Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 109.347 | EURUSD 1.21456 | AUDUSD 0.77824 | NZDUSD 0.72512 | USDCAD 1.21029 | USDCHF 0.90133 | GBPUSD 1.40995 |

 

LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT

Highs | Lows   

EURUSD               1.21513 | 1.21292

USDJPY                109.502 | 109.178

GBPUSD              1.41097 | 1.40783

USDCHF              0.90285 | 0.90147

AUDUSD              0.77836 | 0.77479

NZDUSD              0.72582 | 0.72142

USDCAD              1.21355 | 1.21071

EURCHF               1.09540 | 1.09455

EURGBP              0.86198 | 0.86024

EURJPY                132.949 | 132.564

 

For Today

 

  • GBP: Opening unchanged the market ranged around the 1.4100 level through into the Tokyo session dipping for the Fix through to the 1.4090 level unable to push beyond the 1.4105 area and after and hour or so there dipped through to the 1.4080 area for the low of the session before returning to the 1.4090 level for the run to the grey hour, downside bids through the 1.4000 level quickly run into weak stops and congestive bids competing through to the 1.3950 area and increasing bids from there to the 1.3900 level and stops then beyond the area opening a deeper move, topside offers through to the 1.4150 level and increasing into the 1.4200 level with weak stops likely on a push through Feb’s highs around the 1.4220 area. Opening the market to the next leg through to the 1.4400 area.
  • JPY: Opening a touch lower and moving off the 109.25 area to push through to the Friday close around the 109.35 area and a slow push through into the Tokyo session and quickly testing the 109.50 for the Fix before drifting back again to hold the 109.35 level again with a minor test to the lows again to recover and move into the grey hour unchanged, Downside bids into the 107.80 however, a break through the level is likely to see weak stops and breakout stops appearing and the market free to quickly test 107.50 and an old trendline then nothing until closer to the 107.00 area where stronger bids start to appear but the downside opening to Feb levels, topside offers through to the 110.00 level with light congestion through the figure level and weak stops possibly limited and stronger offers likely increasing on a move higher towards the 111.00.
  • AUD: Filling in the small gap from the 0.7770 area to push back above the 0.7780 area and quiet move into the Tokyo session, Fix supply saw the market testing back to the 0.7760 area and then a slow drift through the bulk of the session testing through into the 0.7750 area for the grey hour, Topside offers light through to the 0.7880 area and likely to be strong offers continuing through to the 0.7920 area before weak stops appear and the market then running into further resistance once it starts projecting through the 0.7960 area with increasing offers the closer to the significant sentimental levels into 80 cents, downside bids into the 0.7700 area and weak stops on an extension through the 0.7680 area but quickly running into supportive bids into the 0.7650 area and continuing through to 0.7600 level with some possibly decent bids mixed with weak stops.
  • EUR: Euro’s tested steadily higher through into the Tokyo session push the 1.2150 area before drifting off through the fix and holding the low area range for a long run to the grey hour around the 1.2130 area. Topside offers through the 1.2160 area and increasing into the 1.2200 level with weak stops likely to be absent and congestion through to the 1.2220 level before hopping any possibility of testing the highs of the year through 1.2300  and stronger stops still likely to slow any further movement. Downside bids light through to the 1.2020 area and then stronger bids starting to form in the area, weak stops on a move through the 1.1980 area opening a chance of a quick break back to the 1.1900 level before stronger bids appear.

 

Overnight News

 

ILS:

#Netanyahu says there is no clear end in sight – NYT

CNY/LME:

Metal rally falters with China cracking down on steel sector – BBG

NZD:

ANZ bank expects RBNZ to start raising rates from August 2022 – BBG

 

Today’s Data

CNY       Fixed Asset Investment YoY (APR) A 19.9% | C 19.0% | P 25.6%

CNY       Industrial Production YoY (APR) A 9.8% | C 9.8% | P 14.1%

CNY       Chinese Industrial Production YTD YoY (APR) A 20.3% | P 24.5%

CNY       NBS Press Conference

0730      CHF        PPI MoM (APR) A | P 0.6%

1315      CAD       Housing Starts (APR) A | C 292.5k | P 335.2k

1330      USD       NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (MAY) A | C 23.90 | P 26.30

1505      USD       FOMC Member Clarida Speaks

1515      GBP        MPC Member Tenreyro Speaks

1525      USD       FOMC Member Bostic Speaks

1525      USD       FOMC Member Clarida Speaks

1730      GBP        BoE MPC Member Haldane Speaks

2100      USD       TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (MAR) A | P 4.2b

 

