Andy Harrison
Good Morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 104.107 | EURUSD 1.21127 | AUDUSD 0.76632 | NZDUSD 0.71943 | USDCAD 1.28034 | USDCHF 0.88859 | GBPUSD 1.36887 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 0500 GMT
Highs | Lows
EURUSD 1.21122 | 1.20823
USDJPY 104.370 | 104.569
GBPUSD 1.37002 | 1.36515
USDCHF 0.89034 | 0.88885
AUDUSD 0.76640 | 0.76213
NZDUSD 0.71631 | 0.71303
USDCAD 1.28350 | 1.2768
EURCHF 1.07630 | 1.07534
EURGBP 0.88547 | 0.88419
EURJPY 126.245 | 125.995
For Today
- GBP: Opening around the 1.3690 level and unable to test the 1.3700 area the market eventually moved away from the spikes towards the 1.3695 area to slowly drift through to make the lows around the 1.3650 level attempting the level a couple of times before holding quietly around the 1.3670 area through to the grey hours, Topside offers through the 1.3750 area and increasing on any move towards the 1.3800 level weak stops on a break through opens up a larger rise with limited stops through the 1.3850 area but opening the 1.41/1.42 over time. Downside bids light through to the 1.3650 area and stronger bids currently being tested with weak stops likely on a dip through light for the moment and stronger bids into the 1.3600 level and increasing on any move to the 1.3550 area.
- JPY: Rising from the early lows around the 104.05 area and pushing quickly through to the 104.30 area with a gradual rise from there to the 104.36 area to make the high before slowly drifting to the 104.25 area for the move into the grey hours, topside offers into the 104.40-60 area with congestion likely to be light and then increasing on any move through the 104.80-105.20 area and weak stops above to push to the 105.50 and more congestion, downside bids light through to the 103.50 level with some bids building in the area with stronger bids moving through the 103.20-102.80 area with importers likely to be happy to buy in the area through to the 100 level before BoJ starts to comment.
- AUD: Opening quietly around the 0.7660 area and ranging through into the Tokyo session slipping through to the 0.7620 area, a limited recovery through to the 0.7650 area was quickly thwarted and sent the market back to the lows over time and a quiet range around the 0.7620 for the move into the grey hours. Stronger bids likely just below the lows and through into the 0.7580 area before weak stops appear opening the market a little through to the 0.7550 area with stronger bids again and possibly continue through to the 0.7500 area. Topside offers light through the 77 cents level and likely to continue through to the 0.7750 with very little interference however beyond that level is likely to see stronger offers the closer the market gets to the 78 cents area and continuing through to the 0.7820 area before stops appear and open a higher move over the next couple of days.
- EUR: As usual a reasonably quiet session for the Euro with early selling from the opening around the 1.2110 area through into the Tokyo session testing the 1.2080 level before rising to the 1.2100 area and then drifting again to hold around the 1.2090 area through into the London session, Downside bids into the 1.2050 area with increasing bids into the 1.2000 level with weak stops on any move through into the 1.1980 level with break out stops a possibility, Topside offers through the 1.2100 level light with the topside likely to remain weak through to the 1.2180 area before some stiffness appears through to the 1.2200 level with very little in stops until 1.2220 level and weak stops easily absorbed in stronger resistance.
