10 November 2022 Ailing crypto market will need to contend with US inflation too
LMAX Digital performance
LMAX Digital volumes put in another strong performance on Wednesday. Total notional volume for Wednesday came in at $1.6 billion, 250% above 30-day average volume. Bitcoin volume printed $1 billion on Wednesday, 310% above 30-day average volume. Ether came in at $427 million, 169% above 30-day average volume. Looking at average position size over the past 30 days, we’re seeing average bitcoin position size at $6,696 and average position size for ether at 2,876. Volatility is finally shooting up off yearly and multi-month lows. We’re looking at average daily ranges in bitcoin and ether of $968 and $109 respectively.
Latest industry news
Fallout from the FTX implosion has been the big story this week, with crypto assets down hard across the board as a consequence. We have since seen some stabilization in prices following an intense drop, and the focus will now shift to ripple effects from the fiasco. Multicoin Capital and Galaxy Digital are two larger investment funds in the space, both of which have released their exposure. Multicoin has 10% of their total account under management with FTX, while Galaxy Digital has said their total exposure sits at $78.4 million, representing less than 5% of their accounts under management. Also in response to the event, we’ve seen several crypto exchanges come out committing to more transparency, which could also be helping to limit additional fallout. But there is some worry that additional downside pressure in the price of bitcoin could take us down to levels that might compromise positions of larger, public figures in the space, like Michael Saylor’s positions at MicroStrategy. With all that said, the charts have been warning of such a decline for many weeks now and we have consistently highlighted this risk following an extended period of consolidation off what had been the yearly low at $17,600. In our view, there was already risk that if we took out $17,600, it could easily open a fresh downside extension towards a measured move objective at $10k. And as much as the market will need to continue to monitor developments around fallout from FTX, it will also need to be worrying about today’s US inflation data. If the data comes in above forecast, given how things have been correlating in 2022, this could open additional downside pressure on crypto assets.
LMAX Digital metrics
Price performance last 30 days avg. vs USD (%)
Total volumes last 30 days ($bn)
BTCUSD volumes last 30 days ($bn)
BTCUSD avg. trade size last 30 days ($k)
ETHUSD avg. trade size last 30 days ($k)
Average daily range
BTCUSD $968 ETHUSD $109
Tweets Social media
@CoinDesk The difference between the value of Grayscale’s bitcoin trust compared to bitcoin reached record levels of 36.7%.
@TheBlock__ FTX tells investors bankruptcy is likely without fresh cash.
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