Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 109.569 | EURUSD 1.22106 | AUDUSD 0.77518 | NZDUSD 0.72375 | USDCAD 1.20349 | USDCHF 0.89798 | GBPUSD 1.41715 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.22143 | 1.22025
USDJPY 109.717 | 109.535
GBPUSD 1.41791 | 1.41655
USDCHF 0.89844 | 0.89802
AUDUSD 0.77549 | 0.77381
NZDUSD 0.72419 | 0.72198
USDCAD 1.20441 | 1.20306
EURCHF 1.09683 | 1.09645
EURGBP 0.86186 | 0.86116
EURJPY 133.911 | 133.736
For Today
- GBP: A quiet run through the Asian session with a minor push to the 1.4180 level before sliding slowly through to the 1.4165 and the range defined for the session and then holding the opening levels through to the grey hour, Topside offers light through the 1.4250 area with some congestion increasing on any move to the 1.4300 and stronger offers in the area, a break above the 1.4310 area will likely see weak stops and breakout stops coinciding and the topside open to a quick squeeze through the 1.4350 level and an attempt on the possibly weak 1.4400 area and stronger stops again through the level. Downside bids likely to increase on a move through the 1.4150 area and into the 1.4100 with a couple of weeks of congestion building up in the area with weak stops on a break through the 1.4090-80 area and opening to the 1.4000 level with very little support other than limited sentimental bids, however, the move through will then start to see stronger bids into the 1.3950-1.3900 area limiting any further loses.
- JPY: A slow climb through the session from the opening lows around the 109.55 area to test towards the 109.70 level in a very quiet session, Downside light through the 108.50 before opening the market to a new test of the 108.00 level, stronger bids into the 107.80 however, a break through the level is likely to see weak stops and breakout stops appearing and the market free to quickly test 107.50 and an old trendline then nothing until closer to the 107.00 area where stronger bids start to appear but the downside opening to Feb levels, topside offers through to the 110.00 level with light congestion through the figure level and weak stops possibly limited and stronger offers likely increasing on a move higher towards the 111.00.
- AUD: Light trading from the opening around the 0.7750 area and testing initially into the Tokyo session holding the 0.7745 level and then running for the second time having made it to the 0.7755 area to test below the 0.7740 level and holding just above for the move into the grey hour, topside offers into the 0.7800 area with weak stops through the 0.7820 before opening for a new run higher and strong offers likely through the 0.7840-60 area to build for the 79 cent level. Downside bids into the 0.7700 level with weak stops on a move through the 0.7680 area however, stronger bids then start to show through into the 0.7650 and ultimately the 0.7600 area and likely to continue in that fashion through to the 0.7550 area.
- EUR: Very quiet through into midsession in Tokyo before slowly drifting from the 1.2214 high to test the 1.2202 area and hold through to the grey hour in that area, Topside offers congested through to the 1.2300 level with weak stops limited through the 1.2320 area and long term trend line around the 1.2345 area likely to see strong offers before weak stops opening the topside to further gains through the 1.2400 level. Downside bids into the 1.2140-60 level likely to be light and then increasing through the 1.2120 level to 1.2080 before weak stops appear and open up a deeper move through to the 1.2000 level with very little congestion until that point.