Overnight News
CNY:
Shanghai adds advanced chip production to its 2021 priority list along with Tesla, Digital currency – SMP
PBoC is expected to offer liquidity before CNY holiday – BBG
AUD/CNY:
China, Australia relations: Canberra hits back at XI Jinping’s bullying remarks amid trade dispute – SMP
AUD:
Australian Miners poised to gain from Biden’s energy makeover – AFR
GBP:
UK High streets emptying at the fastest pace on record – BBG
KHR:
Coronavirus: Cambodian scientists find close match for pathogen in samples collected in 2010 – SMP
GBP/SEK/EUR:
Dire European situation may delay vaccine arrival – AFR
Today’s Data
NZD Trade Balance MoM (DEC) A 17m | P 252m | R 290m
NZD Trade Balance YoY (DEC) A 2,940m | P 3,260m | R 330m
JPY Retail Sales YoY (DEC) A -0.3% | C -0.4% | P 0.6%
0800 CHF World Economic Forum Annual Meetings
0800 EUR ECB’s Enria Speaks
1300 EUR German CPI MoM (JAN) A | C 0.4% | P 0.5%
1330 USD GDP QoQ (Q4) A | C 4.0% | P 33.4%
1330 USD Goods Trade Balance (DEC) A | C 2.4% | P 3.7%
1330 USD Initial Jobless Claims A | C 875k | P 900k
1330 USD Retail Inventories Ex Auto (DEC) A | P 0.2%
1330 CAD Building Permits MoM (DEC) A | C -5.0% | P 12.9%
1330 USD New home sales (DEC) A | C 865k | P 841k
1330 USD New Home Sales MoM (DEC) A | C 1.9% | P -11.0%
1500 EUR German BuBa Wuermeling Speaks
1715 EUR ECB’s Schnabel Speaks
2330 JPY Jobs/Applications Ratio (DEC) A | C 1.06 | P 1.06
2330 JPY Tokyo Core CPI YoY (JAN) A | C -0.6% | P -0.9%
2330 JPY CPI Tokyo Ex Food and Energy MoM (JAN) A | P -0.1%
2350 JPY Industrial Production MoM (DEC) A | C -1.5% | P -0.5%
Harry Hindsight
- GBP: Opening around the 1.3735-40 with a slow rise through to the 1.3750 area for the early Tokyo session before drifting off through to hold around the opening areas with minor dips through to the 1.3725 area before rising for the move into the grey hours setting the highs for the day testing through to the 1.3760 level area before drifting back to the opening area into the London start, holding quietly through to midmorning before dipping lower again as tensions between the UK and EU increase over the allocation of vaccines ordered a week ago seem to need to be delivered today it would seem, the market dipped to the 1.3700 area and once the NYK session opened the market dropped through to the 1.3685 area holding before dipping for the second time to test to the 1.3660 areas before bouncing and slowly rising through the close in London to almost reach the opening levels before drifting back in a loose market to the close around the 1.3690 level.
- JPY: Illiquid movement on the opening and testing quickly to above the 103.70 area before holding quietly through into the Tokyo session a little below the 103.60 area before returning to the 103.70 area to range around the level through to the London hours, a steady rise from the London session to steadily push into the NYK session pushing towards the 104.20 area and then ranging quietly around the 104.10 areas and testing the 104.20 for the final run before holding the 104.10 area to the close.
- AUD: Opening around the 0.7750 level and the move into the Tokyo session saw the market rising before slowly drifting through the 0.7730 area and ranging around the level through into the London session, London session saw a little lower with the market holding for a short period before dropping in a steady incline through to the 0.7680, the market triggered some weak stops and then dipping through to the 0.7640 area for the low of the day, bouncing back and managing to touch the 0.7700 level before drifting to the close just above the lows.
- EUR: Ranging around the 1.2165 area and struggling through the Asian session for a direction drifting through to the 1.2155 level and unable to break above the 1.2170 level early high, the move through into the London session saw the Euro quickly push to the 1.2120 area and after a brief range around the 1.2125 level before drifting slowly through to the 1.2100 level and expected bids quickly moved and the market tested the 1.2060 area before slowly starting to rise through the 1.2100 level and ranging around the figure level through to the close unable to truly break the 1.2120 areas.
Premiership Results
AUD CPI QoQ (Q4) A 0.9% | C 0.7% | P 1.6%
AUD CPI YoY (Q4) A 0.9% | C 0.7% | P 0.7%
AUD NAB Business Confidence (DEC) A 4 | P 12
AUD Trimmed Mean CPI QoQ (Q4) A 0.4% | C 0.4% | P 0.4%
EUR GfK German Consumer Climate (FEB) A -15.6 | C -7.9 | P -7.5
CHF World Economic Forum Annual Meetings
USD Core Durable Goods Orders MoM (DEC) A 0.7% | C 0.5% | P 0.8%
USD Durable Goods Orders MoM (DEC) A 0.2% | C 0.9% | P 1.2%
USD Crude Oil Inventories A -9.910m | C 0.43m | P 4.351m
USD FOMC Statement
USD Fed Interest Rate Decision A 0.25% | C 0.25% | P 0.25%
USD FOMC Press Conference
Best Regards
Andy
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