Loss of confidence in US government and Fed

Next 24 hours: Making sense of Dollar price action

Today’s report: Loss of confidence in US government and Fed

US equities ended up lower on Monday, mostly on the back of concerns over US government disruption, which clearly weighed on investor confidence. Bickering between the Dems and Republicans around the debt ceiling and other things were behind this latest drag on confidence.

Wake-up call

Chart talk: Technical & fundamental highlights

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EURUSD – technical overview

The market has been looking for a higher low since topping out in 2021 up at 1.2350. Ideally, setbacks continue to be well supported above 1.1600 on a weekly close basis in favour of the next major upside extension back through 1.2350 and towards a retest of the 2018 high at 1.2555 further up. Only a weekly close below 1.1600 would force a rethink.

  • R2 1.1756 – 22 September high– Strong
  • R1 1.1691 - 29 September high – Medium
  • S1 1.1562 - 30 September/2021 low – Medium
  • S2 1.1500 – Psychological – Strong

EURUSD – fundamental overview

It was time for some demand to come back into play, with the Euro back on the bid to start the week, mostly on the back of broad based USD selling. Economic data out of the Zone was less than impressive, with investor confidence reads sagging. Key standouts on today’s calendar come in the form of PMI reads out of Germany, the Eurozone, and UK, Eurozone producer prices, Canada trade, US trade, and US ISM non-manufacturing.

EURUSD - Technical charts in detail

GBPUSD – technical overview

The market is in a consolidation phase in the aftermath of the run to fresh 2021 and multi-month highs. At this stage, additional setbacks should be limited to the 1.3200 area ahead of the next major upside extension towards a retest and break of critical resistance in the form of the 2018 high.

  • R2 1.3751 – 23 September high – Strong
  • R1 1.3641 – 4 October high – Medium
  • S1 1.3412 – 29 September/2021 low – Medium
  • S2 1.3400 – Figure – Strong

GBPUSD – fundamental overview

The Pound managed to outperform on Monday as the US Dollar sold off across the board and the UK market priced in more BOE rate hikes. Three hikes, comprising 15 bps, 25 bps and 25 bps are now discounted by the end of 2022. Key standouts on today’s calendar come in the form of PMI reads out of Germany, the Eurozone, and UK, Eurozone producer prices, Canada trade, US trade, and US ISM non-manufacturing.

USDJPY – technical overview

The longer-term trend is bearish despite the recent run higher. Look for additional upside to be limited, with scope for a topside failure and bearish resumption back down towards the 100.00 area. It would take a clear break back above 113.00 to negate the outlook.

  • R2 113.00 – Figure– Strong
  • R1 112.08 – 30 September/2021 high – Medium
  • S1 110.82 – 4 October low – Medium
  • S2 110.45 – 8 September high – Medium

USDJPY – fundamental overview

Japanese FinMin Aso has departed office as the longest serving finance minister. Aso will be replaced by his brother-in-law, which calls into question the idea of introducing new policy. The Yen has been chopping around to start the week. Key standouts on today’s calendar come in the form of PMI reads out of Germany, the Eurozone, and UK, Eurozone producer prices, Canada trade, US trade, and US ISM non-manufacturing.

AUDUSD – technical overview

The Australian Dollar has been in the process of a healthy correction following the impressive run towards a retest of the 2018 high earlier this year. At this stage, there is risk for additional declines, though setbacks are expected to be well supported down into the 0.7000 area. Look for a weekly close above 0.7500 to force a shift in the structure.

  • R2 0.7410 – 10 September high – Strong
  • R1 0.7317 – 24 September high – Medium
  • S1 0.7170 – 29 September low – Medium
  • S2 0.7106 – 20 August/2021 low – Strong

AUDUSD – fundamental overview

A supply chain disruption has triggered a massive rally in commodities prices, which has been behind a lot of this latest bid in the Australian Dollar. Iron ore prices were up over 6% on Monday. Key standouts on today’s calendar come in the form of PMI reads out of Germany, the Eurozone, and UK, Eurozone producer prices, Canada trade, US trade, and US ISM non-manufacturing.

USDCAD – technical overview

Finally signs of a major bottom in the works after a severe decline from the 2020 high. A recent weekly close back above 1.2500 encourages the constructive outlook and opens the door for a push back towards next critical resistance in the 1.3000 area. Any setbacks should be well supported into the 1.2200s.

  • R2 1.2949 – 20 August/2021 high – Strong
  • R1 1.2896 – 20 September high – Medium
  • S1 1.2558– 4 October low – Medium
  • S2 1.2494 – 3 September low – Strong

USDCAD – fundamental overview

The Canadian Dollar wasn't bothered by a drop in Canada building permits, instead focusing more on broad based US Dollar weakness and crude oil futures trading to 7 year highs. Key standouts on today’s calendar come in the form of PMI reads out of Germany, the Eurozone, and UK, Eurozone producer prices, Canada trade, US trade, and US ISM non-manufacturing.

NZDUSD – technical overview

The market has entered a period of consolidation after running up to a yearly and multi-month high. At this stage, rallies should be well capped and there is still room for deeper setbacks into the 0.6500-0.6800 area before we see an attempt at a higher low and resumption of upside pressure. Back above the April high at 0.7317 would be required to force a shift in the structure.

  • R2 0.7094 – 23 September high – Medium
  • R1 0.6982 – 4 October high – Medium
  • S1 0.6860 – 29 September low – Medium
  • S2 0.6809 – 19 August/2021 low – Strong

NZDUSD – fundamental overview

The New Zealand OIS market is pricing an 80% chance of an RBNZ rate hike on Wednesday. Still, the New Zealand Dollar has been struggling to rally given the latest news of the Auckland lockdown extension. Key standouts on today’s calendar come in the form of PMI reads out of Germany, the Eurozone, and UK, Eurozone producer prices, Canada trade, US trade, and US ISM non-manufacturing.

US SPX 500 – technical overview

Longer-term technical studies are looking quite exhausted and the market is showing signs of wanting to roll over after racing to another record high. Look for rallies to be well capped ahead of 4600, with a break back below 4353 to strengthen the outlook.

  • R2 4552 – 3 September/Record high – Strong
  • R1 4485 – 27 September high – Medium
  • S1 4272 – 1 October low – Medium
  • S2 4233 – 19 July low – Strong

US SPX 500 – fundamental overview

We're trading just off fresh record highs, and yet, with so little room for additional central bank accommodation, given an already depressed interest rate environment, the prospect for sustainable runs to the topside on easy money policy incentives and government stimulus, should no longer be as enticing to investors. Meanwhile, ongoing worry associated with coronavirus fallout and risk of rising inflation should weigh more heavily on investor sentiment into Q4 2021.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overview

The 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, opening the door for fresh record highs and an acceleration beyond the next major psychological barrier at 2000. Setbacks should now be well supported above 1600.

  • R2 1917 – 1 June high – Strong
  • R1 1835 – 15 July high – Medium
  • S1 1700 – Round number – Medium
  • S2 1677 – 8 March/2021 low – Strong

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overview

The yellow metal continues to be well supported on dips with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about exhausted monetary policy, extended global equities, and coronavirus fallout. All of this should keep the commodity well supported, with many market participants also fleeing to the hard asset as the grand dichotomy of record high equities and record low yields comes to an unnerving climax. [audio mp3="https://www.lmax.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2021/09/15seplmaxaudio.mp3"][/audio]

Peformance chart: 30 Day Performance vs. US dollar (%)

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