Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 109.581 | EURUSD 1.22261 | AUDUSD 0.77336 | NZDUSD 0.7279 | USDCAD 1.20653 | USDCHF 0.89898 | GBPUSD 1.42122 |

 

LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT

Highs | Lows   

EURUSD               1.22365 | 1.22234

USDJPY                109.592 | 109.333

GBPUSD              1.42514 | 1.42019

USDCHF              0.89976 | 0.8980

AUDUSD              0.77684 | 0.77312

NZDUSD              0.72882 | 0.72647

USDCAD              1.20659 | 1.20467

EURCHF               1.09975 | 1.0984

EURGBP              0.86052 | 0.85846

EURJPY                133.997 | 133.745

 

For Today

 

  • GBP: Opening around the 1.4205 level and steadily rising through into the Tokyo session pushing for the 1.4250 area before starting a slow drift through to the RBA announcement and a limited dip for the grey hour to the 1.4230 level, Topside offers light through the 1.4250 area with some congestion increasing on any move to the 1.4300 and stronger offers in the area, a break above the 1.4310 area will likely see weak stops and breakout stops coinciding and the topside open to a quick squeeze through the 1.4350 level and an attempt on the possibly weak 1.4400 area and stronger stops again through the level. Downside bids light through the 1.4200 level with weak stops likely on a dip through the level and weak bids through to the 1.4150 and limited sentimental bids increasing then on any approach of the 1.4100 level.
  • JPY: A light drift through the session from a high opening around the 109.60 level to slowly head into the Tokyo session holding the 109.50 level for the fix and then dipping into the low 109.40’s and following through to the 109.33 for the low before slowly recovering through to the grey hour to the 109.50 area, Downside light through the 108.50 before opening the market to a new test of the 108.00 level, stronger bids into the 107.80 however, a break through the level is likely to see weak stops and breakout stops appearing and the market free to quickly test 107.50 and an old trendline then nothing until closer to the 107.00 area where stronger bids start to appear but the downside opening to Feb levels, topside offers through to the 110.00 level with light congestion through the figure level and weak stops possibly limited and stronger offers likely increasing on a move higher towards the 111.00.
  • AUD: Slow push through into the Tokyo session with the market slowly buying the Oz from the opening 0.7730 area to test the 0.7745 for the Tokyo fix, once the market moved through the period the incline improved and the market pushed steadily through to just short of the 0.7770 as shorts cut before the announcement with the market holding above the 0.7760 for a couple of hours awaiting the no change and a slightly dovish commentary and the market quickly testing back into the 0.7730’s for the grey hour, topside offers into the 0.7800 area with weak stops through the 0.7820 before opening for a new run higher and strong offers likely through the 0.7840-60 area to build for the 79 cent level. Downside bids into the 0.7700 level with weak stops on a move through the 0.7680 area however, stronger bids then start to show through into the 0.7650 and ultimately the 0.7600 area and likely to continue in that fashion through to the 0.7550 area.
  • EUR: A very narrow range for the Euro with the market rising a little from the low 1.2225 area opening to push lightly through the 1.2235 level into mid-session in Tokyo before drifting back after the RBA announcement to test towards the 1.2220 area for the grey hour, Topside offers congested through to  the 1.2300 level with weak stops limited through the 1.2320 area and long term trend line around the 1.2345 area likely to see strong offers before weak stops opening the topside to further gains through the 1.2400 level. Downside bids into the 1.2140-60 level likely to be light and then increasing through the 1.2120 level to 1.2080 before weak stops appear and open up a deeper move through to the 1.2000 level with very little congestion until that point.

