LMAX Digital volumes produced another day of solid results. Total notional volume for Tuesday came in at $274 million, 26% above 30-day average volume.

Bitcoin volume printed $125 million, 17% above 30-day average volume. Ether volume came in at $78 million, 41% above 30-day average volume.

Looking at average position size over the past 30 days, we’re seeing average bitcoin position size at $7,309 and average position size for ether at $2,292.

Volatility continues to trend lower and remains exceptionally subdued. We’re looking at average daily ranges in bitcoin and ether of $1,934 and $75 respectively.

The crypto market continues to display resilience, particularly when viewed through the lens of recent macro developments.

Bitcoin continues to consolidate its latest run of gains, holding comfortably above key psychological levels despite a hotter-than-expected US CPI print and a renewed rise in geopolitical tensions tied to the Middle East.

This price behavior reinforces the view that crypto—led by bitcoin—is increasingly being treated as a macro asset rather than a purely speculative one.

From a macro driver perspective, the dominant forces remain familiar: inflation, rates, and geopolitics. The upside surprise in US inflation and the associated repricing toward a “higher-for-longer” Fed path would typically be a headwind for risk assets, yet Bitcoin has largely absorbed this shock.

This suggests that competing narratives—namely Bitcoin’s evolving role as a hedge against monetary debasement and geopolitical instability—are offsetting the drag from tighter financial conditions.

At the same time, geopolitical risk is playing an increasingly direct role in crypto price action. Ongoing US-Iran tensions and risks around energy supply are feeding into broader market volatility, but Bitcoin has continued to hold its range even as traditional markets show signs of strain.

On the flow and structural side, institutional participation remains a key pillar of support. Spot ETF inflows continue to absorb supply, while broader capital trends point to steady accumulation and a still-muted leverage environment—suggesting the recovery still has plenty of room to run.

That said, Ethereum continues to lag Bitcoin on a relative basis, with softer flows and weaker positioning dynamics, keeping the ETHBTC cross under pressure.

We believe the next positive catalyst will come in the form of a wave of ETH outperformance. Look for a clear break back above $2,400 to get things going.

We see this as a real possibility given the strong institutional adoption trends we’re witnessing, with a meaningful portion of future inflows likely to channel through Ethereum.

Finally, policy and political developments remain an important swing factor. Markets are closely watching the evolution of US crypto regulation alongside the broader geopolitical backdrop, including US-China engagement.

For now, the key takeaway is that crypto is holding up well in a challenging macro environment—but sustaining upside from here will likely require either a clearer policy tailwind or a renewed easing in global financial conditions.