Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 109.478 | EURUSD 1.22137 | AUDUSD 0.77546 | NZDUSD 0.72566 | USDCAD 1.2071 | USDCHF 0.89747 | GBPUSD 1.41499 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.22266 | 1.22124
USDJPY 109.653 | 109.401
GBPUSD 1.41638 | 1.41462
USDCHF 0.89810 | 0.8967
AUDUSD 0.77729 | 0.77457
NZDUSD 0.72718 | 0.72495
USDCAD 1.20760 | 1.20579
EURCHF 1.09668 | 1.09574
EURGBP 0.86351 | 0.86294
EURJPY 134.020 | 133.673
For Today
- GBP: A very quiet session for the GBP with the market rising from the lows just after the opening to push from the 1.4145 area to test to the 1.4165 area and a tight range around the 1.4160 through to the grey hour with a limited dip through to the 1.4155 area, Topside offers light through the 1.4250 area with some congestion increasing on any move to the 1.4300 and stronger offers in the area, a break above the 1.4310 area will likely see weak stops and breakout stops coinciding and the topside open to a quick squeeze through the 1.4350 level and an attempt on the possibly weak 1.4400 area and stronger stops again through the level. Downside bids likely to increase on a move through the 1.4150 area and into the 1.4100 with a couple of weeks of congestion building up in the area with weak stops on a break through the 1.4090-80 area and opening to the 1.4000 level with very little support other than limited sentimental bids, however, the move through will then start to see stronger bids into the 1.3950-1.3900 area limiting any further loses.
- JPY: Choppy opening with the market testing towards the 109.40 level for the low of the day so far, the move into the Tokyo session steadily pushing through to the 109.65 area for the high of the day ranging around the 109.60 level through to the grey hour in limited movement, Downside light through the 108.50 before opening the market to a new test of the 108.00 level, stronger bids into the 107.80 however, a break through the level is likely to see weak stops and breakout stops appearing and the market free to quickly test 107.50 and an old trendline then nothing until closer to the 107.00 area where stronger bids start to appear but the downside opening to Feb levels, topside offers through to the 110.00 level with light congestion through the figure level and weak stops possibly limited and stronger offers likely increasing on a move higher towards the 111.00.
- AUD: Quiet run through into the Tokyo session holding the opening 0.7750 area before popping quickly higher from the Tokyo fix to the 0.7770 level and then ranging quietly around the 0.7765 area with a spike through the 0.7770 area to test through to the 0.7775 area, the run to the grey hour saw the market falling back to the opening levels, topside offers into the 0.7800 area with weak stops through the 0.7820 before opening for a new run higher and strong offers likely through the 0.7840-60 area to build for the 79 cent level. Downside bids into the 0.7700 level with weak stops on a move through the 0.7680 area however, stronger bids then start to show through into the 0.7650 and ultimately the 0.7600 area and likely to continue in that fashion through to the 0.7550 area.
- EUR: Opening around the 1.2214 and unable to probe to far lower the market turned off the level to push into the 1.2220s for the bulk of the session before dipping lightly through into the teens for the move to the grey hour in slow trading, Topside offers congested through to the 1.2300 level with weak stops limited through the 1.2320 area and long term trend line around the 1.2345 area likely to see strong offers before weak stops opening the topside to further gains through the 1.2400 level. Downside bids into the 1.2140-60 level likely to be light and then increasing through the 1.2120 level to 1.2080 before weak stops appear and open up a deeper move through to the 1.2000 level with very little congestion until that point.
Overnight News
TRY:
Erdogan: I spoke with Central bank Governor, we must lower rates – BBG
Erdogan: He will discuss Turkey-US tensions with Biden – BBG
Erdogan: Calls for lower interest rates to slow inflation – BBG
Erdogan: Turkey is determined to improve ties with Egypt – BBG
Erdogan: Good news on energy exploration on Friday – BBG
USD:
TSMC says construction of Arizona chip plant is well underway – BBG
Labour shortages are set to fade by the fall, Fed’s Brainard says – BBG
All of JBS’s US Beef plants were forced to shut by cyberattack – BBG
AUD:
Bumper crops worth 15b on cards despite mice plague – AFR
Taper not a dirty word at RBA – AFR
Australia’s GDP exceeds estimates, recouping pandemic losses – BBG
Job security is a problem according to Australians – ABC
JPY:
BoJ’s Adachi: Premature policy normalization could be costly
Adachi: Can achieve price goal by easing persistently
NZD:
RBNZ: Balance sheet will remain large for a long time – BBG
Today’s Data
AUD GDP QoQ (Q1) A 1.8% | C 1.5% | P 3.1%
AUD GDP YoY (Q1) A 1.1% | C 0.6% | P -1.1% | R -1.0%
0700 EUR German Retail Sales MoM (APR) A | C -2.0% | P 7.7%
0800 EUR Spanish Unemployment Change A | P -39.0k
1000 AUD RBA Assist Gov. Debelle Speaks
1330 CAD Building Permits MoM (APR) A | C -4.8% | P 5.7%
1600 GBP BoE Gov. Bailey Speaks
1645 EUR German BuBa President Weidmann Speaks
1810 EUR ECB’s Lagarde Speaks
1900 USD Beige Book
1900 USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
1900 USD FOMC Member Brainard Speaks
22130 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Speak A | P -0.439m
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: A steady climb through early Tokyo to make the high for the day just below the 1.4250 level leaving the market on a slow decline through to the grey hour pushing through to the 1.4210 area before bouncing for the move into the London session this time peaking around the 1.4240 level before dropping steadily back through to the 1.4180 level as USD buying moved through the early part of London, the run to the NYK session saw the market slowly testing through to the 1.4160 area and the NYK opening dipping to the 1.4155 area, a light recovery saw the market above the 1.4190 area and then another steady decline through to the close to make the low of the day just before the end around the 1.4145 area.
