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FX & Crypto Insights – Institutional thought leadership

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1 October 2026
When the Buck tires, crypto should find another gear
 
 
LMAX Digital performance
 
 

LMAX Digital volumes lightened a little on Wednesday but were still healthy overall. Total notional volume came in at $1.3 billion.

Breaking it down per coin, bitcoin volume came in at $1.1 billion. Ether volume came in at $128 million.

Looking at average position size over the past 30 days, we’re seeing average bitcoin position size at $8,885 and average position size for ether at $2,857.

Volatility has been more elevated of late but is in the process of consolidating. We’re looking at average daily ranges in bitcoin and ether of $2,139 and $87 respectively.

 
Latest industry news
 
 

Crypto enters the final quarter on an encouraging footing, with bitcoin’s strong quarterly recovery reinforcing confidence in the broader asset class.

Yesterday’s softer US inflation report offered further support by tempering expectations for another immediate Fed hike, although renewed dollar strength and elevated Treasury yields remain important near-term constraints.

For us, the more compelling story is how well the market has absorbed those constraints. Against geopolitical uncertainty, regulatory delays and powerful dollar demand, crypto has demonstrated an ability to attract investment on its own merits.

We see that resilience as evidence of an asset class developing firmer foundations, with bitcoin’s investment appeal and Ethereum’s role in digital finance providing distinct reasons for investors to participate.

The dollar component is particularly significant. Crypto’s recovery has taken place while dollar strength has tightened financial conditions and challenged other markets.

If bitcoin and ETH can hold their footing against that backdrop, an eventual easing of the dollar headwind could give the recovery an additional source of momentum.

We continue to view the dollar’s advance as a rally within a broader secular downtrend and believe much of the hawkish Fed outlook is already reflected in market expectations.

Today’s renewed strength shows that a turning point has yet to be confirmed, but our broader view remains that the scope for sustained dollar appreciation is becoming more limited. A narrowing US yield advantage could encourage investors to move capital beyond dollar holdings.

For bitcoin and ETH, the benefit would come through easier financial conditions, a lower opportunity cost of holding assets outside cash and potentially stronger appetite for risk. That could bring broader portfolio flows alongside crypto’s own adoption-driven demand.

Having demonstrated resilience through exceptional headwinds, we believe the market is well positioned to benefit if those headwinds begin to ease.

 
 
LMAX Digital metrics
Price performance
last 30 days avg. vs USD (%)
Total volumes
last 30 days ($bn)
BTCUSD volumes
last 30 days ($bn)
BTCUSD avg. trade size
last 30 days ($k)
ETHUSD avg. trade size
last 30 days ($k)
Average daily range
BTCUSD
$2,139
ETHUSD
$87
Tweets Social media

@Cointelegraph
Bitcoin beat stocks and gold in September, rising about 7% while the S&P 500 stayed flat and gold fell over 6%.

@TheBlockCo
Lloyds has completed a live pilot with Visa to settle $750,000 of cross-border payment obligations in USDC.

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