Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 109.239 | EURUSD 1.21531 | AUDUSD 0.77669 | NZDUSD 0.72141 | USDCAD 1.20684 | USDCHF 0.90322 | GBPUSD 1.41387 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.21690 | 1.21466
USDJPY 109.285 | 109.105
GBPUSD 1.41785 | 1.41296
USDCHF 0.90349 | 0.90167
AUDUSD 0.77972 | 0.77634
NZDUSD 0.72419 | 0.72044
USDCAD 1.20715 | 1.20295
EURCHF 1.09829 | 1.09713
EURGBP 0.86026 | 0.85824
EURJPY 132.882 | 132.704
For Today
- GBP: A long steady rise from the opening around the 1.4140 area to slow push through to the 1.4180 area before stalling and holding quietly for the move through into the grey hour, Topside offer through the 1.4200 level with weak stops likely to open a test through to the 1.4250 before stronger offers start to appear through to the 1.4300 level and a long term trend line likely to have attracted option barriers, a break here does however likely see stronger stops appearing and the market opening to a larger move towards the 1.47-1.48 area. Downside bids light into the 1.4100 with weak stops on a move through the level to test quickly through weak sentimental 1.4050 and stronger bids then appearing for any test of the 1.4000 level.
- JPY: A quiet range around the opening 109.20 level with early Tokyo taking the market towards the 109.30 area before quickly dipping back to test the downside and the 109.10 level to define a very quiet range, Downside light through the 109.00 level with weak stops below the 108.80 and opening the market to a new test of the 108.00 level, stronger bids into the 107.80 however, a break through the level is likely to see weak stops and breakout stops appearing and the market free to quickly test 107.50 and an old trendline then nothing until closer to the 107.00 area where stronger bids start to appear but the downside opening to Feb levels, topside offers through to the 110.00 level with light congestion through the figure level and weak stops possibly limited and stronger offers likely increasing on a move higher towards the 111.00.
- AUD: Ver quiet opening and then steadily rising once the market had heard what the RBA had to say, which was very little different to any one of several previous minutes, the market slowly pushed through towards the 78 cents level not quiet getting there but holding above the 0.7790 area through to the grey hour, Downside bids light through the 0.7750 area and stronger bids likely continue through to the 0.7700 area before weak stops appear below the 0.7680 and a stronger 0.7650 area then holds the downside, topside offers into the 0.7800 area with weak stops through the 0.7820 before opening for a new run higher and strong offers likely through the 0.7840-60 area to build for the 79 cent level.
- EUR: A light rise from the 1.2150 area to push towards the 1.2170 area but never quiet getting there and holding quietly around the 1.2165 area for the move to the grey hour, Topside offers through the 1.2160 area and increasing into the 1.2200 level with weak stops likely to be absent and congestion through to the 1.2220 level before hopping any possibility of testing the highs of the year through 1.2300 and stronger stops still likely to slow any further movement. Downside bids light through to the 1.2020 area and then stronger bids starting to form in the area, weak stops on a move through the 1.1980 area opening a chance of a quick break back to the 1.1900 level before stronger bids appear.
Overnight News A
AUD:
RBA Reaching full employment high priority for RBA policy
RBA: Rate Rise conditions unlikely met until 2024 at earliest
RBA: Future decisions will be based on date market conditions
PM Morrison stands firm on border closure due to Covid 19 as industries plea for reopening – RTRs
GBP:
UK ministers considering contingency plans for local lockdowns – Times
Today’s Data
JPY GDP QoQ (Q1) (P) A -1.3% | C -1.2% | P 2.8%
JPY GDP YoY (Q1) (P) A -5.1% | C -4.6% | P 11.7% | R 11.6%
AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
0530 JPY Tertiary Industry Activity Index MoM A | P 0.3%
0700 GBP Average Earnings Index + Bonus A | C 4.5% | P 4.5%
0700 GBP Claimant Count Change (APR) A | P 10.1k
0700 GBP Employment Change 3m/3m MoM (MAR) A | C 50k | P -73k
0700 GBP Unemployment Rate (MAR) A | C 4.9% | P 4.9%
1000 EUR GDP YoY (Q1) (P) A | C -1.8% | P -1.8%
1000 EUR GDP QoQ (Q1) (P) A | C -0.6% | P -0.6%
1000 EUR Trade Balance (MAR) A | P 17.7b
1330 USD Building Permits MoM (APR) A | P 2.3%
1330 USD Building Permits (APR) A | C 1.770m | P 1.759m
1330 USD Housing Starts MoM (APR) A | P 19.4%
1330 USD Housing Starts (APR) A | C 1.71m | P 1.739m
1605 CHF SNB Board Member Jordan Speaks
1730 USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
2130 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock A | P -2.533m
2345 NZD PPI Input QoQ (Q1) A | P 0.6%
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: A reasonably quiet range through into the NYK session before breaking higher, opening around the 1.4100 level the market spent the early part of the session holding tightly before dipping through to the 1.4085 area into Tokyo and remaining in that area with minor attempts at the 1.4080 level into the grey hour, a move to test the 1.4120 into the London opening saw the market quickly back to the lows but never really stepping away from the 1.4100 level for too long, the addition of the NYK market lifted the market from the lows just below the 1.4080 area to slowly grind through to the 1.4145 area for a quiet run to the close.