 

 

Overnight News

 

CNY:

Birth of three child policy too little, too late – SMP

China to allow three child families as birth rate declines sharply – BBC

USD:

Biden vows to end systemic racism on Greenwood anniversary – BBG

EUR/GBP:

EU and UK raise doubts about Covid vaccine patent waiver – AFP

AUD:

RBA: Conditions for rate rise unlikely until 2024 at earliest

RBA: Places high priority on return to full employment

RBA: Monitoring housing borrowing trends carefully

RBA: Prospect of outbreaks is ongoing uncertainty

 

Today’s Data

AUD       AIG Manufacturing Index (MAY) A 61.8 | P 61.7

NZD       Building Consents MoM (APR) A 4.8% | P 17.9%

JPY         Capital Spending YoY (Q1) A -7.8% | P -4.8%

AUD       Building Approvals MoM (APR) A -8.6% | C -10.0% | P 17.4% | R 18.9%

AUD       Company Gross Operating Profits QoQ (Q1) A -0.3% | C 3.0% | P -6.6% | R -4.8%

AUD       Current Account (Q1) A 18.3b | C 17.9b | P 14.5b

CNY       Caixin Manufacturing PMI (MAY) A 52 | C 51.9 | P 51.9

AUD       RBA Interest Rate Decision (JUN) A 0.10% | C 0.10% | P 0.10%

AUD       RBA Rate Statement

0700      GBP       Nationwide HPI MoM (MAY) A | C 0.8% | P 2.1%

0700      GBP        Nationwide HPI YoY (MAY) A | C 9.2% | P 7.1%

0730      CHF        Retail Sales YoY (APR) A | P 22.6%

0800      CHF        GDP QoQ (Q1) A | C -0.5% | P 0.3%

0800      CHF        GDP YoY (Q1) A | C -0.2% | P -1.6%

0830      EUR       Spanish Manufacturing PMI (MAY) A | C 59.5 | P 57.7

0830      CHF        Procure Ch PMI (MAY) A | C 70.0 | P 69.5

0855      EUR       German Manufacturing PMI (MAY) A | C 64.0 | P 66.2

0855      EUR       German Unemployment Change (MAY) A | C -9k | P 9k

0855      EUR       German Unemployment Rate (MAY) A | C 6.0% | P 6.0%

0900      EUR       Manufacturing PMI (MAY) A | C 62.8 | P 62.8

0930      GBP        Manufacturing PMI (MAY) A | C 66.1 | P 66.1

1000      EUR       CPI YoY (MAY) (P) A | C 1.9% | P 1.6%

1000      EUR       Unemployment Rate (APR) A | C 8.1% | P 8.1%

1100      USD       OPEC Meeting

1330      CAD       GDP MoM (MAR) A | C 1.0% | P 0.4%

1330      CAD       GDP YoY (Q1) A | P -3.23%

1330      CAD       GDP QoQ (Q1) A | P 2.3%

1330      CAD       GDP Annualized QoQ (Q1) A | C 6.7% | P 9.6%

1445      USD       Manufacturing PMI (MAY) A | P 61.5

1500      USD       FOMC Member Quarles Speaks

1500      USD       ISM Manufacturing Employment (MAY) A | C 61.5 | P 55.1

1500      USD       ISM Manufacturing PMI (MAY) A | C 60.7 | P 60.7

1600      GBP        BoE Gov. Bailey Speaks

1900      USD       FOMC Member Brainard Speaks

 

 

Premier Results

JPY         Industrial Production MoM (APR) (P) A 2.5% | C 4.1% | P 1.7%

JPY         Retail Sales YoY (APR) A 12.0% | C 15.3% | P 5.2%

CNY       Chinese Composite PMI (MAY) A 54.2 | P 53.8

CNY       Manufacturing PMI (MAY) A 51.0 | C 51.1 | P 51.1

CNY       Non-Manufacturing PMI (MAY) A 55.2 | P 54.9

NZD       ANZ Business Confidence (MAY) A 1.8 | P -2.0

AUD       Private Sector Credit MoM (APR) A 0.2% | P 0.4%

EUR       Spanish CPI YoY (MAY) (P) A 2.7% | P 2.2%

EUR       Spanish HICP YoY (MAY) (P) A 2.4% | C 2.4% | P 2.0%

EUR       German BuBa Vice Pres. Buch Speaks

EUR       German CPI MoM (MAY) (P) A 0.5% | C 0.3% | P 0.7%

CAD       Current Account (Q1) A 1.2b | C -8.3b | P -5.3b

CAD       RMPI MoM (APR) A 1.0% | P 2.3%

 

 

Best Regards

Andy

 

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LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   Andy Harrison  

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LMAX Group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the produced information was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX Group does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX Group or any other FX and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.