Dollar Recovering, Not Uptrending

GBPUSD – technical overview

Extended studies have opened the door for a much needed corrective decline. There is risk for a deeper setback in the days ahead, with the market gravitating to rising channel support off the 2017 uptrend which comes in around the 1.3500 area. Still, overall, the structure remains highly constructive on a medium to longer term basis and a higher low is sought out ahead of a bullish continuation. Look for any additional setbacks to be well supported above 1.3300.

• R2 1.3793 – 30Apr high – Strong
• R1 1.3700 – Figure – Medium
• S1 1.3581 – 2May low – Medium
• S2 1.3459 – 11Jan/2018 low – Strong

GBPUSD – fundamental overview

Finally a little relied for the Pound after UK construction PMIs came in better than expected. But overall, the Pound has been cooling off from a run of outperformance in 2018, with the currency taking some big hits on the back of less hawkish Carney speak, softer UK GDP and renewed tension surrounding the Brexit overhang. This has resulted in a dramatic repricing of BOE rate hike odds at next week’s meeting, dropping from a near certain 95% chance several days back to less than 25%. Still, we believe the Brexit bumps will continue to smooth out going forward and expect the current weakness to be well supported well ahead of 1.3000 from medium and longer term demand. Looking ahead, the focus will be on US ADP employment and the always anticipated FOMC decision.

GBPUSD – Technical charts in detail

USDJPY – technical overview

The major pair has been attempting to bottom out after trading down to a 2018 low in the 104s. The latest break and close back above 108.00 strengthens the recovery outlook and opens the door for a bigger recovery back into the next key resistance zone in the 110.50-111.50 area. Back below 108.00 would be required to shift the focus to the downside.

• R2 110.49 – 2Feb high – Strong
• R1 109.93 – 2May high – Medium
• S1 108.55 – 24Apr low – Medium
• S2 107.91 – 21Feb low – Strong

USDJPY – fundamental overview

Not much of a reaction to last week’s Bank of Japan hold decision, that produced a notable tweak in the statement removing guidance calling for inflation to reach its 2% target in fiscal year 2019. Month end flows didn't prove to be much of anything on Monday. Overall, the Yen has come under pressure in recent weeks (USDJPY higher), with the currency falling victim to broad based US Dollar demand as US protectionism rhetoric is dialed down and the focus shifts back over to yield differentials. Last week’s moves in US tens and twos are a clear reflection of this fact. At the same time, the major pair is still very much correlated to risk sentiment and any downturn there will likely invite renewed downside pressure (Yen demand). Global trade wars, geopolitical risk and the Abe scandal are all stories that could weigh on USDJPY. Looking ahead, we get US ADP employment and the always anticipated Fed decision.

USDJPY – Technical charts in detail

EURCHF – technical overview

The market has recently pushed to a fresh multi-month high back through the massive 1.2000 level. This is the first time the market has traded 1.2000 since January 2015. However, studies are now extended across the major time frames and there is risk building for a sizable corrective decline before considering a bullish continuation.

• R2 1.2100 – Figure – Strong
• R1 1.2006 – 20Apr/2018 high – Medium
• S1 1.1927 – 23Apr low – Medium
• S2 1.1842 – 12Apr low – Strong

EURCHF – fundamental overview

The SNB will need to be careful right now, as its strategy to weaken the Franc could face headwinds from the US equity market in 2018. The record run in the US stock market has been a big boost to the SNB’s strategy with elevated sentiment encouraging Franc weakness. Of course, the SNB is no stranger to this risk, given a balance sheet with massive exposure to US equities. But any signs of a more intensified liquidation on that front into Q2 2018, will likely invite a very large wave of demand for the Franc, which will put the SNB in a more challenging position to weaken the Franc.

AUDUSD – technical overview

The market has been in the process of rolling over after failing to sustain a break above 0.8100 earlier this year. This has set up a sequence of lower tops and lower lows on the daily chart, with setbacks extending below the 0.7500 barrier, also resulting in a drop to fresh 2018 lows. At this point, rallies should be well capped and only back above the 0.7700 area would take the immediate pressure off the downside.

• R2 0.7622 – 24Apr high – Strong
• R1 0.7590 – 26Apr high – Medium
• S1 0.7474 – 2May/2018 low – Strong
• S2 0.7400– Figure – Medium

AUDUSD – fundamental overview

No surprises from the RBA this week, with the central bank leaving rates on hold as widely anticipated, while also delivering the expected balanced tone and outlook. Overall, the Australian Dollar has come under renewed pressure in recent weeks, mostly on the back of broad based Dollar demand as the conversation shifts back to yield differentials that favour the Buck. We have however seen some Aussie demand against its Kiwi cousin, which has helped to slow the pace of Aussie declines against the Buck somewhat. A solid run of Aussie data, including Monday’s uptick in Aussie inflation and private sector credit have accounted for this latest Aussie demand against Kiwi. Looking ahead, we get US ADP employment and the always anticipated Fed decision.

USDCAD – technical overview

Despite a recent round of weakness, overall, there are signs of basing after months of downside pressure. Look for any setbacks to now be well supported ahead of 1.2500, with a higher low sought out in favour of the next major upside extension through 1.3125 and towards 1.3500 further up. A daily close above 1.2949 will strengthen the constructive outlook.

• R2 1.2949– 22Mar high – Strong
• R1 1.2901 – 27Apr high – Medium
• S1 1.2800 – Figure – Medium
• S2 1.2749 – 23Apr low – Strong

USDCAD – fundamental overview

A solid Canada GDP print and rocketing OIL prices have certainly helped to slow the pace of Canadian Dollar declines, while a scaling back of White House protectionist rhetoric, less dovish Poloz speak in the previous week and some positives out on the NAFTA front have also been a help to the Loonie. But overall, the wave of broad based US Dollar demand will be hard to fight against right now and with NAFTA risk still very much alive given White House unpredictability, there continues to be downside risk attached to the Canadian Dollar’s fate. Looking ahead, we get US ADP employment and the always anticipated Fed decision.