- JPY: A little off the Friday close to push off the 109.28 area to push quickly through to the 109.40 level for the move into Tokyo where fix demand saw the USD push through to the 109.50 before dipping back and ranging around the Friday closing levels through into the grey hour, steady selling from early London saw the market pushing into the 109.15 area and once the full market entered the fray the market was trading through to just below the 109.10 level, this formed the base for the day and the market went out in a long run ranging around the 109.20 level in an unexciting day for USDJPY.
- AUD: A game of two halves so they say with the Asian session o0pening a little lower and after a brief reprise to fill the gap dipping into the Tokyo fix through to the 0.7750 level from that 0.7785 early highs, the move through into the London session saw the market basing around the 0.7750 level and only breaking through for the opening in NYK to test the 0.7730 level and a gradual grind through to the 0.7770 and a long run to the close in a narrow range around that level.
- EUR: Opening unchanged and running higher from the 1.2140 level the market moved into the Tokyo session pushing through the 1.2150 for the early highs, Tokyo fix saw USD buying and the Euro dropping back to the 1.2130 area and a slow range through to the grey hour testing through the level to make the lows around the 1.2125 area and London slowly buying the market through to the 1.2150 area initially and then grinding through the morning to test towards the 1.2170 level before dipping for the NYK opening and a slow steady push through to the 1.2160 from the opening around the 1.2140 level.
Premier Results
CNY Fixed Asset Investment YoY (APR) A 19.9% | C 19.0% | P 25.6%
CNY Industrial Production YoY (APR) A 9.8% | C 9.8% | P 14.1%
CNY Chinese Industrial Production YTD YoY (APR) A 20.3% | P 24.5%
CNY NBS Press Conference
CHF PPI MoM (APR) A 0.7% | P 0.6%
CAD Housing Starts (APR) A 268.6k | C 292.5k | P 335.2k | R 334.8k
USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (MAY) A 24.30 | C 23.90 | P 26.30
CAD Foreign securities Purchases (MAR) A 3.25b | P 8.56b
USD FOMC Member Clarida Speaks
GBP MPC Member Tenreyro Speaks
USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
USD FOMC Member Clarida Speaks
GBP BoE MPC Member Haldane Speaks
USD TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (MAR) A 262.2b | P 4.2b | R 4.3b
Best Regards
Andy
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this Blog, whether by LMAX, its employees, partners or contributors, does not constitute investment advice nor has it been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the material contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Whilst information provided on this Blog may help with your investment research you must consider carefully whether you should make (or refrain from making) investment or other decisions based on what you see without doing further research on the investments you are interested in. Participating in this Blog cannot be a substitute for obtaining advice from an appropriate expert independent adviser who takes into account your circumstances and specific investment needs in selected investments that are appropriate for you. LMAX has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.
LMAX will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the material produced in this Blog was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources.
Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk.
If you currently hold an account with LMAX for the purposes of trading FX and CFD’s, you are encouraged to use a different Username and Password to access the Blog or any other online systems. The Blog is a place to learn, discuss and share information and ideas with Blog followers. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX or any other FX, Spread Betting and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.