Andy Harrison
Good morning,
Â
NYK Close
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.33019
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.59577
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 82.459
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.90624
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.03847
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.81386
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.99662
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.20542
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.8336
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 109.678
 Â
Harry Hindsight
Well yesterday’s Italian bonds auction didn.t quiet go to plan triggering a return to uncertainty’s for the future, more concerns on the Greek front with S&P’s Kraemer making comments about further restructuring in the future, Euro’s moved down again not so dramatically but by NYK opening we were testing below 1.3260 and looking for fresh ideas, the market stabilised at this point and started to range in an ever decreasing channel until late in the session were profit takers moved in and took it back to the 1.3300 level no major surprises on the data. Cable suffered from the same move down as the Euro not as deep but once it hit 1.5860 in mirroring the Euro it had a steeper climb back up exceeding the day’s highs and continuing to just short of 1.5960 it would seem that some safe haven flow materialised moving EURGBP down 40tics or so but over all a quiet day. AUD stabilised above the 1.0300 level after seeing fresh buying of EURAUD from funds as a move away from the commodity currency, once it had hit that level it became attached to the Euro as US figures failed to sparkle moving steadily back above the 1.0380 level to settle around yesterday’s lows. USDJPY saw some last gasp repatriation going through and exporter hedges being put on before year end testing down through 82.00 to prices seen at the beginning of the month, now that is it of the way one suspects that a stronger Yen will come under pressure again.
Yesterday’s premiership results
Actual                  Consensus                        Previous             Revised Â
JPY     Retail Sales Y/Y Feb   Â
3.50%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.40%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.90%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.80%
NZD    NBNZ Business Confidence Mar          Â
33.8Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 28Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
EUR    German Unemployment Change Mar     Â
-18KÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -10KÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0KÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â
EUR    German Unemployment Rate Mar         Â
6.70%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 6.80%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 6.80%Â Â
GBP    Mortgage Approvals Feb         Â
49.0KÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 57.2KÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 58.7KÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 57.9K
GBP    M4 Money Supply M/M Feb     Â
1.90%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.60%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.50%
GBP    M4 Money Supply Y/Y Feb      Â
-3.40%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -1.80%Â
GBP    Index of Services 3M/3M Jan   Â
0.30%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.30%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.00%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.10%
EURÂ Â Â Â Eurozone Consumer Confidence Mar FÂ Â
-19.1Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -19Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -19Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
EUR    Eurozone Economic Confidence Mar    Â
94.4Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 94.5Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 94.4Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 94.5
EUR    Eurozone Industrial Confidence Mar     Â
-7.2Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -5.8Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -5.8Â Â Â Â Â Â
EUR    Eurozone Services Confidence Mar      Â
-0.3Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.8Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.9Â Â Â Â Â Â
CAD    Industrial Product Price M/M Feb         Â
0.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.50%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.30%Â Â
CAD    Raw Materials Price Index M/M Feb      Â
-0.50%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.50%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.10%Â Â
USDÂ Â Â Â GDP (Annualized) Q4 FÂ
3.00%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 3.00%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 3.00%Â Â
USDÂ Â Â Â GDP Price Index Q4 FÂ Â
0.90%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.90%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.90%Â Â
USD    Initial Jobless Claims   Â
359KÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 350KÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 348KÂ Â Â Â
USD    Natural Gas Storage    Â
57BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 49BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 11BÂ Â Â Â Â
Â
For today
JPY
Topside: 82.50-70 (mixed , 82.80-83.00 (medium stops), 83.50-70 (medium-large stop buyers)
Downside: 81.80-81.90 (light two-way interest), 81.65-85 (medium stop sellers), 81.40-60 (good two-way interest)
EUR
Topside: 1.3380-1.3410 (light staggered offers) 1.3420 (weak stop buyers)
Downside: 1.3240-60 (light stop sellers), 1.3205-25 (light two-way interest), 1.3175-95 (light stop sellers)
EURJPY
Topside: Thin until stop zone at 111.55-75 (medium), 112.05-25 (light stop buyers)
Downside: 108.65-95 (light bids every few tics), 108.05-25 (light bids)AUD
Topside: 1.0405-1.0415 (light- medium stop buyers), 1.0425-45 (light offers), 1.0485-1.0505 (light offers)
Downside: 1.0345-55 (light stop sellers), 1.0285-1.0305 (good two-way interest), 1.0255-75 (medium stops)
A surprise rise in CPI of 0.1% triggered some Yen buying pushing the USDJPY down below the 82.00 level again but running into some support it backed off quickly back up to 82.25 before a slow drift towards the level again over the rest of the session. Euro’s saw a bit of a short squeeze triggering stop losses as we moved above the 1.3340 level moving close to the 1.3360 level before coming to a stop. Cable followed slowly but having done well towards the NYK close found itself running out of space as it reached the resistance level, AUD continues to push up having failed on the breakout to the downside tagging a long for a move above 1.0400 before meeting sellers. All together quiet day even if the ranges look a little more impressive than normal.
