Next 24 hours: FX a Sideshow to All Things Stocks and Bitcoin
Today’s report: An Earth Shattering Day of Reckoning
This week has been an active one, though when breaking it down, most of the activity is happening away from FX. If we look at the more developed currencies since the Monday open, all are confined to ranges well within 1%. The big stories this week have been about optimism surrounding US tax reform and Brexit.
Wake-up call
Chart talk: Major markets technical overview video
- Eurozone confidence
- Brexit bill
- traditional correlations
- equity exposureÂ
- China worry
- upbeat Poloz
- Kiwi outlook
- red flags
- Macro accounts
- USDTRYÂ
Peformance chart: Five day performance v. US dollar
Suggested reading
- The Eurozone’s Strong Outlook, R. Blitz, Financial Times (November 28, 2017)
- More Stressed about Derivatives than UK Banks, M. Ashworth,  Bloomberg (November 28, 2017)
Chart talk: Technical & fundamental highlights
Choose pair:
EURUSD – technical overview
The recent break back above 1.1880 is a significant development, as it undermines the prospect for a deeper correction, while opening the door for a more immediate resumption of a well defined uptrend that has taken form in 2017. Look for any setbacks to be well supported ahead of 1.1700, for the next major upside extension beyond the current yearly high of 1.2093 and towards the 1.2500 area further up. Only a daily close back below 1.1700 will delay this outlook.
EURUSD – fundamental overview
The Euro has come under a little pressure this week as it retraces the breakout above important resistance this past Friday. The selloff has been drive on post holiday profit taking, optimism around US tax reform and some less dovish comments from the incoming Fed Chair. But overall, the US Dollar remains under pressure in 2017 and the Euro should continue to be well supported on dips for a push back towards and through the 2017 high up around 1.2100. As far as today’s docket goes, we get Eurozone confidence readings, German CPI, US GDP print, US core PCE, Yellen speak, US pending home sales and the Fed Beige book. The market will also be thinking about tomorrow’s Germany coalition talks.
GBPUSD – technical overview
The market has broken out to the topside, signaling the end to a range that had defined price action since early October. The push back above 1.3340 now suggests the market is poised for a continuation of the 2017 uptrend, with a higher low possibly in place at 1.3027, to be confirmed on a break of the 2017 high at 1.3658, opening the door for a push over the coming weeks and months back above 1.4000. Any setbacks should not be well supported ahead of 1.3000, though ultimately, only back below 1.2775 would negate the constructive outlook.
GBPUSD – fundamental overview
After initially taking a hit on Tuesday and underperforming on the back of concerns over the Bank of England bank stress tests, the Pound managed to put in a big time rally into the end of the day as news broke a Brexit bill agreement had been reached. This should be a big positive for the UK currency as it gets the EU and UK moving forward with the negotiation process and onto the next phase. Looking at today’s calendar. key standouts come in the form of a BOE Carney appearance, US GDP print, US core PCE, Yellen speak, US pending home sales and the Fed Beige book.
USDJPY – technical overview
The major pair has been confined to a range trade for much of 2017, with rallies well capped ahead of 115.00 and dips well supported below 108.00. The latest break below 111.65 reaffirms this outlook, encouraging the next big drop all the way back to the range lows in the 107-108 area. Look for rallies to be well capped below 113.00.
USDJPY – fundamental overview
The Yen continues to trade off broader external drivers and themes. The big ones have been Yen supportive which is why we have seen a serious pullback in USDJPY over the past several days. These include broad based negative sentiment for the US Dollar, geopolitical tension with North Korea and worry about the outlook in China and potential for a major risk off event. While there was some US Dollar demand on Tuesday, mostly from tax reform optimism, the gains have been marginal and fresh offers are reported into rallies. Technicals are also influencing price action here, with the market looking like it wants to adhere to a range trade that is calling the rate back down to the 107.00s. Looking ahead, key standouts come in the form of , US GDP print, US core PCE, Yellen speak, US pending home sales and the Fed Beige book.
EURCHF – technical overview
A period of multi-day consolidation has been broken, with the market pushing up to a fresh 2017 high. The bullish break could now get the uptrend thinking about a test of that major barrier at 1.2000 further up. In the interim, look for any setbacks to be very well supported ahead of 1.1400, while only back below 1.1260 would delay the overall constructive tone.
EURCHF – fundamental overview
The SNB will need to be careful right now as its strategy to weaken the Franc could face headwinds from the US equity market. The record run in the US stock market has been a big boost to the SNB’s strategy with elevated sentiment encouraging Franc weakness. Of course, the SNB is no stranger to this risk, given a balance sheet with massive exposure to the US equity market. But any signs of capitulation on that front, will likely invite a very large wave of demand for the Franc, which will put the SNB in a more challenging position to weaken the Franc.  And so, we speculate the SNB continues to be active buying EURCHF in an attempt to build some cushion ahead of what could be a period of intense Franc demand ahead.
AUDUSD – technical overview
The market has been under a lot of pressure over the past several weeks, extending declines into the 0.7500s thus far. It’s worth noting technical studies are in the process of unwinding from oversold readings, resulting in this latest minor bounce. But overall, the pressure is on the downside and rallies are viewed as corrective while below 0.7900.
AUDUSD – fundamental overview
The Australian Dollar hasn’t been able to take much advantage of a recent slide in the US Dollar as worry out of China over a frothy equity market and renewed geopolitical tension with North Korea hangs over the risk correlated currency’s head. This follows a week of mild recovery for the Australian Dollar, with the currency getting a boost from the intense wave of US Dollar bearishness on the back of upgraded Fed concerns about prolonged subdued inflation and discouraging US economic data. On Tuesday, the US Dollar made a comeback on US tax reform optimism, which only served to weigh on the Australian Dollar some more. Looking ahead, key standouts come in the form of , US GDP print, US core PCE, Yellen speak, US pending home sales and the Fed Beige book.
