Next 24 hours: Strange Commodity Currencies Price Action
Today’s report: Currency Market Still Looking for Clarity
There’s been a lot of back and forth in the FX market in recent weeks, with currencies not sure exactly which way that next big break will be. After a nice run to the topside, the run has stalled out, with the US Dollar reasserting. Keep an eye on Eurusd 1.1430 and 1.1625.
Wake-up call
- Fed Minutes
- retail sales
- Risk sentiment
- tough situation
- Aussie jobs
- OIL decline
- week’s CPI
- Fed model
- institutional demand
- stable currencies
- Tether shakeup
Peformance chart: Performance v. US dollar since weekly open
Suggested reading
- Money Managers Losing Faith in Money Managers, M. Gilbert, Bloomberg (October 17, 2018)
- EM Remains a Risk after Turkey and Argentina, M. Sandbu, Financial Times (October 17, 2018)
Chart talk: Technical & fundamental highlights
Choose pair:
EURUSD – technical overview
The Euro has struggled since breaking back above the Ichimoku cloud in September, with the latest round of setbacks compromising a bullish shift in the outlook. But if the market can establish a sustained break back above 1.1600, it will strengthen the prospect of a more meaningful higher low in August ahead of the next major upside extension back above the +3 year high from earlier this year up around 1.2550. Setbacks should not hold up ahead of 1.1433.
EURUSD – fundamental overview
The Euro has come back under pressure into the latter half of the week, with the single currency weighed down by the more hawkish leaning Fed trajectory. Wednesday’s Fed Minutes had components that gave off an even stronger bias towards moving into a restrictive mode, which resulted in the Euro declining back below 1.1500. There was also talk about the PBOC not being all that effective in efforts to firm up the Yuan, which added to the Dollar’s general bid tone. It’s worth noting the fact that structural risk in Italy and some political uncertainty in Germany hadn’t bothered the Euro earlier in the week and it will be interesting to see if this becomes more of an issue with the Euro pulling back. Dealers cite good demand into the dip. Looking ahead, we get US initial jobless claims and the Philly Fed. And as per the usual, the market will keep watching those headlines out from the White House relating to global trade.
EURUSD – Technical charts in detail
GBPUSD – technical overview
The correction off the 2018 low transformed into an uptrend following the September break above the daily Ichimoku cloud. It was the first time the market had traded above the cloud since trading around 1.4000 back in April. This encourages the possibility for a more meaningful recovery ahead, with a break back above 1.3300 to strengthen the outlook. Any setbacks should now hold up ahead of the 1.2800.
GBPUSD – fundamental overview
There have been some more hiccups on the Brexit front and it looks like the time frame for a deal has been pushed back. Yet overall, there has been a better sense that a deal will get done and even with this latest uncertainty, the Pound has done a good job holding up. We have seen some weakness into Wednesday on the back of Tuesday’s softer UK CPI prints and a more hawkish leaning Fed Minutes, though we wouldn’t read too much into this with UK PPI offsetting and the Fed Minutes a little stale. Looking ahead, UK retail sales are due, followed up by US initial jobless claims and the Philly Fed. The market will also monitor the latest headlines on global trade, while taking in some more central bank speak.
GBPUSD – Technical charts in detail
USDJPY – technical overview
Rallies continue to be very well capped on a medium-term basis, with the outlook still favouring lower tops and lower lows. The latest breakdown back below 113.00 strengthens the outlook, with the door open for a drop towards the next major support around 109.75. Ultimately, only a close back above a previous lower top from the Fall of 2017 at 114.74 would compromise the bearish structure.
USDJPY – fundamental overview
Overall, the major pair looks increasingly vulnerable given the state of US equities threatening a major capitulation. We’re now living in a world where central bank and government stimulus is no longer there in the way it had been for a decade post 2008 crisis, which increases the probability for Yen demand, as negative shocks to the global economy surface, particularly in light of tension surrounding fallout from US protectionism. As far as today goes, we get US initial jobless claims and the Philly Fed. And as per the usual, the market will keep watching those headlines out from the White House relating to global trade.
EURCHF – technical overview
The market has been in the process of recovering out from a 2018 low coinciding with critical support in the 1.1200 area. However, at this stage, there is no clear directional bias, with the price action deferring to a neutral state. Back above 1.1560 would get some bullish momentum going for a push to 1.2000, while back below 1.1200 would be quite bearish.
EURCHF – fundamental overview
The SNB remains uncomfortable with Franc appreciation and continues to remind the market it will need to be careful about any attempts at trying to force an appreciation in the currency. But the SNB will also need to be careful right now, as its strategy to weaken the Franc is facing headwinds from a less certain global outlook. Any signs of sustained risk liquidation between now and year end, will likely invite a very large wave of demand for the Franc that will put the SNB in the more challenging position of needing to back up its talk with action, that ultimately, may not prove to be as effective as it once was, given where we’re at in the monetary policy cycle.
AUDUSD – technical overview
Technical studies are stretched on a medium term basis, and the market has been attempting to recover out from its lowest levels since February 2016. Still, it would take a break back above the September high at 0.7316 to alleviate immediate downside pressure and encourage the possibility for any possible shift in the trend.
