Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

 

Good Morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 109.663 | EURUSD 1.19011 | AUDUSD 0.76196 | NZDUSD 0.70327 | USDCAD 1.25299 | USDCHF 0.92446 | GBPUSD 1.37044 |

 

LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT

Highs | Lows   

EURUSD               1.19048 | 1.18855

USDJPY                109.788 | 109.474

GBPUSD              1.37136 | 1.36814

USDCHF              0.92619 | 0.92379

AUDUSD              0.76280 | 0.75962

NZDUSD              0.70428 | 0.70143

USDCAD              1.25578 | 1.25273

EURCHF               1.10140 | 1.10041

EURGBP              0.86887 | 0.86709

EURJPY                130.607 | 130.146

 

For Today

 

  • GBP: Opening quietly and struggling for liquidity around the 1.3705-10 area to rise to the high around the 1.3715 level for the move into Tokyo before drifting through to the 1.3680 areas for the move into the grey hour rising a little, topside offers light through the 1.3750 area and then increasing on a move through to the 1.3800 area, weak stops on a move through the level with increasing offers through to the 1.3850 level building towards the 1.3900 area before stronger stops on a move through, downside bids light into the 1.3650 area and then increasing on a move to the 1.3600 area with stronger stops on a dip through but again strong congestion on a move to the 1.3550 level and increasing into the 1.3500 area.
  • JPY: A quiet rise from the opening around the 109.70 level and testing towards the 109.80 level for the high before dropping quickly through to the 109.50 area to range quietly for an hour or so before slowly rising to the 109.60 level for the move into the grey hour, Topside light congestion through to the 110.80 level before weak stops then weakness through to the stronger offers around the 111.80 area matching the highs from the beginning of the previous two years at the same period of time, a break of the 112.30 area is likely to see strong stops appearing and the market opening for further push beyond the last couple of years highs. Before running through to the 112.50 area and another set of stronger offers appearing continuing through to the 112.80 level and likely continue seeing strong offers, downside bids light through to the 109.00 area, with weak stops through the 108.80 area likely to run into stronger bids through the 108.40-60 area and then into the 108.20-107.80 before stronger stops appear.
  • AUD: Moving from the 0.7620 area to test towards the 0.7628 high before drifting off through the 0.7595 area for the low before recovering to just above the 76 cents level for the move into the grey hour, light offers through the 0.7700 area with weak stops through the level and the market opening to the 78 cents area before stronger offers through to the 0.7840-60 area and then increasing offers onwards through 0.7900, with the offers likely to continue through to the 0.7950 area and likely increasing resistance through to the 0.8000 levels, downside bids into the 76 cents level with strong bids likely through to the 0.7580 area, weak stops are likely to be few and far between with stronger bids likely into the 0.7550 level and likely stronger congestion through to the 0.7500 area.
  • EUR: Wide opening saw the market ranging around the 1.1900 level through into the Tokyo session pushing lower through to the 1.1885 area before holding quietly in a mooted session through to the grey hour, Topside offers into the 1.1920 level again and possible weak stops on a move through to the 1.1930 area and the market then likely to see increasing offers through the 1.1940-60 area and then the 1.1980-1.2000 level with strong stops likely on a move through the 1.2020-30 area. Opening only a limited move higher, downside bids light through to the 1.1820 area with weak stops on a move through to the 1.1780 level with limited bids through to the 1.1700 area and only light congestion through the 1.1750 level.

 

Overnight News

CHF/GBP:

Swiss watchdog asked Credit Suisse on Greensill risks – RTRs

AUD:

Australia abandons Covid 19 vaccination targets after new advice on AstraZenica – RTRs

USD:

Fed’s Powell: US Economy at an inflection point – RTRs

GBP:

English shops and pub gardens reopen in major step to freedom – AFR

 

Today’s Data

1000      EUR       Retail Sales MoM (FEB) A | C 1.5% | P -5.9%

Tentaive CNY     New Loans A | P 1,360.0b

0845      EUR       ECB’s Panetta Speaks

1530      CAD       BoC Business Outlook Survey

1800      USD       FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks

1900      USD       Federal Budget Balance (MAR) A | C -265.0b | P -311.0b

2300      NZD       NZIER Business Confidence (Q1) A | P -6%

 

