Pound, Loonie Volatility Expected To Pick Up Wednesday

GBPUSD – technical overview

The market has found minor relief off 18 month lows in the form of a short-term consolidation. However, overall, the downtrend remains firmly intact, with any upside seen well capped below previous support at 1.5485. Look for a lower top ahead of the next major downside extension below 1.5035 and towards the 2013 base at 1.4815. Only back above 1.5500 compromises the bearish structure.

• R2 1.5270 – 14Jan high – Medium
• R1 1.5200 - 20Jan high – Medium
• S1 1.5035 – 8Jan/2015 low  – Strong
• S2 1.5000 – Psychological  – Strong

GBPUSD – fundamental overview

The Pound is likely to get most of the attention on Wednesday, with market participants digesting UK jobs data and the BoE Minutes. The unemployment change is forecast at -25K versus -26.9 previous, with the rate seen at 5.9% versus 6.0% previous. But irrespective of the jobs data, if the BoE Minutes shows a unanimous decision to leave rates unchanged, we could see renewed downside pressure in the UK currency. Dealers report heavy sell-stops below 1.5000, with no decent demand on a break until the 1.4800-1.4850 area. Offers cited into the 1.5250-1.5300 area.

USDJPY – technical overview

The market remains locked within a very well defined uptrend, with setbacks expected to be supported on dips. The recent correction off fresh 7-year highs at 121.85 has stalled out at 115.55 and a fresh higher low is now sought ahead of the next major upside extension back through 121.85 and towards the 125.00 area further up. Only a daily close back under 115.55 would delay the bullish structure.

• R2 119.97 – 8Jan high – Strong
• R1 118.87 – 20Jan high – Medium
• S1 116.92 – 19Jan low – Medium
• S2 115.55 – 16Dec low – Strong

USDJPY – fundamental overview

Short covering has been the name of the game in Japan on Wednesday. The Yen has recovered a nice amount after the BOJ put an end to chatter of a cut in the deposit rate and left rates unchanged in a 8-1 vote. Moreover, Governor Kuroda remained steadfast in his calls for 2% inflation by the end of 2015, while also embracing the positive economic benefits from lower oil prices. Still overall, any Yen appreciation is expected to continue to find offers into rallies, with the more prominent central bank divergence theme and discouraging Japanese fundamentals driving the price action.

EURCHF – technical overview

The market is attempting to settle in a bit following a historic collapse last Thursday, which saw the price drop off from above 1.2000 all the way down to record lows around 0.8500. We have since seen a range take form, with the key levels to watch above and below coming in at 1.0600 and 0.9710 respectively. Look for a break on either side to determine the next key directional move.

• R2 1.0600 – Range high – Strong
• R1 1.0300 – Figure – Medium
• S1 0.9920 – 19Jan low – Medium
• S2 0.9710 – 15Jan Range low– Strong

EURCHF – fundamental overview

Markets are still trying to recover from the SNB bombshell, after the central bank abandoned its defense of the EURCHF 1.2000 floor and moved further into negative rate policy. The stress of defending the floor in a world of uncertainty and diverging central bank policy proved too much of a challenge for the SNB. Still, the reaction has been severe and investors will need to reassess the benefits of this flight to safety play. It will now be interesting to see how the Franc responds once the ECB event risk is out of the way, and what actions, if any, the SNB takes going forward.

AUDUSD – technical overview

A correction is underway after the market stalled ahead of the critical psychological barrier at 0.8000. Still, the downtrend remains firmly intact with a fresh lower top sought out below 0.8500 in favour of the next major downside extension through 0.8000 and towards 0.7500. Ultimately, only back above 0.8541 would compromise the bearish structure.

• R2 0.8375 – 11Dec high – Medium
• R1 0.8295 - 15Jan high – Strong
• S1 0.8133 – 15Jan low – Medium
• S2 0.8033 – 7Jan low/2015 low – Strong

AUDUSD – fundamental overview

Relatively in line China growth data this week, last week’s solid Aussie employment and a resurgence in demand for gold, are all helping to keep the Australian Dollar supported on dips for now. Still, Fed policy divergence and reduction in global risk appetite are overarching themes that are expected to drive this market over the medium-term and should ultimately weigh on the Australian Dollar going forward.

USDCAD – technical overview

The outlook for this pair remains highly constructive, with the price breaking medium-term resistance and pushing to fresh +5 year highs. This has opened the door for break and acceleration through major psychological barriers at 1.2000. However, daily studies are stretched, and there is risk for a more meaningful pullback to allow for these studies to unwind, before the market continues higher. Still, any setbacks should be well supported ahead of 1.1600, with only a break below 1.1560 to delay.

