Andy Harrison
Good morning,
NYK Close
USDJPY 79.642 | EURUSD 1.29299 | EURJPY 102.975 | AUDUSD 1.00512 | NZDUSD 0.7852 | USDCAD 1.00235 | EURCHF 1.20106 | USDCHF 0.92888 | GBPUSD 1.61286 | EURGBP 0.80168
Harry Hindsight
Greek politicians run round trying to forge alliances to form a new government that’s probably doomed to failure, and worries that it’s on course to try and duck terms and conditions amazing that. While German yields fell to record lows Spanish 10yrs rose 16 bps as investors follow one another to safe havens, add to which Germany’s trade balance grew more than expected to 13.7B. Euro’s struggled throughout the sessions holding its own for a while before renewed selling in NYK kicked in sending it below 1.2916 from Asian highs above 1.3000 however although short term take profit entered the market during later NYK it still failed to really push that much higher and slipped back towards the close. GBP mixed for Cable with Euro’s dragging the GBP lower with its decline, however, from the start of NYK GBP was seen as a safe haven and renewed buying interest especially against the Euro was seen entering the market taking if from its lows to close to Asian highs just below 1.6160 area. AUD as with the Euro, Oz was on the back foot throughout the session with an initial line in the sand of 1.0050 with decent bids showing up this was eventually put to bed just before the NYK session got started and once it was further selling was seen from weak carry trade longs a move down towards the next support level of 1.0000 remains intact as it failed to push through supposed barrier trading. USDJPY having pushed against the 80.00 level during Asia the rest of the day was taken up with safe haven trding and JPY strengthening
Yesterday’s premiership results
Actual = A | Consensus=C | Previous=P | Revised=RÂ
23:01Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â BRC Sales Like-For-Like Y/Y Apr A -3.30% | C 0.60% | P 1.30%Â Â
05:00Â Â Â JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Leading Index Mar (P) A 96.6 | C 96.9 | P 96.3 | R 96
06:00Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â German Trade Balance (EUR) Mar A 13.7B | C 13.4B | P 13.6B | R 13.7B
14:00Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Wholesale Inventories Mar A 0.30% | C 0.60% | P 0.90%
14:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories A 3.7M | C 2.0M | P 2.8MÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
For today
22:30Â Â Â NZDÂ Â Â Â Business Manufacturing Index Apr A 48 | C 54.5 | P 53.8
23:50Â Â Â JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Current Account Balance (JPY) Mar A 0.79T | CÂ Â 0.65T | P 0.85T | A 0.86T
1:30Â Â Â Â Â AUDÂ Â Â Â Employment Change Apr A 15.5K | C -5.0K | P 44.0K | R 37.6K
1:30Â Â Â Â Â AUDÂ Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Apr A 4.90% | C 5.30% | P 5.20%Â Â Â
5:00Â Â Â Â Â JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Eco Watchers Survey: Current Apr A 52.5 | P 51.8Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
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Initial selling in the Euro’s was met by small option protection which sufficed to hold the market until the AUD numbers appeared taking the Euro from its lows of 1.2924 up to the 1.2956 level in the run up to London. GBP traded generally upwards in a tight 20 tic range with a move lower on GBPAUD selling during the period after the numbers 1.6124/44 more or less puts it into perspective. AUD was the move of the day. While the numbers are decent they are employment numbers are a lagging number, so reflect what has been and not what is to come, one would expect these numbers to begin changing as the world recession cramps China and its use of Oz raw materials diminishes but for the moment the market took AUD from 1.0060 to 1.0120 in quick order as the market struggled to see the numbers for what they were seasonally adjusted as one Oz guy said they’re just smoke and mirrors, one suspects it’s a minor blip on the road below parity. USDJPY kept to a very tight range moving from the 79.60 level to 79.76 with cross AUDJPY buying only to slip back to the 79.60 level as we moved towards London.
AUD:
Australia jobs jump past expectations in April
CNY:
China April exports up 4.9 pct y/y, surplus $18.4 bln
EUR/CNY:
China Investment Stops Buying Europe Debt on Crisis Concern
EUR:
German CSU Party Official Urges Halt To Greece Aid – Report
JPY:
Japan Current account surplus improves on exports
BOJ Shirai: Need To Watch Global Markets As Uncertainty Remains
Japan April bank loans up 0.3% YoY
NZD: NZ manufacturing slides in April – survey
NZ housing market resumes gradual climb in April QV
SGD:
Singapore detailed Q1 GDP data set for May 17
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Today’s data
Consensus = C                            Previous  = P
 8:00    EUR    ECB Monthly Bulletin                                       Â
8:30Â Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Industrial Production M/M Mar C -0.30% | P 0.40%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
8:30Â Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Industrial Production Y/Y Mar C -2.60%Â | P-2.30%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
8:30Â Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Manufacturing Production M/M Mar C 0.50% | P -1.00%Â
8:30Â Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Manufacturing Production Y/Y Mar C -1.30% | P -1.40%Â
11:00Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â BoE Rate Decision C 0.50% | P 0.50%Â Â
11:00Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â BoE Asset Purchase Target (GBP) C 325B | P 325BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â
12:30Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â New Housing Price Index M/M Mar C 0.10% | P 0.30%Â Â Â
12:30Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â International Merchandise Trade (CAD) Mar C 0.55B | PÂ Â 0.29BÂ Â Â
12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Import Price Index M/M Apr C -0.20% | P 1.30%Â
12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Trade Balance Mar C -$50.0B | P -$46.0BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims C 370K | P 365KÂ Â
14:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage P 28BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â
18:00Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Monthly Budget Statement Apr C 30.0B | P -198.2BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â
Ranges as of 6am London time
               Bid                      Offer                    High                   Low
USD/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 79.670Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 79.682Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 79.771Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 79.608
EUR/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.29481Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.29495Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.2957Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.2924
EUR/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 103.158Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 103.184Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 103.35Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 102.95
AUD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.00980Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.00990Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.012Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0039
NZD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.78600Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.78610Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7877Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7829
USD/CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.00120Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.00130Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0026Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0005
EUR/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.20113Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.20116Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.20129Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.20101
USD/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.92751Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.92773Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.92918 Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.92715
GBP/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.61360Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.61390Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.6151Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.6124
EUR/GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.80235 Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.80250 Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.8026Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.8001
Good luckÂ
Andy HarrisonÂ