Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 109.268 | EURUSD 1.19157 | AUDUSD 0.76535 | NZDUSD 0.70551 | USDCAD 1.25615 | USDCHF 0.92416 | GBPUSD 1.37351 |

 

LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT

Highs | Lows   

EURUSD               1.19199 | 1.1903

USDJPY                109.394 | 109.214

GBPUSD              1.37506 | 1.3722

USDCHF              0.92479 | 0.92384

AUDUSD              0.76607 | 0.76346

NZDUSD              0.70651 | 0.70434

USDCAD              1.25765 | 1.25555

EURCHF               1.10157 | 1.10060

EURGBP              0.86815 | 0.86655

EURJPY                130.324 | 130.067

 

For Today

 

  • GBP: Light trading with early dip towards the 1.3720 level before moving slowly through to the 1.3750 as Tokyo early buyers appeared, the move through to the grey hour saw the market adrift and the market unchanged for the move into the grey hour, Topside offers congested light through the 1.3800 area before increasing through to the 1.3900 area, some weak stops likely to be absorbed by congestion that is likely to continue through to the 1.4000 area before stops increase. Downside bids through the 1.3720 level and any technical move from the H&S pattern likely to be done so likely to see congestion on any move through the 1.3700 level with weak stops likely through the 1.3680 area and then congestive just beyond the break and through to the 1.3650 where stiffer bids start to appear.
  • JPY: A very quiet session with the market moving off the 109.20 low opening to push through to the 109.40 into the Tokyo session range before drifting back and holding around the 109.30 area for the move into the grey hour, , Topside light congestion through to the 110.80 level before weak stops then weakness through to the stronger offers around the 111.80 area matching the highs from the beginning of the previous two years at the same period of time, a break of the 112.30 area is likely to see strong stops appearing and the market opening for further push beyond the last couple of years highs. Before running through to the 112.50 area and another set of stronger offers appearing continuing through to the 112.80 level and likely continue seeing strong offers, downside bids light through to the 109.00 area, with weak stops through the 108.80 area likely to run into stronger bids through the 108.40-60 area and then into the 108.20-107.80 before stronger stops appear.
  • AUD: Ranging quietly around the d0.7650 through into the Tokyo opening and a limited test to the 0.7660 level before rejecting the level and dipping back to the 0.7640 area through to the grey hour holding just above the 0.7635 low, , light offers through the 0.7700 area with weak stops through the level and the market opening to the 78 cents area before stronger offers through to the 0.7840-60 area and then increasing offers onwards through 0.7900, with the offers likely to continue through to the 0.7950 area and likely increasing resistance through to the 0.8000 levels, downside bids into the 76 cents level with strong bids likely through to the 0.7580 area, weak stops are likely to be few and far between with stronger bids likely into the 0.7550 level and likely stronger congestion through to the 0.7500 area.
  • EUR: A limited rise through to the 1.1920 area for the high of the range before dipping back quickly to push through the 1.1910 area and then holding on to the 1.1900 level for the move into the grey hour, Downside bids into the 1.1700-1.1680  area with weak stops on a move through  and then congestive bids into the 1.1650 area and continuing through to the 1.1600 where better bids are likely to be seen with weak stops through the level opening a deeper move as a possibility.  Topside offers into the 1.1880-1.1900 area light with possible weak stops on a push above the 1.1920 area likely to be a little stronger after yesterday’s failure sellers likely to fade the move with increasing stronger offers again appearing on any push at the 1.1940-60 area and the congestion then increasing on any move through to the 1.2000 area.