Harry Hindsight

 

  • GBP: Drifting from the opening to test towards the 1.3720 level before steadily rising through to the high of the day pushing above the 1.3750 into early Tokyo, a slow drift back to the 1.3735 area and holding through to just before the grey hour with a steady selloff through to the low of the day testing the 1.3670 area before slowly recovering through to the London session pushing above the 1.3700 area and then forming a base along the level, the market tested into the NYK session pushing through towards the 1.3745 area before drifting quietly to the close.
  • JPY: Opening close to the lows rising into the Tokyo session pushing the 109.40 level and slowly drifting through to the 109.22 low opening again, the move through midsession and through into the London session saw a steady rise through to the 109.70 level pausing for the move into the NYK session and a move through to just below the 110.00 level before quickly dipping through to the 109.80 level and a long fun through to the close holding just above the level.
  • AUD: The move through to the early Tokyo session testing a little above the 0.7660 area before dropping quickly through to the 0.7640 area holding for a short period through the midsession period before continuing the move through to the grey hour and testing the 0.7590 area before bouncing and trading through into the London session testing the 0.7620 area, a little bit of a boost saw the Oz trading above the 0.7640 area and the move into the NYK session sees the little bit of a rise removed and the market bouncing off the 0.7610 area and to finish in a long run to the close around the 0.7625 area.
  • EUR: As with some of the other pairs early highs into Tokyo saw the market drifting from the 1.1920 area and a steady run through to the grey hour testing through the 1.1900 level, the move through the London session saw the market ranging around the 1.1890 area and the move into the NYK session dropping quickly from the 1.1900 area to test the low just below the 1.1870 bouncing and then struggling through to the 1.1910 level from the London close and then a drift to the close around the figure level again.

 

Premier Results

AUD       RBA Financial stability review

CNY       CPI MoM (MAR) A -0.5% | C -0.4% | P 0.6%

CNY       CPI YoY (MAR) A 0.4% | C 0.3% | P -0.2%

CNY       PPI YoY (MAR) A 4.4% | C 3.5% | P 1.7%

CHF        Unemployment Rate n.s.a. (MAR) A 3.4% | C 3.6% | P 3.6%

CHF        Unemployment Rate s.a. (MAR) A 3.3% | C 3.6% | P 3.6%
EUR       German Industrial Production MoM (FEB) A -1.6% | C 1.5% | P -2.5%

EUR       German Trade Balance (FEB) A 19.1b | C 20.0b | P 22.2b | R 21.2b

GBP        Halifax House Price Index YoY A 6.5% | P 5.2%

GBP        Halifax House Price Index MoM (MAR) A 1.1% | P -0.1% | R 0.0%

USD       Core PPI MoM (MAR) A 0.7% | C 0.2% | P 0.2%

USD       PPI MoM (MAR) A 1.0% | C 0.5% | P 0.5%

CAD       Employment Change (MAR) A 303.1k | C 100.0k | P 259.2k

CAD       Unemployment Rate (MAR) A 7.5% | C 8.0% | P 8.2%

USD       WASDE Report

USD       US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count A 432 | P 430

 

Best Regards

Andy

 

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this Blog, whether by LMAX, its employees, partners or contributors, does not constitute investment advice nor has it been prepared in accordance with legal requirements  designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the material contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Whilst information provided on this Blog may help with your investment research you must consider carefully whether you should make (or refrain from making) investment or other decisions based on what you see without doing further research on the investments you are interested in. Participating in this Blog cannot be a substitute for obtaining advice from an appropriate expert independent adviser who takes into account your circumstances and specific investment needs in selected investments that are appropriate for you. LMAX has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

 

LMAX will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the material produced in this Blog was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources.

Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk.

 

If you currently hold an account with LMAX for the purposes of trading FX and CFD’s, you are encouraged to use a different Username and Password to access the Blog or any other online systems. The Blog is a place to learn, discuss and share information and ideas with Blog followers. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX or any other FX, Spread Betting and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.

LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   Andy Harrison  

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information ("information") contained on this Blog, constitutes marketing communication and it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the information contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. LMAX Group has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

LMAX Group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the produced information was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX Group does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX Group or any other FX and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.