Why FX Hasn’t Really Gone Anywhere At All

GBPUSD – technical overview

This latest impressive run to the topside has stalled out ahead of critical resistance in the form of the December peak at 1.2775. While we could still see a test and overshoot beyond 1.2775 in the sessions ahead, the market would need to establish a weekly close above this level to suggest a major base in place and force a bullish structural shift. Until then, expect any moves into or through 1.2775 to stall out. A daily close below 1.2347 will increase bearish prospects.

• R2 1.2583 – 9Feb high – Strong
• R1 1.2562 – 23Feb high– Medium
• S1 1.2400 – Figure – Medium
• S2 1.2347 – 7Feb low – Strong

GBPUSD – fundamental overview

The Pound comes into Friday as the strongest among the developed currencies on the week. Interestingly, economic data hasn’t done anything that would point to such outperformance, while the UK currency still has a lot to worry about as far as its Brexit fate goes. There has been some solid second tier data out of the UK, but the only meaningful release this week came from UK GDP which was mixed. Thursday’s rally had a lot to do with this week’s gains, seemingly fueled more on bearish USD talk from US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and some buy stops tripped up above 1.2500. But the technicals are important here for perspective and so long as we hold below the December peak at 1.2775, rallies are expected to continue to find healthy sell interest. Looking ahead, absence of UK data will leave the market focused on Brexit, broader themes and some US data that features new home sales and Michigan sentiment.

USDJPY – technical overview

The market has seen a nice bounce, though the short-term pressure remains on the downside despite this bounce in light of a recent break of multi-session consolidation that projects weakness into the 109.50 area in the days ahead. At this point, it would take a push back above 115.62 to officially alleviate short-term downside pressure and as such, the current rally is expected to stall out ahead of 115.00.

• R2 114.31 – 16Feb high – Strong
• R1 113.78– 21Feb high – Medium
• S1 112.55 – 23Feb low – Medium
• S2 111.59 – 7Feb low – Strong

USDJPY – fundamental overview

Flows in the Yen have been all about external drivers, namely yield differentials and surging global equities, which have been Yen bearish, and Trump protectionism and fear of impending risk off flow, which have been Yen supportive. Thursday’s comments from US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin knocked the US Dollar back across the board as he cast doubt on any imminence for both a Fed rate hike and clarity on US policy reforms and this has contributed to this run in the Yen. Looking ahead, broader themes will continue to dictate flow, with the Yen likely taking its cues into the weekly close from US equity market direction. We also get US economic data that features new home sales and Michigan confidence.

EURCHF – technical overview

A recent close below 1.0800 which had been defined as the bottom of a multi-week range has strengthened the bearish outlook, opening the door for additional declines below the 2016 low at 1.0624 and towards psychological barriers at 1.0500 further down. A descending triangle formation on the daily chart is strengthening the bearish outlook. At this point, a daily close back above 1.0763 would be required to take the immediate pressure off the downside.

• R2 1.0763 – 30Dec high – Strong
• R1 1.0708 – 3Feb high – Medium
• S1 1.0632 – 21Feb low – Medium
• S2 1.0624 – 24Jun/2016 low – Strong

EURCHF – fundamental overview

The SNB is in a quiet battle with the market, forced to contend with an ongoing wave of demand for the Swiss Franc in a less certain global environment, especially with the weapon of monetary policy worn down. The central bank has been committed to its mandate of ensuring the Franc does not appreciate further. But despite all efforts, the Franc continues to want to appreciate. It seems the central bank’s strategy has been to sell Francs when risk comes off and to do nothing when risk is back on and natural flows should be CHF bearish. But the trouble is, even with global equities elevated, arguably reflecting global appetite for risk, the Franc barely depreciating, if at all. This is an added concern with the SNB’s holding of US equities at record highs. Of course, the reemergence of Eurozone political risk as reflected through elections in France, Holland and Italy, and renewed Greek debt concerns, are only further contributing to SNB stress, with the Franc finding even more demand on the back of these developments. So if equities start to come off and demand for the Franc ramps up, this SNB headache could turn into an SNB migraine.

AUDUSD – technical overview

The market has entered a healthy bullish phase after setbacks stalled shy of key medium-term support at 0.7145 in late December. Still, overall, rallies continue to be very well capped on a medium-term basis, with only a daily close back above 0.7800 to compromise this outlook. Look for a daily close below 0.7600 to officially put the pressure back on the downside.

• R2 0.7779 – 8Nov high – Strong
• R1 0.7741 – 23Feb high– Medium
• S1 0.7650 – 21Feb low – Medium
• S2 0.7606 – 7Feb low – Medium

AUDUSD – fundamental overview

RBA Governor Lowe offered some balanced testimony on Friday with respect to the Australian Dollar. While the central banker conceded the currency wasn’t fundamentally overvalued, he also said they would like to see the Australian Dollar lower. Firmer Aussie sovereign bond yields, supported base metals and an ongoing push in global equities have all been helping to keep the Australian Dollar well supported in 2017. Still, with the market running so far and fast, with Fed policy divergence a major potential weight and with risk rising for some form of a correction in the stock market, the commodity currency could be vulnerable to weakness in the days ahead. Looking ahead, broader themes will continue to dictate flow, with Aussie likely taking its cues into the weekly close from US equity market direction. We also get US economic data that features new home sales and Michigan confidence.

USDCAD – technical overview

Despite recent setbacks, look for the market to continue to be well supported on dips into the 1.3000 area ahead of the next major upside extension back towards the December peak at 1.3600. In the interim, a daily close back above 1.3213 will help take the immediate short-term pressure off the downside.

