Next 24 hours: Plenty of calendar risk in North American session
Today’s report: Investors feeling better after taking in US inflation data
US core CPI was a little softer and accompanied by a slide in Empire manufacturing. This was enough to keep the US Dollar under some pressure, and enough to inspire renewed demand for stocks on hopes this would effectuate a more accommodative Fed policy track.
Wake-up call
- ECB Minutes
- BOE official
- Added speculation
- employment data
- Strong oil
- Treasury Secretary
- dovish Fed
- Macro themes
Peformance chart: 30-Day Performance vs. US dollar (%)
Suggested reading
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Chart talk: Technical & fundamental highlights
Choose pair:
EURUSD – technical overview
The Euro has been in a multi-month consolidation since bottoming out in 2022. Setbacks have since been exceptionally well supported on dips towards parity, with a higher platform sought out ahead of the next major upside extension. Look for a major bounce in the days ahead and the start to a push back towards the 2023 high at 1.1276. Only a monthly close below 1.0000 negates.EURUSD – fundamental overview
The Euro has been better supported in recent sessions. A lot of this has come from the US side of the equation in light of softer inflation data out of the US this week. On Wednesday, US core CPI came in a little softer, following up on Tuesday's below forecast producer prices. At the same time, the market continues to worry about the impact of Trump trade policies, which has kept the Euro capped into rallies. Key standouts on Thursday’s calendar come from German inflation, UK GDP, industrial production, manufacturing production, trade, and construction output, Eurozone trade, the ECB Minutes, Canada housing starts, US retail sales, initial jobless claims, the Philly Fed, business inventories, and NAHB housing.EURUSD - Technical charts in detail
GBPUSD – technical overview
Signs have emerged of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base after collapsing to a record low in September 2022. The door is now open for the next major upside extension towards the 2018 high at 1.4377. Setbacks should be well supported above 1.2000 on a monthly close basis.GBPUSD – fundamental overview
Softer core US CPI helped to give the Pound some support on Wednesday, though the rally was tempered by an FT article quoting an unnamed BOE official who warned of the need for multiple rate cuts in 2025. Key standouts on Thursday’s calendar come from German inflation, UK GDP, industrial production, manufacturing production, trade, and construction output, Eurozone trade, the ECB Minutes, Canada housing starts, US retail sales, initial jobless claims, the Philly Fed, business inventories, and NAHB housing.USDJPY – technical overview
The market is looking to resume the longer-term uptrend after an intense correction in 2024. A higher low is ideally sought out above 140.00 in favor of a bullish continuation. The October monthly close back above 150.00 strengthens the case for longer-term uptrend resumption.USDJPY – fundamental overview
The Yen extended its recent run of gains on the back of some softer US data, an as expected Japan wholesale inflation report, and speculation the BOJ will go ahead and hike rates when it meets next week. Key standouts on Thursday’s calendar come from German inflation, UK GDP, industrial production, manufacturing production, trade, and construction output, Eurozone trade, the ECB Minutes, Canada housing starts, US retail sales, initial jobless claims, the Philly Fed, business inventories, and NAHB housing.AUDUSD – technical overview
There are signs of the potential formation of a longer-term base with the market trading down into a meaningful longer-term support zone. Only a monthly close below 0.6000 would give reason for rethink. A monthly close back above 0.7000 will take the big picture pressure off the downside and strengthen case for a bottom.AUDUSD – fundamental overview
Australian employment data was less exciting when looking beneath the surface. Indeed, the headline numbers were impressive. But upon closer glance, it was revealed that part-time jobs accounted for most of the new work created. Key standouts on Thursday’s calendar come from German inflation, UK GDP, industrial production, manufacturing production, trade, and construction output, Eurozone trade, the ECB Minutes, Canada housing starts, US retail sales, initial jobless claims, the Philly Fed, business inventories, and NAHB housing.USDCAD – technical overview
A sustained hold above 1.3000 over the past several months signals an end to a period of longer-term bearish consolidation and suggests the market is in the process of carving out a more significant longer-term base. Next key resistance now comes in up into the 1.4500-1.5000 area, exposing a retest of the 2020 high just ahead of 1.4700. Setbacks should be very well supported ahead of 1.3500.USDCAD – fundamental overview
The ongoing bid in the price of oil has been a welcome prop for a very weak Canadian Dollar bothered by a slowdown in the local economy, political uncertainty, and worry around Trump tariff policies. Key standouts on Thursday’s calendar come from German inflation, UK GDP, industrial production, manufacturing production, trade, and construction output, Eurozone trade, the ECB Minutes, Canada housing starts, US retail sales, initial jobless claims, the Philly Fed, business inventories, and NAHB housing.NZDUSD – technical overview
Overall pressure remains on the downside with the market continuing to stall out on runs up into the 0.6500 area. At the same time, there are some signs of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base. Ultimately, a break back above 0.6500 would be required to take the medium-term pressure off the downside and encourage this prospect. A monthly close below 0.5500 will intensify bearish price action.NZDUSD – fundamental overview
There hasn't been much going on in New Zealand to move the local currency. Instead, we saw some selling on comments from incoming US Treasury Secretary Bessent who said the US Dollar would remain the world's reserve currency. Key standouts on Thursday’s calendar come from German inflation, UK GDP, industrial production, manufacturing production, trade, and construction output, Eurozone trade, the ECB Minutes, Canada housing starts, US retail sales, initial jobless claims, the Philly Fed, business inventories, and NAHB housing.US SPX 500 – technical overview
The longer term uptrend remains intact and dips continue to be exceptionally well supported. Critical support comes in at 5679, with only a break back below this level to compromise the structure and open the door for a more significant corrective decline. Until then, the focus remains on a continued push to fresh record highs.US SPX 500 – fundamental overview
Investors are feeling better about a soft landing in the US economy. Moreover, there has been a fresh wave of market optimism in anticipation of a market bullish Trump presidency. It will however be important to keep an eye on inflation, bigger picture economic data and the latest shift in the Fed dot plot. Any of these variables are capable of easily ruffling some feathers and we've already seen a little of this in the aftermath of the latest Fed decision.GOLD (SPOT) – technical overview
The 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, opening the door for fresh record highs and this next major upside extension into the 3000 area. Setbacks should now be well supported above 2500 on a monthly close basis.GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overview
The yellow metal has pushed record highs in recent months with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about inflation, geopolitical risk and a less upbeat global growth outlook. All of this should keep the commodity well supported over the coming months.