Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 108.918 | EURUSD 1.21202 | AUDUSD 0.77654 | NZDUSD 0.72483 | USDCAD 1.2810 | USDCHF 0.90896 | GBPUSD 1.39416 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.21265 | 1.21122
USDJPY 109.056 | 108.717
GBPUSD 1.39582 | 1.3932
USDCHF 0.90911 | 0.90836
AUDUSD 0.77838 | 0.77626
NZDUSD 0.72584 | 0.72401
USDCAD 1.22864 | 1.22687
EURCHF 1.10220 | 1.10107
EURGBP 0.87002 | 0.86856
EURJPY 132.188 | 131.791
For Today
- GBP: A Friday market with a light rise towards the 1.3960 level before drifting back into the 1.3945-50 area for the move into the grey hour, Topside offers into the 1.4000 area and likely weak stops on a push through the 1.4020 level however, light congestion around the sentimental levels 1.4050, 1.4100 area likely to be a little stronger with long time trend line in the area then opening to weak sentimental to the 1.4200 strong offers with break out stops likely through the 1.4250 area. Downside bids light but building into the 1.3900 level with weak stops beginning to fill in below the level, congestion then through to the 1.3840-60 level likely to slow a decent before stronger bids start to appear into the 1.3800 areas.
- JPY: Opening around the 108.90 area saw the market slowly push to just above the 109.05 area in early Tokyo before dropping quickly back to push through to the 108.70 area in a rather quiet session, the market then stabilized around the 108.80 for the grey hour, Downside bids into the 107.80 however, a break through the level is likely to see weak stops and breakout stops appearing and the market free to quickly test 107.50 and an old trendline then nothing until closer to the 107.00 area where stronger bids start to appear but the downside opening to Feb levels, Topside offers appearing through the 109.00 level light offers until the 109.40 area is likely to see strong congestion increasing through to the 110.00 level before stronger stops are likely to appear.
- AUD: A slow rise from the low opening around the 0.7765 area and pushed through to the 0.7785 area for the early Tokyo session as AUDJPY buying moved through the fix, the market slowly drifted to the 0.7770 level before heading to the grey hour again testing the highs, Topside offers continue through the 0.7800 area with a break through the 0.7820 area likely to see weak stops and a test towards the sentimental 0.7850 area however, while there may be some offers in the area the market Looks to be fairly open through to the 79 cents level and ultimately ranges from the end of Feb, downside bids light through the 0.7700 level with weak stops likely on a move through the 0.7680 before stronger bids around the 0.7650 area and continuing through to the 0.7600 likely increasing in size, any further moves are likely to see strong support into the 0.7550 to calm the situation,
- EUR: A very quiet session with the market holding the 1.2120-25 through early trading before moving into the midsession slipping through to the 1.2115 area for the move into the grey hour, Topside congestion through to the 1.2160 level from the highs and then while there maybe some weak stops just beyond stronger offers are likely through the level to the 1.2200 area with weak stops again appearing but very limited and the 1.2250 again seeing the stronger offers through to the 1.2300 level with the market then having the ability to test this year’s highs, downside bids light through to the 1.2000 area and then weak stops on a move through the 1.1920 level opening the market to the 1.1850 area where stronger congestion appears.