NZDUSD – technical overview

The market looks to be in the process of topping out, with the daily chart slowly rolling over in 2018. Rallies are now expected to be very well capped ahead of 0.7300, with only a break back above the psychological barrier to negate. The market decline has now extended below the critical psychological barrier at 0.7000, resulting in fresh 2018 lows as well, with the next key level of support coming in down at the 2017 low in the 0.6800s.

• R2 0.7121 – 25Apr high – Strong
• R1 0.7097 – 27Apr high – Medium
• S1 0.6991 – 2May/2018 low – Strong
• S2 0.6900 – Figure – Medium

NZDUSD – fundamental overview

There were some worrying components within the Kiwi jobs data, though the headline reading produced a better than expected result. Overall, the combination of ongoing global trade tension, fallout from an end to a near decade long post crisis global monetary policy accommodation and on the whole less than stellar economic data out of New Zealand in recent weeks have weighed heavily on the Kiwi rate after the market had pushed into some medium term resistance towards 0.7500 in April. It’s worth noting, we’ve also seen cross related Kiwi selling against Aussie. Looking ahead, we get US ADP employment and the always anticipated Fed decision.

US SPX 500 – technical overview

A severely overbought market is finally showing signs of rolling over off the January record high, allowing for stretched monthly readings to unwind. Any rallies should now be very well capped ahead of 2800 in favour of continued weakness towards the 2015 high at 2138.

• R2 2743 – 21Mar high – Strong
• R1 2718 – 18Apr high – Medium
• S1 2553 – 2Apr low – Medium
• S2 2533 – 6Feb/2018 low – Strong

US SPX 500 – fundamental overview

Investor immunity to downside risk is not looking as strong these days and there’s a clear tension out there as the VIX starts to rise from unnervingly depressed levels. The combination of Fed policy normalisation, ramped up US protectionism, and geopolitical tension have been capping the market into rallies, with any renewed setbacks at risk of intensifying on the prospect for the reemergence of inflationary pressure. Overall, we expect the bigger picture theme of policy normalisation to continue to weigh on investor sentiment into rallies.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overview

Setbacks have been well supported over the past several months, with the market continuing to put in higher lows and higher highs. Look for some more chop followed by an eventual push above massive resistance in the form of the 2016 high at 1375. This will then open the door for a much larger recovery in the months ahead. In the interim, setbacks are expected to be well supported around 1300.

• R2 1375 – 2016 high – Very Strong
• R1 1366 – 25Jan/2018 high – Medium
• S1 1310 – 30Apr low – Medium
• S2 1303 – 2Mar low  – Strong

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overview

Solid demand from medium and longer-term players persists, with these players more concerned about exhausted monetary policy, extended global equities, political uncertainty, systemic risk and geopolitical threats. All of this should continue to keep the commodity well supported, with many market participants also fleeing to the hard asset as the grand dichotomy of record high equities and record low yields comes to an unnerving climax. Certainly the US Dollar under pressure has added to the metal’s bid tone as well, but there is a growing sense that even in a scenario where the US Dollar is bid for an extended period, GOLD will hold up on risk off macro implications. The 2016 high at 1375 is a massive level that if broken and closed above, could be something that triggers a widespread panic and rush to accumulate more of the hard asset.

BTCUSD – technical overview

A recent break back above short term resistance at 9,200 has strengthened the recovery outlook, with scope for a correction further up towards 10,000. Still, the overall pressure remains on the downside and it is going to take a recovery back above 12,000 to suggest otherwise.

• R2 9,900 – 12Mar high – Strong
• R1 9,750 – 25Apr high – Medium
• S1 8,460 – 16Apr high – Medium
• S2 7,820 – 17Apr low  – Strong

BTCUSD – fundamental overview

The crypto asset has come under pressure in 2018, with ramped up regulatory oversight and potential government crackdowns forcing many holders to exit positions. The market is also coming back to earth after a euphoric 2017 run that had bubble written all over. Bitcoin has struggled on the transaction side as well, with transactions per second a major drawback, along with a mining community that has been less willing to process transactions due to the lower fees. The Lightning network has been a welcome development and is helping to ramp up transaction speed, which has been behind some of the recovery off the 2018 low, though it seems the combination of a massive bubble, more regulatory oversight, a market that is still trying to convince of its proof of concept, and the threat of a reduction in global risk appetite, could all result in even deeper setbacks ahead once the current correction fades away.

BTCUSD – Technical charts in detail

ETHUSD – technical overview

Signs of recovery, with the market rallying out from the 2018 low and pushing back above some consolidation resistance. This has opened the door for a more significant recovery, though the market will need to establish a daily close back above 712 to suggest we are seeing a more constructive shift in the trend.

• R2 895 – 27Feb high – Medium
• R1 712 – 24Apr high – Strong
• S1 575 – 21Apr low– Medium
• S2 537 – 16Apr high  – Strong

ETHUSD – fundamental overview

Setbacks in the price of ETH have been more intense than those of Bitcoin in 2018. Though both markets are going through a period of shakeup following bubble activity in 2017, there has been a bigger exodus from ETH with this cryptocurrency more heavily correlated to risk in global markets. The reduction in global risk appetite has put a strain on the investment in projects on the blockchain and with most of the blockchain projects built on the Ethereum protocol, it makes sense to see this market more negatively impacted than bitcoin, which is considered to be the store of value digital currency.