The dollar’s ongoing bear market is expected to drive the euro higher, with one major bank predicting it could reach 1.20 to 1.23 by year-end, fueled by faster U.S. interest rate declines compared to other G10 nations. At the ECB’s Sintra forum from June 30 to July 2, central bankers will discuss monetary policy adjustments amid uncertainties tied to Trump’s policies. French Finance Minister Eric Lombard expressed optimism about securing a trade deal with the U.S. before July 9, potentially involving increased European purchases of American LNG. Meanwhile, Ukraine faces escalating Russian missile and drone attacks, with Russia pushing territorial demands and proposing further talks in Istanbul.

Japan’s Chief Trade Negotiator Akazawa and US Commerce Secretary Lutnick met last Friday but made no significant progress, reaffirming their positions on US tariffs while committing to further talks, with Akazawa extending his US visit. Markets are focused on the upcoming BOJ Tankan Survey, expected to show softened business sentiment due to US 25% tariffs on autos and steel, high food prices, and modest capital expenditure growth for large firms, with potential Yen and Nikkei gains if results exceed expectations. Recent data revealed weaker-than-expected industrial production for May, signaling a fragile economic recovery and ongoing challenges from trade tensions and weak demand, which may keep the BOJ cautious about tightening policy.

Australia’s commodity export earnings dropped 7% to A$385 billion due to weak iron ore and natural gas prices, despite high gold prices, with further declines expected over the next two years due to trade barriers and slowing global growth. Inflation in May fell to 2.1%, below expectations, prompting economists to predict an earlier Reserve Bank of Australia rate cut in July, with markets anticipating three cuts this year to a terminal rate of around 2.85%-3.10%. The Australian dollar is strengthening against the US dollar, supported by expectations of US Federal Reserve easing, reduced Middle East tensions, and a new US-China trade deal boosting risk currencies. Key upcoming data includes June inflation and May private sector credit figures.