Andy Harrison
Good morning,
NYK Close
USDJPYÂ 79.89 | EURUSD 1.30508Â | EURJPYÂ 104.262 | AUDUSDÂ 1.01973 | NZDUSDÂ 0.79556 | USDCADÂ 0.99314 | EURCHFÂ 1.20142 | USDCHFÂ 0.92053 | GBPUSDÂ 1.6190 | EURGBP 0.80611Â
Harry Hindsight
The weekend news flowing out of Europe was not the best one would wish for setting the Euro to open down on Fridays close and trading lower once Tokyo walked in to see the news, having traded down below 1.3000 from the opening the market ran out of steam and traded sideways in an ever declining range up until London walked in and decided that was far enough, early Russian buyer took advantage of the lows and it started a steady trending move back above 1.3000 eventually topping out above 1.3060 for the day’s highs before again going into a sideways market till the close around the 1.3050/60 level.  GBP suffered the same drop not as deep only 30 tics or so but having traded down to the 1.6120 level moving into London the move up exceeded it’s drop and moved back above 1.6190 into mid NYK session with no real news to follow through on. AUD the gap was not so noticeable as the Ozzies move lower was started on Friday and left the market continuing that move, having opened below Friday’s lows the Euro stopped any bounce and it traded down to 1.0110 before finding support in front of the 1.0100 level with suspected exporter bids and small option barrier as with the Euro the market started to move higher once the London market opened and by late NYK we’d moved back above the 1.0200 to peak  out around the high 1.02teens before drifting down to the figure into the close. USDJPY made early moves lower on the opening however, rumour has it that it ran into two batches of liquidity down around the 79.50/60 from exporters and Lifers holding the market and turning it higher moving quickly to test the 80.00 area in the next 40 mins before settling down to range in a narrow band until NYK interest pushed it back to the 80.00 and a tight range from there into the end of the session.
Yesterday’s premiership results
Actual = A | Consensus=C | Previous=P | Revised=RÂ
01:30Â Â Â AUDÂ Â Â Â Building Approvals M/M Mar A 7.40% | C 3.20% | P -7.80% | R -8.80%
01:30   AUD    NAB Business Confidence Apr  A 4 | P 3        Â
01:30   AUD    Retail Sales M/M Mar    A 0.90% | C 0.20% | P 0.20% | R 0.30%
05:45Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Apr A 3.10% | C 3.10% | PÂ 3.10%Â Â
07:00   CHF     Foreign Currency Reserves (CHF) Apr   A 235.6B | P 237.5B    Â
07:15Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â CPI M/M Apr A 0.10% | C 0.20% | P 0.60%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
07:15Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Apr A -1.00% | C -0.90% | P -1.00%Â Â Â Â Â Â
08:30Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence May A -24.5 | C -15.3 | P -14.7Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
10:00Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â German Factory Orders M/M Mar A 2.20% | C 0.50% | PÂ 0.30% | R 0.60%
12:30Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Building Permits M/M Mar A 4.70% | C 2.30% | P 7.50%Â
For today
23:01   GBP    BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y Apr A 1.30% | C 1.60% | P 1.50%   Â
23:01   GBP    RICS House Price Balance Apr  A -19.00% | C -11.00% | P -10.00% | R -11.00%
1:30Â Â Â Â Â AUDÂ Â Â Â Trade Balance (AUD) Mar A -1.59B | C -1.37B | P -0.48BÂ | R -0.75B
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Continuing running of yesterday’s stories with comments from CitiBank stating they see a 50-70% chance of Greece dropping from the Euro, and Merkel making comments that she expects them to stick to their agreements on austerity measures. Frances new president makes his new speech and aims directly at austerity measures being dumped for measures to grow the economy, to be honest they are not in the same boat as the Med states so either would probably be beneficial however, the market perceptions seem to doubt growth as being a better option than cutting spending first. The Euro reacted to the re-iteration of yesterday’s stories with the same reaction it went down trading from the 1.3065 level steadily declining over the session to hit support at 1.3025 but not stepping away from the level and holding a tight 10 range with 1.3025 as the base. GBP had little reaction to the figures released just after midnight but was dragged slightly lower by the EUR moving from the 1.6197 level to base at 1.6170 EURGBP moved a few tics lower from .80665 down to the 0.8055 level but otherwise had a quiet session over all. AUD trade figures seem to underline the drop in exports perceived to be happening as the Chinese growth continues to drop off, AUD moved from early 1.0213 levels down to below 1.0170 before finding some support from exporter buying again. From there it repeated the EUR and GBP patterns picking up slightly as we move to London. USDJPY moved steadily higher on carry trade buying and speculation about the 79.50/60 bids being larger than the norm, trading from the opening area of 79.85 up to 80.08 before finding minor resistance.
USDJPY
Topside : 80.00-80.30 (medium offers) 80.40-80.70 (light buy stops) 80.80-81.10 (light offers) 81.20-81.50 (medium offers)Â
Downside : 79.50-79.80 (medium sell stops) 79.10-79.40 (medium sell stops) 78.70-79.00 (decent bids) 78.30-78.60 (decent bids)Â
EURUSD
Topside : 1.3070-1.3100 (medium buy stops) 1.3120-1.3150 (light offers) 1.3170-1.3200 (medium offers)
Downside : 1.3020-1.3050 (light bids) 1.2980-1.3010 (mixed net net light bids) 1.2920-1.2950 (light sell stops)
EURJPY
Topside : 104.50-104.80 (medium buy stops) 105.00-105.30 (light buy stops)
Downside : 103.70-104.00 (light sell stops) 103.00-103.30 (light sell stops) AUDUSD
Topside : 1.0220-1.0250 (medium buy stops) 1.0270-1.0300 (light buy stops) 1.0300-1.0330 (light buy stops)
Downside : 1.0130-1.0160 (decent sell stops) 1.0080-1.0110 (medium sell stops)Â
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AUD:
Australia March trade deficit A$1.6 bln
Australia Budget to swing To A$1.5B Surplus In 2012-13 -ABC
Australia government plans surplus budget to bolster image with voters
JPY:
Japan Azumi: Wants France to carry out decisions Already Made
BOJ’s ETF Purchases hit single day record -Nikkei
USD/JPY:
Marubeni close to buying Gavilon for $5.2 bln -source
USD:
Fed’s Lacker: job training, education offer greater benefits than more stimulus
CNY:
China dissident Chen says officials must face justice
GBP:
UK house prices fall at fastest pace for six months in April – RICS
NZD:
New Zealand Govt 9-Month deficit wider than forecast as tax receipts fall
Today’s data
Consensus = C                            Previous  = P
5:45Â Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â SECO Consumer Confidence Apr C -18 | P -19Â Â
10:00   EUR    German Industrial Production M/M Mar  C 0.80% | P -1.30%     Â
12:15Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Housing Starts Apr C 205.0K | P 215.6K
Ranges as of 6am London time
               Bid                      Offer                    High                   Low
USD/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 79.982Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 79.993Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 80.081Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 79.88
EUR/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.30293Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.30309Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.30671Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.3025
EUR/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 104.211Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 104.238Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 104.44Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 104.17
AUD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.01830Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.01850Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0218Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0167
NZD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.79310Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.79330Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7975Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7923
USD/CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.99380Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.99390Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9941Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9924
EUR/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.20126Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.20132Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.20149Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.2012
USD/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.92183Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.92204Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.92202Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9197
GBP/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.61710Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.61740Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.6199Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.617
EUR/GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.80565Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.80580Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.8066Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.80555
Good luck
Andy Harrison