• R2 1.2200 – Figure – Medium
• R1 1.2115 - 20Jan/2015 high – Medium
• S1 1.1985 – 19Jan high – Medium
• S2 1.1935 – 19Jan low – Strong

USDCAD – fundamental overview

Signs of a potential bottom in the price of oil would be a welcome development for a beaten down Canadian Dollar, trading at its lowest levels against the Buck since 2009. The ongoing slide in oil prices has been a major drag on the Loonie, with the Canada economy heavily correlated to the direction in the commodity, which has given up nearly 60% of its value since June 2014. Bank of Canada Governor Poloz has warned the drop in oil prices could be reflected in today’s monetary policy statement, and this has been backed up by BoC Deputy Governor Lane who said oil posed ‘important risks to Canada’s economic outlook.’ Though much of the Loonie’s fate is predicated on the price of oil, even with an oil rebound, the Canadian Dollar could remain under pressure if the BoC downgrades growth and inflation forecasts, or offers any hints of a potential rate cut.

NZDUSD – technical overview

Although the market trades just off recent 2014 lows, price action in this pair has been mostly sideways of late. However, the underlying downtrend remains firmly intact, with deeper setbacks favoured towards 0.7200 on a break below 0.7600. Look for the 0.7800-0.7900 area to continue to act as formidable resistance, while ultimately, only back above 0.8035 would compromise the bearish outlook.

• R2 0.7808 – 19Jan high – Medium
• R1 0.7700 - Figure – Medium
• S1 0.7624 – 20Jan low – Medium
• S2 0.7609 – 9Dec/2014 low – Very Strong

NZDUSD – fundamental overview

Kiwi has been very well supported in recent weeks, but is at risk of relenting to external pressure. With stocks looking vulnerable off record highs, oil in a free fall, and the global outlook in question, the higher yielding risk correlated currency is exposed. This could put more pressure on the local economy and in turn, force the RBNZ to reconsider its less accommodative stance, particularly in a world where central banks are in an intense currency devaluation race. Contributing to Kiwi relative underperformance this week is the latest softer than expected CPI data which should push back any chances for a rate hike to 2016.

US SPX 500 – technical overview

Finally signs of reversal and a major top, with the market very well capped and rolling over. Look for a break and daily close below key support at 1968 to confirm the topping structure and open the door for a fresh downside acceleration exposing the October 2014, 1820 area base. Ultimately, only back above 2069 would compromise the bearish outlook and put the focus back on the 2097 record high.

• R2 2o69.00 – 9Jan high – Strong
• R1 2033.00 – 15Jan high – Medium
• S1 1968.00 – 16Dec low – Strong
• S2 1920.00 – 2Oct low – Medium

US SPX 500 – fundamental overview

US equities have come under pressure over the past several days and continue to show signs of topping off December record highs. While the prospect of a Fed rate hike has already started to weigh on investor sentiment, this latest move by the SNB to remove its currency cap has cast a shadow on central bank credibility. The recovery in the global economy has relied on central bank policies that incentivize investment in risk to stimulate growth. But if these strategies are called into question, the market could capitulate quickly. The latest WSJ piece from Jon Hilsenrath hasn’t helped, after the Fed watcher said the central bank was on track for a hike later this year.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overview

The market has taken out critical medium-term resistance at 1256 to suggest a major base could be in place at 1131. Look for the latest break to open the next upside extension back towards key resistance in the form of the July 2014 peak at 1345. Only below the weekly low at 1217 would negate the new found bullish momentum.

• R2 1345.00 – 6Jul high – Strong
• R1 1323.00 – 8Aug high – Medium
• S1 1272.00 – 19Jan low – Medium
• S2 1217.00 – 12Jan low – Strong

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overview

The shocking move by the SNB to abolish the cap on the Swiss Franc and expand negative interest rate policy has left market participants with a lack of confidence in currencies and little incentive to be long safe haven FX with no yield protection. This has opened a massive wave of fresh demand for gold, with the price of the yellow metal surging through key resistance in the form of the October peak. Investors are now comfortable holding the hard asset and could continue to rally the metal as the ripple effects from the SNB move work their way through the rest of the market.

Feature – technical overview

US OIL (spot) recoveries have been short-lived, with the market once again breaking down through a bearish consolidation to fresh multi-year lows through major support at 45.00. However, medium-term studies are highly stretched and there is risk building for some form of a major corrective reversal. Look for a push back above 51.25 to confirm basing, while below 44.20 opens fresh downside towards 40.00

• R2 52.65 – 5Jan high – Medium
• R1 51.25 – 15Jan high – Strong
• S1 45.00 – 14Jan low – Medium
• S2 44.20 - 13Jan/2015 low – Strong

Feature – fundamental overview

The dramatic pullback in oil prices has been major story in global markets, and it’s clear this theme will continue to garner attention in 2015. Saudi Arabia has been quite vocal it will do nothing to help prop the price, and according to Iran, there would be no Saudi intervention until the $25 level. Oversupply, lack of demand, and downgraded global growth forecasts have further depressed prices and it will be important to keep an eye on US shale producers to see just how much longer they can sustain business at current levels. But even with all the negatives, there are reports of bargain hunters stepping in over the past two weeks.