Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 110.324 | EURUSD 1.19183 | AUDUSD 0.75389 | NZDUSD 0.69929 | USDCAD 1.23621 | USDCHF 0.91798 | GBPUSD 1.39343 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.19219 | 1.19011
USDJPY 110.473 | 110.215
GBPUSD 1.39376 | 1.39019
USDCHF 0.91963 | 0.91709
AUDUSD 0.75454 | 0.75126
NZDUSD 0.70030 | 0.6971
USDCAD 1.23826 | 1.23591
EURCHF 1.09489 | 1.09395
EURGBP 0.85616 | 0.85486
EURJPY 131.555 | 131.22
For Today
- GBP: Opening on the highs around the 1.3935 level the market drifted through into the Tokyo session slipping slowly back to the 1.3900 area before recovering a little to hold around the 1.3915-20 area through to the grey hour, Topside congestion through to the 1.3960 level before weaker sellers continue through the 1.4000 level and likely stronger stops above the level with limited resistance through to the stronger 1.4100 level and congestion several weeks deep. Downside bids light through the 1.3900 level with stronger bids then increasing on a move through the 1.3850 area and into the 1.3800 level strong stops likely on a test through the 1.3770 area and opening for a deeper move.
- JPY: A quiet range overall, rising from the opening around the 110.30 level to test the 110.40 into the Tokyo fix before dipping back and testing to the other side of the opening just above the 110.20 level holding quietly before slowly recovering the highs and pushing lightly through the 110.45 level to hold the 110.40 to the grey hour, topside congestion appearing from the 110.40-60 area before stronger offers start to appear on any move towards the 110.80 level and likely to continue through the 111.20 level before stops appear however, stronger offers around the 111.50 level likely to limit the first move higher. Downside bids light through to the 109.00 and congestion all the way through, a push through the 108.80 level will likely see weak stops appearing and the market then seeing light congestion to the 108.50 and stronger bids from there on.
- AUD: Opening a touch lower and rising from the 0.7535 level to fill the gap and push through to the 0.7545 areas for the move to the Tokyo fix before dropping quickly through the 0.7530 level and a slow drift through to the 0.7510 area before finding support with a slight rise for the move into the grey hour, light congestion to the Topside through the 0.7550 area however, a push through sees very little to slow the market through to the 0.7620 area and likely weak stops starting to build in the area, downside bids light and weak stops likely on a dip through todays lows and the market opening for a test through to the 0.7350 level with little trouble before stronger congestion through into the 0.7300 level.
- EUR: Ranging around the 1.1910 level through the session with the market initially dropping from the opening 1.1920 level to slowly drift through to the 1.1900 area before recovering to the 1.1910 areas for the grey hour, downside congestion through the 1.1820-1.1780 area, a break sees weak stops however, congestion is likely to continue to the 1.1700 level absorbing most of the pressure and likely stronger bids for the moment, Topside offers light through to the 1.1920 and limited congestion and increasing on a move through the 1.1960 level before stronger stops appear above the 1.2020 area if it could get there in a short squeeze.
Overnight News
NZD:
NZ may credit card spending rises 8.5% vs. month ago – BBG
CNY/AUD:
China-Australia relations: Port of Newcastle becomes second Port with Chinese interests to come under political fire – SMP
USD:
Fed’s Williams says inflation should be close to 2% next year – BBG
Williams: Economy a ways off from substantial further progress – BBG
Powell prepared statement for tomorrow: Inflation has increased notably in recent months. This reflects, in part, the very low readings from early in the pandemic falling out of the calculation; the pass-through of past increases in oil prices to consumer energy prices; the rebound in spending as the economy continues to reopen; and the exacerbating factor of supply bottlenecks, which have limited how quickly production in some sectors can respond in the near term. As these transitory supply effects abate, inflation is expected to drop back toward our longer term goal.
EUR:
ECB Lagarde says ECB still has room to cut interest rates if needed
Today’s Data
1100 GBP CBI Industrial Trends Orders (JUN) A | C 18 | P 17
1430 EUR German BuBa Wuermeling Speaks
1500 USD Existing Home Sales (MAY) A | C 5.72m | P 5.85m
1500 USD Existing Home Sales MoM (MAY) A | P -2.7%
1500 EUR ECB’s Lane Speaks
1600 USD FOMC Member Daly Speaks
1830 EUR ECB’s Schnabel Speaks
1900 USD Fed Chair Powell Testifies
2130 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock A | P -8.537m
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Opening around the 1.3800 level with minor dips below the level the market pushed quietly through into the Tokyo session rising to the 1.3825 area before dipping away again to push through to the 1.3785 area for the low of the day and then holding through to the grey hour testing the 1.3800 level again. The move through the grey hour and into the London opening saw the market increasing quickly through the 1.3850 level and steadily from there rising through to the 1.3900 level into NYK with the market then slowing and steadily rising to hold around the 1.3935 area through to the close.
- JPY: Dipping from the opening highs above the 110.30 level the move through into the midsession in Tokyo saw the market initially testing through the 110.00 level and then doubling down on a move to the 109.70 area before finding some support and a slow rise from the grey hour to push through the London session testing the 110.00 level again, holding through early London to the NYK session ranging quietly around the 110.10 level the market pushed in the first hour in NYK to above the 110.35 level and then drift and recover for the move to the close.
- AUD: Opening just above what would become the low of the day the Oz slowly pushed into the Tokyo session testing through to the 75 cents level and then waiting until midsession before testing the 0.7520 level after a few hours holding just above the figure level, the move through to the grey hour saw the market back to the opening level and the London opening saw the low made just below the 0.7480 area in an attempt to find weak stops, the recovery was quick and the market then moved off the figure level again to steadily rise to the 0.7520 for the move into the NYK session, a quick move and the weak stops running into the mid 0.7535 area before the market stalled around the 0.7540 area for the move to the close.
- EUR: Early gains were lost as the market moved through into the mid-Tokyo period dropping back from just short of the 1.1880 area to test to the 1.1850 area, a steady recovery through to the grey hour saw a round of strong selling shift through the market in what looked like a single large ticket before bouncing sharply on the London opening to push through the previous highs and a steady rise through to the 1.1900 level to hold quietly through to the NYK session, an hour into NYK a push through to the 1.1900 level for a second run continued to rise and push to the 1.1920 and tight range to the close.
Premier Results
AUD Retail Sales MoM (MAY) (P) A 0.1% | C 1.1% | P 1.1%
CNY PBoC Loan Prime Rate A 3.85% | P 3.85%
EUR ECB’s Lagarde Speaks
USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
NZD Westpac Consumer Sentiment (Q2) A 107.1 | P 105.2
Best Regards
Andy
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