Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 109.325 | EURUSD 1.21761 | AUDUSD 0.77524 | NZDUSD 0.72006 | USDCAD 1.20953 | USDCHF 0.89454 | GBPUSD 1.41763 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.21914 | 1.21705
USDJPY 109.453 | 109.292
GBPUSD 1.41791 | 1.41574
USDCHF 0.89508 | 0.89345
AUDUSD 0.77576 | 0.77454
NZDUSD 0.72099 | 0.71865
USDCAD 1.21017 | 1.20865
EURCHF 1.08959 | 1.08872
EURGBP 0.85985 | 0.85855
EURJPY 133.367 | 1.33073
For Today
- GBP: A quiet Asian session with the market holding around the closing area to range through to the grey hour unable to push through the 1.4180 area and basing around the 1.4165-70 area, Topside offers light through the 1.4250 area with some congestion increasing on any move to the 1.4300 and stronger offers in the area, a break above the 1.4310 area will likely see weak stops and breakout stops coinciding and the topside open to a quick squeeze through the 1.4350 level and an attempt on the possibly weak 1.4400 area and stronger stops again through the level. Downside bids likely to increase on a move through to the 1.4100 with a couple of weeks of congestion building up in the area with weak stops on a break through the 1.4090-80 area and opening to the 1.4000 level with very little support other than limited sentimental bids, however, the move through will then start to see stronger bids into the 1.3950-1.3900 area limiting any further loses.
- JPY: Opening just above the 109.30 level the market slowly pushed through into the early hours in Tokyo to test through the 109.45 before holding quietly around the 109.40 area through into the grey hour, Downside light through the 109.20-00 with increasing bids into the 108.50 this opens the market to a new test of the 108.00 level, stronger bids into the 107.80 however, a break through the level is likely to see weak stops and breakout stops appearing and the market free to quickly test 107.50 and an old trendline then nothing until closer to the 107.00 area where stronger bids start to appear but the downside opening to Feb levels, topside offers through to the 110.00 level with light congestion through the figure level and weak stops possibly limited and stronger offers likely increasing on a move higher towards the 111.00.
- AUD: A very limited day for the Oz with the market opening around the 0.7755 area towards the high for the day before dipping to the 0.7745 late into the session before recovering to the opening level and never quiet reaching the early high around the 0.7757, topside offers into the 0.7800 area with weak stops through the 0.7820 before opening for a new run higher and strong offers likely through the 0.7840-60 area to build for the 79-cent level. Downside bids into the 0.7700 level with weak stops on a move through the 0.7680 area however, stronger bids then start to show through into the 0.7650 and ultimately the 0.7600 area and likely to continue in that fashion through to the 0.7550 area.
- EUR: A slow rise of the 1.2170 area early low pushing back through the opening 1.2175 area to slowly move through the session into the grey hour testing lightly above the 1.2190 area before holding quietly just off the highs, Topside offers congested through to the 1.2220 area before weak stops appear and the market opens for a renewed push to the 1.2300 level with weak stops limited through the 1.2320 area and long term trend line around the 1.2345 area likely to see strong offers before weak stops opening the topside to further gains through the 1.2400 level. Downside bids into the 1.2140-60 level likely to be light and then increasing through the 1.2120 level to 1.2080 before weak stops appear and open up a deeper move through to the 1.2000 level with very little congestion until that point.