Actual                  Consensus                        Previous             Revised Â
NZD    Building Permits M/M Feb        Â
-6.70%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.00%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 8.30%Â Â
GBP    GfK Consumer Sentiment Mar  Â
-31Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -29Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -29Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
JPY     Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing PMI Mar Â
51.1Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 50.5Â Â Â Â Â
JPY     Unemployment Rate Feb         Â
4.50%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 4.60%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 4.60%Â Â
JPY     Household Spending Y/Y Feb  Â
2.30%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.50%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -2.30%Â
JPY     Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Mar          Â
-0.30%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.30%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.30%Â
JPY     National CPI Core Y/Y Feb       Â
0.10%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.10%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.10%Â
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Industrial Production M/M Feb PÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
-1.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.30%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.90%Â Â
JPY     Housing Starts Y/Y Feb           Â
7.5%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -1.10%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -1.10%Â
JPY
JPY: Japan Govt OKs Tax Hike Bill After Bruising Ruling Party Battle
JPY: Japan Post Bank to boost bond holdings next year -agency
JPY: Japan Feb Core CPI +0.1% On Year; Mkt Expected -0.1%
JPY: Japan Feb jobless rate falls to 4.5%t
JPY: Japan Feb Indus Output -1.2% On Mo; Mkt Expected +1.3%
JPY: Japan Feb household spending rises to 2.3% vs. yr. ago
JPY: Japan March manufacturing PMI rises to 51.1 from 50.5
JPY/KRW: Japan orders to intercept N.Korea missile if it poses threat
JPY/KRW/AUD: POSCO, Marubeni lead $3.6 bln investment in Australia iron ore project
Today’s data
Consensus                          Previous Â
7.00     EUR    German Retail Sales M/M Feb              Â
1.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -1.60%Â
7:00     CHF     KOF Leading Indicator Mar                  Â
0.07Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.12Â Â Â Â
9:00     EUR    Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Mar           Â
2.50%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 2.70%Â Â
12:30   CAD    GDP M/M Jan             Â
0.10%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.40%Â Â
12:30   USD    Personal Income Feb               Â
0.40%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.30%Â Â
12:30   USD    Personal Spending Feb           Â
0.60%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.20%Â Â
12:30   USD    PCE Deflator Y/Y Feb             Â
2.30%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 2.40%Â Â
12:30   USD    PCE Core M/M Feb                 Â
0.10%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.20%Â Â
12:30   USD    PCE Core Y/Y Feb                  Â
1.90%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.90%Â Â
13:45   USD    Chicago PMI Mar                     Â
63Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 64Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
13:55Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â U. of Michigan Confidence Mar FÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
74.8Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 74.3Â Â Â Â Â
Ranges as of 6am London time
                              Bid                        Offer                    High                      Low
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.33555Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.33567Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.33600Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.32949
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +82.044Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +82.059Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +82.508Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +81.830
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +109.576Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +109.607Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +109.890Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +109.049
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.90244Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.90256Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.90668Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.90210
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.598Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â =1.5990Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.5990Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.5952
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.0403Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.0405Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.0415Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.0367
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.8198Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.8199Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.8200Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.8165
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.9975Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.9977Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.9981Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.9953
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.20523Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.20550Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.20580Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +1.20520
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.83520Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.83540Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.83590Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â +0.83350
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