USDCAD – technical overview
Clear signs of basing in this pair, with the recovery from plus two year lows back in September extending through an important resistance point in the form of the August peak. This sets the stage for additional upside in the days and weeks ahead, with the immediate focus now on a retest of the psychological barrier at 1.3000. In the interim, any setbacks should now be well supported ahead of 1.2500.
USDCAD – fundamental overview
The Bank of Canada FSR had upbeat components, while BoC Governor Poloz has been trying to keep with a positive outlook as well. Nevertheless, the Loonie is still worried about a Bank of Canada that may have been too aggressive with consecutive rates hikes this year and overall economic data that has deteriorated since. Meanwhile, the Loonie didn’t get much of a boost from a rally in OIL prices to +2 year highs in recent days, and is finding offers as the commodity sells off into today’s OPEC meeting. Later today, we also get US GDP print, US core PCE, Yellen speak, US pending home sales and the Fed Beige book.
NZDUSD – technical overview
Medium term studies have turned down sharply after the market pushed up to a plus two year high through 0.7500 in late July. A recent break below 0.7000 has opened a more meaningful reversal that has accelerated declines to fresh 2017 lows below 0.6800. This sets the stage for a fresh downside extension to support from May 2016 at 0.6676, though with daily studies turning up from oversold, the market is taking time to allow those studies to unwind a bit so the market can carve out a lower top. While below 0.7200, the structure remains bearish.
NZDUSD – fundamental overview
The last week or so has been a lot more friendly to the ailing New Zealand Dollar, with the Kiwi rate recovering out from 2017 lows against the Buck. Most of the demand has been driven off an intense wave of US Dollar bearishness on the back of upgraded Fed concerns over a prolonged period of subdued inflation and discouraging US economic data. However, we are seeing some relative outperformance, with the market also pricing out the worst of the political uncertainty that was associated with the new Kiwi government. News the RBNZ will modestly ease mortgage lending restrictions has also been supportive, though this was offset by reports New Zealand will be strengthening its foreign investment rules. Overall, we would caution against getting overly optimistic about Kiwi’s prospects. Economic data has been less than impressive on the whole and this should keep the RBNZ erring on the side of accommodation. Looking ahead, key standouts come in the form of , US GDP print, US core PCE, Yellen speak, US pending home sales and the Fed Beige book.
US SPX 500 – technical overview
The market continues to shrug off overextended technical readings, with any setbacks quickly supported for fresh record highs. The next key level of resistance comes in the form of a measured move extension off of a 40 point consolidation that had taken place in early November, with the extension objective coming in at around 2640. At this point, it would take a break back below 2557 at a minimum to alleviate immediate topside pressure.
US SPX 500 – fundamental overview
The US equity market continues to be well supported on dips, pushing further into record high territory. It seems, on a macro level, the combination of blind momentum, expectation US tax reform will ultimately work out well and the appointment of Jerome Powell as the next Fed Chair are helping to keep the move going. But at the same time, there’s a clear tension out there as the VIX sits at unnervingly depressed levels. The fact that Fed policy is normalising, however slow, could start to resonate a little more, with stimulus efforts exhausted, balance sheet reduction coming into play and another rate hike still on the cards this year. But for now, it’s more of the same. At this point, it will take a breakdown in this market back below 2500 to turn heads.
GOLD (SPOT) – technical overview
Setbacks have been well supported over the past several months, with the market continuing to put in higher lows and higher highs, opening a recent push to a fresh 2017 high up around 1357. And so, look for this most recent dip to round out that next higher low around 1260 in favour of a bullish continuation towards a retest of the 2016 peak at 1375 further up. Ultimately, only a drop back below 1200 would negate the outlook.
GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overview
Solid demand from medium and longer-term players continues to emerge on dips, with these players more concerned about exhausted monetary policy, extended global equities, political uncertainty, systemic risk and geopolitical threats. All of this should continue to keep the commodity well supported, with many market participants also fleeing to the hard asset as the grand dichotomy of record high equities and record low yields comes to an unnerving climax. Certainly the US Dollar under pressure in 2017 has added to the metal’s bid tone as well, but there is a growing sense that even in a scenario where the US Dollar is bid for an extended period, GOLD will hold up on risk off macro implications. Dealers are now reporting demand in size ahead of 1260.
Feature – technical overview
USDTRY has extended its record run, with the market contemplating the establishment above major psychological resistance at 4.0000. At the same time, with medium technical studies looking extended, risk is building for a healthy corrective reversal in the sessions ahead. Ultimately, any setbacks should be well supported ahead of 3.6500, with only a break back below this level to force a shift in the structure.
Feature – fundamental overview
This latest run of broad based US Dollar selling has been a big relief for the CBRT, with the central bank in a nasty battle, trying and stop the Lira from a continued decline to fresh record lows. The Turkish central bank is in that awful position of needing to decide between reacting to a free fall in the currency through tightening measures or reacting to a sluggish economy that is strained by the removal of any accommodation in place. Of course, the situation is even more stressful for the CBRT, with President Erdogan consistently calling for more accommodation. Tensions with the US in recent week’s revolving around Turkish businessman Reza Zareb, accused of evading sanctions against Iran, have only intensified negative sentiment towards the emerging market currency, while inspiring a wave of Lira outflows. There have been calls for as much as 400bps of rate hikes, but the CBRT isn’t expected to make any decisions until it gets a look at the November CPI release due December 4th.