• R2 1.3213 – 7Feb high – Strong
• R1 1.3210 – 22Feb high – Medium
• S1 1.3083 – 23Feb low – Medium
• S2 1.3010 – 16Feb low – Strong

USDCAD – fundamental overview

The Canadian Dollar is doing its best to recover in the aftermath of the mid-week Canada retail sales disappointment. US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin has helped the Loonie along after questioning an imminent Fed hike, while highlighting new tax measures in the US would have little impact on US growth in 2017. Meanwhile, the price action in the OIL market has become much less relevant to the Canadian Dollar now that the commodity has deferred to range trade. Looking ahead, we can expect volatility later in the day with Canada CPI due, along with US new home sales and Michigan confidence. Of course, the performance in US equity markets and broader macro themes will also be watched closely.

NZDUSD – technical overview

Despite this latest upside correction in 2017, the overall pressure remains on the downside with the market expected to be very well capped on rallies into the 0.7400 area. The weekly chart is reflective of this fact as it looks like we are seeing the formation of a major top off the 2016 high. As such, expect the market to continue to roll over in favour of that next lower top. A weekly close below 0.7200 this week will help strengthen this outlook.

• R2 0.7300 – Figure – Strong
• R1 0.7247 – 23Feb high – Medium
• S1 0.7130 – 22Feb low – Strong
• S2 0.7100 – Figure– Medium

NZDUSD – fundamental overview

There has been a notable shift in sentiment towards the New Zealand Dollar in recent days. Softer local employment, a more dovish RBNZ, a rotation into AUDNZD, hawkish Fed speak leaving the door open for a March hike, disappointing New Zealand retail sales and this latest GDT auction letdown are some of the major drivers behind the Kiwi bearishness. Of course, Thursday’s USD bearish Mnuchin talk, an ongoing bid for equities and rallying commodities have been helping to slow Kiwi declines. But ultimately, if the US Dollar pushes back to focusing on Trump reflation and hawkish Fed policy, and if US equities falter, we could very well see a more intense liquidation of Kiwi longs. Looking ahead, broader themes will continue to dictate flow, with Kiwi likely taking its cues into the weekly close from US equity market direction. We also get US economic data that features new home sales and Michigan confidence.

US SPX 500 – technical overview

The latest break to yet another record high following a healthy period of consolidation, has opened the door for the next big push towards 2400. While technicals are severely stretched and there are definitive signs of exhaustion on the horizon, given the intensity of this uptrend, a break back below 2300 would be required at a minimum to alleviate immediate topside pressure.

• R2 2400.00 – Psychological – Strong
• R1 2370.00 – 23Feb/Record high – Medium
• S1 2300.00 – Psychological – Strong
• S2 2254.00 – 12Jan low– Medium

US SPX 500 – fundamental overview

The record run in US equities has been more than impressive, particularly at a time when the Fed is embarking on a hawkish path to policy normalisation and the Trump administration is lacking the type of stability that would inspire confidence. This leaves financial markets vulnerable to any shocks and exposed to intense periods of risk liquidation going forward. The fact that monetary policy around the rest of the globe is exhausted with very little left in the tank to artificially support risk assets is yet another major concern. Throw in systemic risk from Brexit and Eurozone structural issues, stretched valuation, and a market that hasn’t dipped 1% in an disturbingly uncomfortable amount of time and the picture gets even uglier. Of course, expectation of fresh tax reform and the revival of the Trump reflation play have contributed to this latest record high push, but overall, there are plenty of red flags out there, warning of a major capitulation ahead. It’s almost as if investors are now climbing a very dangerous stock market ladder more because they’re being chased by red flags below, than on an actual desire to go higher.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overview

The market has been very well supported since basing out around 1120 in 2016. This latest break through 1220 confirms a fresh higher low at 1180 and opens the next major upside extension towards a measured move into the 1260 area. Only back below 1180 would delay the constructive outlook, while ultimately, below 1120 would be required to negate.

• R2 1260.00 – Measured Move – Strong
• R1 1251.15 – 23Feb high – Medium
• S1 1226.10 – 21Feb low – Medium
• S2 1216.80 – 15Feb low  – Strong

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overview

Solid demand from medium and longer-term players continues to emerge on dips, with these players more concerned about the limitations of exhausted monetary policy, extended global equities, political uncertainty and systemic risk. All of this should continue to keep the commodity in demand, with many market participants fleeing to the hard asset as the grand dichotomy of record high equities and record low yields comes to an unnerving climax.

Feature – technical overview

USDMXN has been in the process of correcting out from recent record highs earlier this year. The market has now dropped back into critical support in the 19.00-20.00 area and is expected to be well supported around this area (61.8% fib retrace, 200-Day SMA) in favour of a resumption of the uptrend and push back through the record high just over 22.00. Ultimately, only back below 19.00 would give reason for pause and open the possibility for a more meaningful structural shift.

• R2 21.3940 – 11Nov high – Strong
• R1 20.5480 – 17Feb high – Medium
• S1 19.4850 – 200-Day SMA – Strong
• S2 19.0000 – Psychological – Strong

Feature – fundamental overview

The Peso has been getting a lot of help of late. A unanimously decided Banxico rate hike, reduction in Peso shorts and more conciliatory talk out of the White House have already been helping to rally the currency out from record lows against the Buck. And now this latest Banxico announcement of plans to hold FX hedge auctions in March as a means to further prop the Peso, is giving the Peso an additional boost, with USDMXN sinking back below the psychological barrier at 20.00 and towards its longer run 200-Day moving average. Still, the Peso is far from out of the woods, with Trump uncertainty running high and the Fed on it policy normalisation path. Of course, the fact that global equities look like they could come off the rails is yet another serious variable that could undermine any recovery in the Peso and emerging market FX. Looking out, the market is pricing another 100bps of Banxico hikes in 2017.