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FX & Crypto Insights – Institutional thought leadership

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30 September 2026
Strong dollar meets stronger crypto case
 
 
LMAX Digital performance
 
 

LMAX Digital volumes have been holding up well this week. Total notional volume for Tuesday came in at $1.5 billion.

Breaking it down per coin, bitcoin volume came in at $1.4 billion. Ether volume came in at $96 million.

Looking at average position size over the past 30 days, we’re seeing average bitcoin position size at $8,648 and average position size for ether at $2,636.

Volatility has been more elevated of late but is in the process of consolidating. We’re looking at average daily ranges in bitcoin and ether of $2,095 and $87 respectively.

 
Latest industry news
 
 

Crypto continues to stand out as the month and quarter draw to a close, with bitcoin consolidating a strong recovery and ETH retaining support despite a more hesitant near-term performance.

ETF demand has helped underpin both assets, although the pace of inflows has moderated, leaving the market balancing sustained investor interest against profit-taking after the rally.

The dollar backdrop makes that resilience particularly compelling. At a time when US currency strength has weighed on much of the major FX complex, crypto has demonstrated an ability to attract demand on its own merits.

We see this as an encouraging sign of a maturing asset class with distinct sources of value and a growing role in portfolio construction, even if its diversification benefits remain dependent on market conditions.

The regulatory picture also offers grounds for optimism. The setback to the CLARITY Act has not brought progress to a halt, with the SEC and CFTC advancing initiatives under their existing authority.

Measures supporting tokenized securities and access to regulated derivatives suggest a more constructive direction, although proposals and conditional exemptions still need to translate into a durable framework.

Adoption provides another foundation for the constructive outlook. Bitcoin’s investment case continues to benefit from ETF participation, while corporate accumulation of ETH highlights institutional interest in Ethereum.

These developments reinforce the view that demand extends beyond short-term speculation, helping explain why the market has absorbed setbacks without losing its broader recovery.

Looking ahead, we see a potential easing in dollar strength as an additional catalyst rather than a prerequisite for further gains. A sustained reversal, particularly alongside softer US yields, could improve financial conditions and strengthen demand for bitcoin and ETH.

That turn remains a scenario rather than a certainty, with US inflation data and geopolitical risks still capable of sustaining dollar demand. The encouraging point is that crypto has already shown resilience while that headwind remains in place.

 
 
LMAX Digital metrics
Price performance
last 30 days avg. vs USD (%)
Total volumes
last 30 days ($bn)
BTCUSD volumes
last 30 days ($bn)
BTCUSD avg. trade size
last 30 days ($k)
ETHUSD avg. trade size
last 30 days ($k)
Average daily range
BTCUSD
$2,095
ETHUSD
$87
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