Overnight News
CNY:
Aluminium, Cement makers are under pressure to help China achieve carbon emission goals – SMP
USD:
Manchin cautions Biden’s trillion-dollar push to expand government – AXS
Today’s Data
JPY Jobs/applications ratio (MAR) A 1.10 | C 1.09 | P 1.09
JPY Tokyo Core CPI YoY (APR) A -0.2% | C -0.2% | P -0.1%
JPY CPI Tokyo Ex-Food and Energy (MAR) (P) A -0.4% | P 0.2%
JPY Industrial Production MoM (MAR) (P) A 2.2% | C -2.0% | P -1.3%
CNY Chinese Composite PMI (APR) A 53.8 | P 55.3
CNY Manufacturing PMI (APR) A 51.1 | C 51.7 | P 51.9
CNY Non-Manufacturing PMI (APR) A 54.9 | P 56.3
AUD PPI YoY (Q1) A 0.2% | P -0.1%
AUD PPI QoQ (Q1) A 0.4% | P 0.5%
AUD Private Sector Credit MoM (MAR) A | P 0.2%
CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI (APR) A 51.9 | C 50.8 | P 50.6
0700 GBP Nationwide HPI YoY (APR) A | C 5.0% | P 5.7%
0700 GBP Nationwide HPI MoM (APR) A 0.5% | P -0.2%
0730 CHF Retail Sales YoY (MAR) A | P -6.3%
0800 CHF KOF Leading Indications (APR) A | C 119.5 | P 117.8
0800 EUR Spanish GDP QoQ (Q1) (P) A | C -0.5% | P 16.4%
0900 CHF SNB Board Member Jordan Speaks
0900 EUR German GDP YoY (Q1) (P) A | C -3.6% | P -2.7%
0900 EUR German GDP QoQ (Q1) (P) A | C -1.5% | P 0.3%
1000 EUR CPI YoY (APR) (P) A | C 1.6% | P 1.3%
1000 EUR GDP YoY (P) A | P -4.9%
1000 EUR Unemployment Rate (MAR) A | C 8.3% | P 8.3%
1330 USD Core PCE Price Index YoY (MAR) A | C 1.8% | P 1.4%
1330 USD Core PCE Price Index MoM (MAR) A | C 0.3% | P 0.1%
1330 USD Employment Cost Index QoQ (Q1) A | C 0.7% | P 0.7%
1330 USD PCE Price Index YoY (MAR) A | P 1.6
1330 USD PCE Price Index MoM (MAR) A | P 0.2%
1330 USD Personal Spending MoM (MAR) A | C 4.1% | P -1.0%
1330 CAD GDP MoM (FEB) A | C 0.5% | P 0.7%
1330 CAD RMPI MoM (MAR) A | P 6.6%
1445 USD Chicago PMI (APR) A | C 65.3 | P 66.3
1500 USD Michigan Consumer Expectations (APR) A | P 79.7
1500 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment (APR) A | C 87.4 | P 86.5
1800 USD US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count A | P 439
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: After a short drift through to the 1.3935 level the market moved into the Tokyo session rising through to the 1.3940 area then started a quiet rise through to the 1.3975 level to make the highs just beyond, a drift from that point to the opening period and the move through into the London session saw the market rising quietly through to the 1.3970, London were steady sellers through to the opening levels again and after a limited rise pushed to the lows of the day testing towards the 1.3930 and then a long run to the close with NYK unable to challenge either end of the range and holding the 1.3940 to the close.
- JPY: Early selling on the move into the Tokyo session falling from the opening 108.60, after a brief period holding the 108.45 area, slow recovery to the opening levels and then holding through to the grey hour before starting a tight channelled push through to the 109.00 into early morning in London holding and bouncing around the level before running quickly through to the highs once the NYK session opened testing lightly above the 109.20 before dropping steadily back to the 108.90 area for the run to the close ranging around the level.
- AUD: Light range around the 0.7790 opening steadily, the Tokyo session pushed the market through to the 0.7820 area and once it touched the high of the day it fell back a little quicker to range around the 0.7790 through into the London session, a little selloff in early morning saw the market make a dip to the 0.7775 area only to recover to the 0.7800 area again for the move into the NYK session, stronger sellers saw the market holding the 0.7750 and a slow recovery from the London Close to the 0.7770 area.
- EUR: Rising steadily from the opening to push from the 1.2125 level and testing slowly to the 1.2150, the high’s made the market drifted through to just above the opening level for the move into the grey hour, slow drift again into the London opening holding the 1.2120 area and a tight range through to midday in London before rising again this time only to the 1.2130 level and the NYK session slowly sold through to the 1.2100 area with a long quiet run to the close holding the 1.2120 area.
Premier Results
NZD Trade Balance MoM (MAR) A 33m | P 181m | R 201m
NZD Trade Balance YoY (MAR) A 1,690m | P 2,360m
JPY Holiday Japan – Showa Day
NZD ANZ Business Confidence (APR) A -2.0 | P -4.1
EUR Spanish CPI YoY (APR) (P) A 2.2% | C 1.3% | P 1.3%
EUR Spanish HICP YoY (APR) A 1.9% | C 1.8% | P 1.2%
EUR German Unemployment Change (APR) A 9k | C -10k | P -8k
EUR German Unemployment Rate (APR) A 6.0% | C 6.0% | P 6.0%
EUR German CPI MoM (APR) (P) A 0.7% | C 0.5% | P 0.5%
USD GDP QoQ (Q1) (P) A 6.4% | C 6.1% | P 4.3%
USD GDP Price Index QoQ (Q1) A 4.1% | C 2.5% | P 1.9%
USD Initial Jobless Claims A 553k | C 549k | P 547k | R 566k
USD Pending Home Sales MoM (MAR) A 1.9% | C 5.0% | P -10.6% | R -11.5%
USD FOMC Member Quaries Speaks
USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
Best Regards
Andy
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