Overnight News
AUD:
Wesfarmers sees volatility as retailers’ cycle Covid spending boom – AFR
RBA’s Debelle and Bullock conclude testimony – BBG
Bullock: View at moment is lending standards not being relaxed – BBG
Debelle: GDP Today Marginally stronger than RBA may forecasts – BBG
Debelle: Have to wait and see impact of Victorian shutdown – BBG
Debelle: Forecasts were based on short, sharp lockdowns – BBG
RBA July parachute presser smacks of hawkish risk for bonds – BBG
AUD/VND:
Vietnamese company scoops up NT iron ore site – NS6
USD/CNY:
Biden’s China ban overhaul may put even more companies at risk – BBG
USD:
LNG exports surpass Australia and reach fresh record – BBG
Fed to sell Corporate Bonds and ETFs purchased during Covid crisis – DJ
Today’s Data
JPY Services PMI (MAY) A 46.5 | P 49.5
AUD Retail Sales MoM (APR) A 1.1% | C 1.1% | P 1.1%
AUD Trade Balance (APR) A 8.028b | C 7.90b | P 5.574b
CNY Caixin Services PMI (MAY) A 55.1 | P 56.3
0815 EUR Spanish Services PMI (MAY) A | C 58.0 | P 54.6
0855 EUR German Services PMI (MAY) A | C 52.8 | P 52.8
0900 EUR Markit Composite PMI (MAY) A | C 56.9 | P 53.8
0900 EUR Services PMI (MAY) A | C 55.1 | P 50.5
0930 GBP Composite PMI (MAY) A | C 62.0 | P 62.0
0930 GBP Services PMI (MAY) A | C 61.8 | P 61.8
1315 USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (MAY) A | C 650k | P 742k
1330 USD Initial Jobless Claims A | C 390k | P 406k
1330 USD Nonfarm Productivity QoQ (Q1) A | C 5.5% | P 5.4%
1330 USD Unit Labour Costs QoQ (Q1) A | C -0.4% | P -0.3%
1445 USD Market Composite PMI (MAY) A | C 68.1 | P 63.5
1445 USD Services PMI (MAY) A | C 70.1 | P 64.7
1500 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (MAY) A | P 58.8
1500 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (MAY) A | C 63.0 | P 62.7
1600 USD Crude Oil Inventories A | C -2.443m | P -1.662m
1730 USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
2005 USD FOMC Member Quarles Speaks
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Opening quietly around the 1.4150 level and holding the level through into the Tokyo session before rising a little through to the 1.4165 area to hold through the bulk of the Tokyo session before drifting for the move into the grey hour holding the 1.4150 area again, London were slow sellers through to the 1.4130 area before holding for a couple of hours before dipping for the move into the NYK opening bouncing off the 1.4110 level for a steady rise through to the 1.4175 area and a light push for the high into the 1.4185 as the market centred on a tight range around the 1.4165 through to the close.
- JPY: running through to the Tokyo session holding just above the 109.45 level with a minor dip to the 109.42 for the low of the day, Tokyo took it steadily through to the 109.65 area and holding through to late in the session, slow buying again appeared and the market pushed through to the 109.85 area into the grey hour and repeating the move in London but unable to go beyond the 109.88 area with the second failure seeing sellers reacting and the market dipping in waves through to the NYK session to move to the London close around the 109.60 area the move to the close saw some light selling before holding the 109.55 through to the close.
- AUD: Better GDP numbers initially saw the market rising in Tokyo from the opening 0.7750 area to test through the 0.7770 level for the high of the day before heading deep into the session, the move towards the grey hour saw the market starting a steady drop dropping in waves through the lows and testing to the 0.7730 level for the London opening and then dipping through to test the 0.7715 a couple of times before rejecting the low and slowly recovering through the NYK opening to push back to the opening levels and then holding in a tight range around the 0.7750 to the close.
- EUR: Opening quietly and holding the 1.2210 area and once into the Tokyo session to test to the 1.2225 level for the highs of the day before slowly moving through to the grey hour testing back to the opening level and the London opening saw the weakness increasing through to the 1.2165 area triggering some weak stops along the way before bouncing of the sentimental bidding to recover steadily through to the opening level into the London close and then a long quiet run to the close.
Premier Results
AUD GDP QoQ (Q1) A 1.8% | C 1.5% | P 3.1%
AUD GDP YoY (Q1) A 1.1% | C 0.6% | P -1.1% | R -1.0%
EUR German Retail Sales MoM (APR) A -5.5% | C -2.0% | P 7.7%
EUR Spanish Unemployment Change A -129.4k | P -39.0k
AUD RBA Assist Gov. Debelle Speaks
CAD Building Permits MoM (APR) A -0.5% | C -4.8% | P 5.7% | R 7.6%
GBP BoE Gov. Bailey Speaks
EUR German BuBa President Weidmann Speaks
EUR ECB’s Lagarde Speaks
USD Beige Book
USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
USD FOMC Member Brainard Speaks
USD API Weekly Crude Oil Speak A -5.360m | C -2.114m | P -0.439m
Best Regards
Andy
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