 

 

Overnight News

 

EUR/CNY:

Italy blocked Chinese semiconductor bid, Draghi said – BBG

USD/CNY:

US Senate unveils strategy to counter China with new bill – BBG

US adds seven Chinese supercomputing firms to export ban list – BBG

AUD:

Blood clots spark overhaul of AstraZeneca vaccine rollout – AFR

Australia secures additional 20m Pfizer vaccine doses – BBG

Will have 40m Pfizer vaccines in 2021 – BBG

Additional Pfizer doses to be available in 4q – BBG

USD:

Biden, Yellen and the war on leprechauns – NYT (2019 3.4% lowest on record)

 

Today’s Data

AUD       RBA Financial stability review

CNY       CPI MoM (MAR) A -0.5% | C -0.4% | P 0.6%

CNY       CPI YoY (MAR) A 0.4% | C 0.3% | P -0.2%

CNY       PPI YoY (MAR) A 4.4% | C 3.5% | P 1.7%

0645      CHF        Unemployment Rate n.s.a. (MAR) A | C 3.6% | P 3.6%

0645      CHF        Unemployment Rate s.a. (MAR) A | C 3.6% | P 3.6%
0700      EUR       German Industrial Production MoM (FEB) A | C 1.5% | P -2.5%

0700      EUR       German Trade Balance (FEB) A | C 20.0b | P 22.2b

0830      GBP        Halifax House Price Index YoY A | P 5.2%

0830      GBP        Halifax House Price Index MoM (MAR) A | P -0.1%

1330      USD       Core PPI MoM (MAR) A | C 0.2% | P 0.2%

1330      USD       PPI MoM (MAR) A | C 0.5% | P 0.5%

1330      CAD       Employment Change (MAR) A | C 100.0k | P 259.2k

1330      CAD       Unemployment Rate (MAR) A | C 8.0% | P 8.2%

1700      USD       WASDE Report

1800      USD       US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count A | P 430

 

Harry Hindsight

 

  • GBP: A fairly tight range through into the Tokyo session before pushing slowly through in a long run from the 1.3735 low opening level to test into the grey hour pushing the 1.3780 area, the move through to the London session saw the market dropping quickly back into early London testing through to the 1.3720 area for the range of the day, a steady rise through to the 1.3770 level for the NYK session with the market drifted back to the 1.3730 levels for the close.
  • JPY: Opening around the 109.85 areas and the move into the Tokyo session touching just above the 109.90 level for the high of the day before steadily drifting through into the London session testing and holding the 109.45 area, midmorning saw the market breaking lower again and the test of the 109.0 level into the NYK opening saw the market eventually moving off the low and steadily rising through to the 109.25 levels for the close.
  • AUD: A quiet range through into the Tokyo session around the 0.7610 level with a minor dip towards the 0.7600 level before starting a steady rise through to the grey hour pushing towards the 0.7650 area before dipping back from the level through into the London session testing the 0.7625 area and again slowly rising to test the same high holding in the area through to the end of the London session before trading through to the 0.7660 level drifting a little to the close.
  • EUR: Quiet range through the Asian session, opening around the 1.1870 level and dipping in Tokyo through to the 1.1860 level before slowly rising into the 1.1880 area for the move into the grey hour, London were sellers from just above the 1.1890 level to again test towards of the 1.1860 level and the move into the NYK session saw repeated spirts of buying forcing the market testing through to the 1.1925 area peaking just above before drifting to the mid-teens and the close.

 

Premier League Results

GBP        RICS House Price Balance (MAR) A 59% | C 55% | P 52% | R 54%

JPY         Adjusted Current Account A 1.79t | P 1.50t

JPY         Current Account n.s.a. (FEB) A 2.917t | C 1.966t | 0.647t

NZD       ANZ Business Confidence (P) A -8.4 | P -4.1

EUR       German Factory Orders MoM (FEB) A 1.2% | C 1.2% | P 1.4% | R 0.8%

EUR       HIS Markit Construction PMI (MAR) A 47.5 | P 41.0

GBP        Construction PMI (MAR) A 61.7 | C 54.6 | P 53.3

EUR       ECB Monetary Policy Statement

USD       Initial Jobless Claims A 744k | C 680k | P 719k | R 728k

USD       FED Chair Powell Speaks

 

Best Regards

Andy

 

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LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   Andy Harrison  

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information ("information") contained on this Blog, constitutes marketing communication and it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the information contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. LMAX Group has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

LMAX Group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the produced information was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX Group does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX Group or any other FX and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.