting off again and then holding for a few hours around the 0.7650 areas, the move through into the grey hour and the London session saw the AUD dropping back to the 0.7620 area and then ranging around the 0.7620-30 area through to the NYK session with a brief run to the 0.7645 area be3fore returning to the lows and then dipping through to the 76 cents area only to finish around the 0.7610 area for the close.
  • EUR: Holding in a tight range around the 1.1865-75 area through the Asian session with the move into the London session not really increasing that much pushing lightly above the 1.1880 area with a steady rise after a couple of hours testing through to the 1.1895 level drifting off the level before the NYK session, NYK took the market to the highs with a push through to the 1.1915 level, as quickly as the market moved there the return was just as quick with the market drifting to the 1.1880 level through the London close before dipping through to the 1.1860 low for the day and a return to the opening level saw the day close.

 

Premier League Results

EUR       Spanish Services PMI (MAR) A 48.1 | C 46.0 | P 43.1

EUR       German Services PMI (MAR) A 51.5 | C 50.8 | P 45.7

EUR       Markit Composite PMI (MAR) A 53.2 | C 52.5 | P 48.8

EUR       Services PMI (MAR) A 49.6 | C 48.8 | P 45.7

GBP        Composite PMI (MAR) A 56.4 | C 56.6 | P 56.6

GBP        Services PMI (MAR) A 56.3 | C 56.8 | P 56.8

USD       Exports A 187.3b | P 191.90b

USD       Imports A 258.3b | P 260.20b

USD       Trade Balance (FEB) A -71.10b | C -70.50b | P 68.20b | R -67.80b

CAD       Trade Balance (FEB) A 1.04b | C 1.00b | P 1.41b | R 1.21b

CAD       Ivey PMI (MAR) A 72.9 | C 60.5 | P 60.0

USD       Crude Oil Inventories A -3.522m | P 0.782m

USD       FOMC Meeting Minutes

 

Best Regards

Andy

 

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LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   Andy Harrison  

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information ("information") contained on this Blog, constitutes marketing communication and it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the information contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. LMAX Group has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

LMAX Group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the produced information was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX Group does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX Group or any other FX and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.