Day Image
18th April 2025 | view in browser
Easter slowdown hits markets

Trading conditions have thinned out into the end of the week with many market participants off the desks for the Easter weekend. As we come into Friday, things look relatively stable in the aftermath of the ECB decision to cut rates by another 25 basis points, bringing rates to a 2-year low.
 
 
Performance chart 30day v. USD (%)
Performance Chart
 
 
Technical & fundamental highlights
EURUSD: technical overview

The Euro has finally broken out from a multi-month consolidation off a critical longer-term low. This latest push through the 2023 high lends further support to the case for a meaningful bottom, setting the stage for a bullish structural shift and the next major upside extension targeting the 2021 high at 1.2350. Setbacks should be exceptionally well supported below 1.1000.
EURUSD Chart
R2 1.1496 - 2022 high - Strong
R1 1.1474 - 11 April/2025 high - Strong
S1 1.1181 - 11 April low - Medium
S2 1.1000 - Psychological - Strong
EURUSD: fundamental overview

The Euro came under mild pressure after the European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates by a quarter point, marking their seventh rate reduction in eight meetings, bringing rates to a two-year low. ECB President Lagarde said the cut was unanimous, with no support for a larger 50-basis-point reduction, while also highlighting “exceptional uncertainty” in the economy due to escalating trade tensions. Lagarde went on to add that the full impact of tariffs wouldn’t be clear by the June meeting, indicating a cautious approach to future policy decisions. Looking ahead, there is no first tier risk on the calendar for the remainder of the day, leaving all of the focus on the bigger picture stories.

 
 
USDJPY: technical overview

There are signs of a meaningful top in place after the market put in a multi-year high in 2024. At this point, the door is now open for a deeper setback towards the 140 area over the coming sessions.
USDJPY Chart
R2 146.54 - 11 March low - Strong
R1 144.58 - 11 April high - Medium
S1 141.61 - 17 April/2025 low - Medium
S2 140.00 - Psychological - Strong
USDJPY: fundamental overview

Then Yen has reconsidered the latest run of gains from optimism around progress on trade between Japan and the United States. This follows Japanese trade representative Akazawa’s comment that the Yen didn’t get any mention during the ongoing talks. On the data front, Japan inflation data didn’t inspire much volatility after coming in as expected on the whole. Looking ahead, there is no first tier risk on the calendar for the remainder of the day, leaving all of the focus on the bigger picture stories.

 
 
AUDUSD: technical overview

There are signs of the potential formation of a longer-term base with the market trading down into a meaningful longer-term support zone. Only a monthly close below 0.5500 would give reason for rethink. A monthly close back above 0.7000 will take the big picture pressure off the downside and strengthen case for a bottom.
AUDUSD Chart
R2 0.6409 - 21 February/2025 high - Strong
R1 0.6394 - 17 April high - Medium
S1 0.6181 - 11 April low - Medium
S1 0.6115 - 10 April low - Medium
AUDUSD: fundamental overview

The Australian Dollar looks set to close out the week near the highs on the back of encouraging comments from China’s He Lifeng which point to a possible trade dialogue with the United States. Looking ahead, there is no first tier risk on the calendar for the remainder of the day, leaving all of the focus on the bigger picture stories.

 
 
USDCAD: technical overview

A sustained upside pressure over the past several months signals an end to a period of longer-term bearish consolidation and suggests the market is in the process of carving out a more significant longer-term base. Next key resistance now comes in at the 1.5000 psychological barrier. Setbacks should be very well supported ahead of 1.3500.
USDCAD Chart
R2 1.4297 - 7 April high - Strong
R1 1.4111 - 10 April high - Medium
S1 1.3828 - 14 April/2025 low - Medium
S2 1.3817 - 6 November low - Medium
USDCAD: fundamental overview

The Canadian Dollar has retained a bid tone into the end of the week, getting its latest boost from a surge in the price of oil on the back of the news out of the Financial Times that China is helping the Houthis target US ships. Looking ahead, there is no first tier risk on the calendar for the remainder of the day, leaving all of the focus on the bigger picture stories.

 
 
Suggested reading

Jamie Dimon urges US to engage with China, R. Khalaf, Financial Times (April 15, 2025)

Risk, Not Volatility, Is the Real Enemy for Investors, C. Benz, Morningstar (April 16, 2025)
 

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information ("information") contained on this Blog, constitutes marketing communication and it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the information contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. LMAX Group has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

LMAX Group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the produced information was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX Group does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX Group or any other FX and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.