Harry Hindsight

 

  • GBP: Opening quietly around the 1.4050 level and holding through into the Tokyo session in a tight range before slipping through to just below the 1.4040 area and posting a low just above the 1.4035 area repeating the lows through to the grey hour, London saw the market rising to push towards the 1.4080 area ranging through early morning and then eventually pushing gradually through into the NYK session testing above the 1.4110 for the high of the day before dipping a little to range in the 1.4090-1.4100 level to the close.
  • JPY: Early USD buying through the Tokyo session with the market lifting from the 109.45 area to push through to test the 109.65 area for the highs of the day holding briefly before drifting through to the grey hour falling back to the 109.50 area and just above the opening, grey hour selling saw the market back through the opening level and testing quickly to the 109.35 level before holding for a short period before running again into the London session fully, the market then held around the 109.35 level through the rest of the day with the market dipping to its lows just through the 109.20 level before returning to the 109.35 area range to the close.
  • AUD: After early weakness into the Tokyo session slipping from the opening around the 0.7730 area to test through to the 0.7715 area for the low of the day, the market steadily recovered to range around the 0.7725 area through into the London session where early buyers took the market through into the 0.7745 area for a few hours before heading to the NYK session pushing through the 0.7750 level and grinding through to the 0.7780 area and a few hours holding in the area before testing to the 0.7785 area for the high of the day and drifting a little for the close.
  • EUR: Into the Tokyo session recovering from the low of the day around the 1.2070 area to push back through the 1.2080 opening level for the move into the grey hour testing to the 1.2110 level and following through into the London opening testing the 1.2130 level before drifting a little in early morning, the move through the London session morning period and into NYK saw the market rising again to gradually grind through to the 1.2150 area before holding in the 1.2140 area to the close in a long quiet run.

 

Premier Results

NZD       Business NZ PMI (APR) A 58.4 | P 63.6

EUR       Spanish CPI YoY (APR) A 2.2% | C 2.2% | P 1.3%

EUR       Spanish HICP YoY (APR) A 2.0% | C 1.9% | P 1.2%

EUR       ECB Monetary Policy Statement

USD       Core Retail Sales MoM (APR) A -0.8% | C 0.7% | P 8.4% | R 9.0%

USD       Export Price Index MoM (APR) A 0.8% | C 0.6% | P 2.1% | R 2.4%

USD       Import Price Index MoM (APR) A 0.7% | C 0.6% | P 1.2% | R 1.4%

USD       Retail Sales MoM (APR) A 0.0% | C 1.0% | P 9.7% | R 10.7%

CAD       Manufacturing Sales MoM (MAR) A 3.5% | C 3.5% | P -1.6%

CAD       Wholesale Sales MoM (MAR) A 2.8% | C 1.0% | P -0.7% | R -0.9%

USD       Industrial Production YoY (APR) A 0.7% | P 1.0% | R 2.4%

USD       Industrial Production MoM (APR) A 16.49% | C 1.0% | P 1.02% | R 1.04%

USD       Business Inventories MoM (MAR) A 0.3% | C 0.3% | P 0.5% | R 0.6%

USD       Michigan Consumer Expectations (MAY) (P) A 77.6 | C 85.0 | P 82.7

USD       Michigan Consumer Sentiment (MAY) (P) A 82.8 | C 90.4 | P 88.3

USD       Retail Inventories Ex Auto (MAR) A 0.6% | P 0.6%

USD       US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count A 453 | P 440 | R 448

 

Best Regards

Andy

 

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LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   Andy Harrison  

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information ("information") contained on this Blog, constitutes marketing communication and it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the information contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. LMAX Group has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

LMAX Group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the produced information was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX Group does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX Group or any other FX and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.