15 June 2023
Fed dot plot shakes crypto market
LMAX Digital performance

LMAX Digital volumes put in another impressive showing on Wednesday. Total notional volume for Wednesday came in at $448 million, 45% above 30-day average volume.

Bitcoin volume printed $246 million on Wednesday, 49% above 30-day average volume. Ether volume printed $150 million, 59% above 30-day average volume.

Looking at average position size over the past 30 days, we’re seeing average bitcoin position size at $6,870 and average position size for ether at 2,916.

Volatility is showing signs of picking back up in recent sessions after trading down to the lowest levels since earlier this year. We’re looking at average daily ranges in bitcoin and ether of $848 and $60 respectively.

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The Fed policy decision has come and gone. Much like we had anticipated, we are seeing a wave of risk off flow in the aftermath, opening more downside pressure on crypto assets.

Heading into the decision, we had highlighted the market had priced in so much of an expectation for a dovish communication, that anything else would prove to be a let down.

Indeed the Fed went ahead and paused on rates. But what jarred the market was the revelation of a dot plot showing rates higher looking out. To the market’s surprise the Fed has two more rate hikes priced in 2023.

The net result is worry about higher rates and the strain on growth, which in turn, has started to open profit taking in stocks and renewed demand for the US Dollar as yield differentials move back in favor of the Buck.

And so, cryptocurrencies have fallen victim to this as well, opening the door for deeper setbacks in the sessions ahead. But as per our technical insights in today’s update, any additional setbacks in the price of bitcoin should be well supported ahead of $22k.

It’s also important to take the recent slide with a grain of salt. Bitcoin and ether are still standout outperformers against the US Dollar YTD versus all other major traditional assets.

LMAX Digital metrics
Price performance
last 30 days avg. vs USD (%)
Total volumes
last 30 days ($bn)
BTCUSD volumes
last 30 days ($bn)
BTCUSD avg. trade size
last 30 days ($k)
ETHUSD avg. trade size
last 30 days ($k)
Average daily range
BTCUSD
$848
ETHUSD
$60
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