- JPY: USD selling through from a higher opening testing the 109.60 level and then a steady drift through to midsession in Tokyo testing the 109.30 area for the low of the day before crawling through to the grey hour ranging around the 109.50 for the London opening, London were quick buyers and the market tested back to the opening level and slowly pushed through to the 109.70 area on the move through to the NYK session, dipping quickly through to the lows again the market spent several hours then recovering to the 109.50 level for the close.
- AUD: A little choppy throughout the day, rising from the opening 0.7730 area to push quietly into Tokyo holding the 0.7745 area before running higher through the Tokyo fix and following through on a test towards the 0.7770 area for the first time and setting the range for the day with either side tested several times, holding around the highs to late in the Asian session before coming back to the 0.7740 for the move through into the grey hour and a light test into the 0.7730s, early London took the market quickly to the highs again before returning towards the low just as quickly, steady range around the 0.7740 area where NYK came in to test the lows again and then a slow climb through to the end of London to make the official high without breaking the 0.7770 level and a slow drift to the 0.7750 for the close.
- EUR: Range bound for the first half of the day with the market testing to the 1.2235 level in Tokyo before dipping through to the 1.2220 for the move into the grey hour, steady buying through into the London session saw the market this time testing to the 1.2240 area and a deeper dip this time to the 1.2212 level and a slow range through to the NYK opening holding around the 1.2220 level, NYK were buyers and took the Euro through to the 1.2250 area before slowly drifting through the session to finish the day just above the 1.2210 level.
Premier Results
AUD AIG Manufacturing Index (MAY) A 61.8 | P 61.7
NZD Building Consents MoM (APR) A 4.8% | P 17.9%
JPY Capital Spending YoY (Q1) A -7.8% | P -4.8%
AUD Building Approvals MoM (APR) A -8.6% | C -10.0% | P 17.4% | R 18.9%
AUD Company Gross Operating Profits QoQ (Q1) A -0.3% | C 3.0% | P -6.6% | R -4.8%
AUD Current Account (Q1) A 18.3b | C 17.9b | P 14.5b
CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI (MAY) A 52 | C 51.9 | P 51.9
AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision (JUN) A 0.10% | C 0.10% | P 0.10%
AUD RBA Rate Statement
GBP Nationwide HPI MoM (MAY) A 1.8% | C 0.8% | P 2.1% | R 2.3%
GBP Nationwide HPI YoY (MAY) A 10.9% | C 9.2% | P 7.1%
CHF Retail Sales YoY (APR) A 35.7% | P 22.6% | R 23.1%
CHF GDP QoQ (Q1) A -0.5% | C -0.5% | P 0.3%
CHF GDP YoY (Q1) A -0.5% | C -0.2% | P -1.6%
EUR Spanish Manufacturing PMI (MAY) A 59.4 | C 59.5 | P 57.7
CHF Procure Ch PMI (MAY) A 69.9 | C 70.0 | P 69.5
EUR German Manufacturing PMI (MAY) A 64.4 | C 64.0 | P 66.2
EUR German Unemployment Change (MAY) A -15k | C -9k | P 9k | R 8k
EUR German Unemployment Rate (MAY) A 6.0% | C 6.0% | P 6.0%
EUR Manufacturing PMI (MAY) A 63.1 | C 62.8 | P 62.8
GBP Manufacturing PMI (MAY) A 65.6 | C 66.1 | P 66.1
EUR CPI YoY (MAY) (P) A 2.0% | C 1.9% | P 1.6%
EUR Unemployment Rate (APR) A 8.0% | C 8.1% | P 8.1%
USD OPEC Meeting
CAD GDP MoM (MAR) A 1.1% | C 1.0% | P 0.4%
CAD GDP YoY (Q1) A 6.60% | P -3.23%
CAD GDP QoQ (Q1) A 1.4% | P 2.3% | R 2.2%
CAD GDP Annualized QoQ (Q1) A 5.6% | C 6.7% | P 9.6% | R 9.3%
USD Manufacturing PMI (MAY) A 62.1 | P 61.5
USD FOMC Member Quarles Speaks
USD ISM Manufacturing Employment (MAY) A 50.9 | C 61.5 | P 55.1
USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (MAY) A 62.1 | C 60.7 | P 60.7
GBP BoE Gov. Bailey Speaks
USD FOMC Member Brainard Speaks
Best Regards
Andy
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