Overnight News
AUD/USD:
Dutton signals more US troops in Australia – AFR
USD:
Half of the pandemic’s unemployment money may have been stolen – AXS
Consumers are paying more than they have in years – AXS
AUD:
ANZ Hikes longer term fixed rates – AFR
Today’s Data
NZD Business NZ PMI (MAY) A 58.6 | P 58.4
JPY BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions (Q2) A 1.4 | P 1.6
0700 GBP GDP MoM A | C 2.2% | P 2.1%
0700 GBP GDP YoY (Q1) A | C -6.1% | P -7.8%
0700 GBP GDP QoQ (Q1) A | C -1.5% | P 1.3%
0700 GBP Industrial Production MoM (APR) A | C 1.2% | P 1.8%
0700 GBP Manufacturing Production MoM (APR) A | C 1.5% | P 2.1%
0700 GBP Monthly GDP 3m/3m Change A | P -1.5%
0700 GBP Trade Balance (APR) A | C -12.10b | P -11.71b
0700 GBP Trade Balance Non-EU A | P -6.55b
0800 EUR Spanish CPI YoY (MAY) A | C 2.7% | P 2.7%
0800 EUR Spanish HICP YoY (MAY) A | C 2.4% | P 2.0%
0930 GBP BoE Gov. Bailey Speaks
1400 GBP NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker A | P 1.3%
1500 USD Michigan Consumer Expectations (JUN) (P) A | C 79.0 | P 78.8
1500 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment (JUN) (P) A | C 84.0 | P 82.9
1800 USD US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count A | P 457
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: A reasonably quiet Asian session with the market holding around the 1.4115 level with slight sojourns to the 1.4105 area and pushing in early Tokyo to test the 1.4125, the move into the grey hour saw the market dip towards the 1.4100 level before early London broke through to the 1.4075 in a quick move triggering weak stops on the move through the figure level, the market then settled and started a slow recovery through to the NYK opening pushing to the 1.4110 level and the inflation releases seeing the Cable rushing to the 1.4150 level and for a short period choppy as it managed to reach the 1.4170 after a brief couple of dips then running in a long quiet range through to the close holding the highs just short of the 1.4180 level.
- JPY: A slow drift through the Asian session making the early high towards the 109.70 area and then stepping down to the 109.55 area for several hours, then dipping on another step to the 109.50 area and a deeper range between 109.45 and 109.60 through to just before the NYK opening, USDJPY buying into the opening saw choppy movements as the market headed to the 109.80 level for the high only to drop back on the inflationary numbers to the 109.40 level holding the level for a couple of hours before breaking lower again to run to the close holding just above the 109.30 area.
- AUD: Moving from the opening 0.7730 area in what became a steady push through into the London session to test towards the 0.7745 level the market made an early dip in Tokyo to the low 0.7720’s and seemed to wake up only on the release of CPI numbers in the US, dipping initially as it would seem the knee jerk reaction was still that any rise in interest rate move is a year or so away at best making the USD eventually move off away from the days low just below the 0.7720 area to quickly push the 0.7755 level and continue chopping around as traditionalists and economists tousled with each other, extending the high to the 0.7765 area before settling down for the run to the close holding the 0.7755 level.
- EUR: Not as stronger move as some of the pairings through the day with the Euro sliding slowly from the opening around the 1.2180 level to test through Asian session into the grey hour holding the 1.2160 level, London opening pressed to the 1.2152 area before starting a slow recovery for the NYK opening to get to the opening levels again, Choppy period through the US numbers saw the move lower was deeper as concerns that the EU economy is no less inflationary than the US if not possibly worse, testing too the 1.2195 area before dipping to the 1.2145 just as quickly and then settling back to range quietly through to the close around the 1.2175 area and just in the red for the day.
Premier Results
GBP RICS House Price Balance (MAY) A 83% | C 77% | P 75% | R 76%
AUD HIA New Home Sales MoM A 15.2% | P -54.4%
CNY New Loans A 1,500.0b | P 1,470.0b
USD OPEC Monthly Report
EUR Deposit Facility Rate (JUN) A -0.50% | C -0.50% | P -0.50%
EUR ECB Marginal Lending Facility A 0.25% | P 0.25%
EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision (JUN) A 0.00% | C 0.0% | P 0.0%
GBP BoE MPC Member Haldane Speaks
USD Core CPI YoY (MAY) A 3.8% | C 3.4% | P 3.0%
USD Core CPI MoM (MAY) A 0.7% | C 0.4% | P 0.9%
USD CPI MoM (MAY) A 0.6% | C 0.4% | P 0.8%
USD Initial Jobless Claims A 376k | C 370k | P 385k | R 405k
EUR ECB Press Conference
USD WASDE Report
EUR ECB’s Lane Speaks#
USD Fed Budget Balance (MAY) A -132.0b | P -226.0b
Best Regards
Andy
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