AUDUSD – fundamental overview
Thursday’s Aussie data was less encouraging than the story told. While the unemployment rate dropped down by more than expected, to a 6.5 year low, the participation rate and employment change components moved in the other direction. Still, Aussie was able to trade up, with cross related demand against its Kiwi cousin driving the demand. The bid in Aussie has actually been even more impressive when considering faltering China equities, worry about the PBOC’s ability to firm up the Yuan and this latest hawkish Fed Minutes. As far as today goes, we get US initial jobless claims and the Philly Fed. And as per the usual, the market will keep watching those headlines out from the White House relating to global trade.
USDCAD – technical overview
The market has been under pressure since topping out in June, which could still invite a deeper decline before the next upside extension gets underway. Still, look for any weakness to be well supported ahead of 1.2500 with only a break back below this psychological barrier to negate the bigger picture constructive outlook.
USDCAD – fundamental overview
The Canadian Dollar came under pressure on Wednesday, on the back of a hawkish Fed Minutes, falling OIL prices and comments from Senate Majority Leader McConnell that Congress won’t vote on the revised USMCA deal until 2019. Looking ahead, we get Canada ADP employment data, along with US releases that feature US initial jobless claims and the Philly Fed. And as per the usual, the market will keep watching those headlines out from the White House relating to global trade.
NZDUSD – technical overview
Kiwi setbacks have extended to another 2018 low, with the market also back to its lowest levels since January 2016. This leaves the door open for declines down towards massive support just ahead of 0.6100, in the form of the 2015 low. At the same time, technical studies are looking stretched on a medium term basis, which could warn of a meaningful low ahead of such a retest. Still, at this point, it would take a break back above the September high at 0.6700 to take the immediate pressure off the downside.
NZDUSD – fundamental overview
The New Zealand Dollar is trying to work its way off of +2.5 year lows and got some help this week from the hotter Kiwi CPI read. Still, even with this, any meaningful upside could be an unrealistic expectation as global markets contend with what could be a bigger fallout in stocks. The late Tuesday GDT auction readings were improved but still in the negative and the US Dollar has been trying to rally back after the more hawkish Fed Minutes. Looking ahead, we get Canada ADP employment data, along with US releases that feature US initial jobless claims and the Philly Fed. And as per the usual, the market will keep watching those headlines out from the White House relating to global trade.
US SPX 500 – technical overview
A market that has been extended on the monthly chart is at risk for a major correction, with the possibility for a massive topping formation. Any rallies should now continue to be very well capped ahead of 3000, in favour of renewed weakness back below the 2530 area yearly low (neckline) and towards a retest of strong longer-term resistance turned support in the form of the 2015 high at 2140. Only a weekly close above 3000 would negate the outlook.
US SPX 500 – fundamental overview
Investor immunity to downside risk is not as strong these days. The combination of Fed policy normalisation, US protectionism, ongoing White House drama and geopolitical tension are all warning of capitulation ahead, despite this latest run to record highs. The Fed has also finally acknowledged inflation no longer running below target in 2018, something that could very well result in less attractive equity market valuations given the implication on rates. We recommend keeping a much closer eye on the equities to ten year yield comparative going forward, as this could be something that inspires a more aggressive decline in this second half of 2018.
GOLD (SPOT) – technical overview
Despite a recent run of of declines, the overall outlook remains constructive, with the market in the process of carving out a longer term base off the 2015 low. Look for any additional weakness to be well supported above 1150 on a daily close basis, in favour of the next major upside extension back towards critical resistance in the form of the 2016 high at 1375. Key resistance comes in at 1236, with a push back above to strengthen the outlook.
GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overview
The yellow metal continues to be well supported on dips with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about exhausted monetary policy, extended global equities, political uncertainty, systemic risk and trade war threats. All of this should keep the commodity well supported, with many market participants also fleeing to the hard asset as the grand dichotomy of record high equities and record low yields comes to an unnerving climax.
BTCUSD – technical overview
Considering the intensity of declines already seen this year, if the market does break to the topside, it could be a bullish signal that gets the trend moving up again. But we would need to see a break above the July lower top at around 8,500 for confirmation. Until then, a bearish continuation back towards the September 2017 low around 2,975 can not be ruled out.
BTCUSD – fundamental overview
Bitcoin has since retraced after a deceptive rally to start week. The rally was anything but positive, with the market forced to buy back into Bitcoin on a liquidation of Tether positions, as the credibility of the stable coin has been called into question. Overall, Bitcoin is doing its best to try and hold up above $6,000 in 2018 after undergoing a massive decline off the record high from December 2017. At the moment, the market has found some stability around the $6,000 barrier, with buyers stepping in on the view that the regulatory challenges will eventually work themselves out, leaving a very bullish picture for a technology with tremendous potential and increased adoption. Still, there has been concern in the shorter-term on account of regulatory challenges in the space.
BTCUSD – Technical charts in detail
ETHUSD – technical overview
The market remains under pressure in 2018, extending its run of intense declines to fresh 2018 lows. The next level of major support comes in around $160, which goes back to the low from July 2017. Daily studies are however oversold, which could warn of a bigger corrective bounce before the next downside extension and bearish continuation. It would take a break back above $321 to officially take the pressure off the downside.
ETHUSD – fundamental overview
Ether has moved up since the weekly open, though the price action is deceptive, with a lot of the rally attributed to liquidation of Tether positions as the credibility of the stable coin is called into question. Overall, we’ve seen quite a bit of weakness in the price of Ether in 2018 and there’s still legitimate risk for deeper setbacks, given technical hurdles within the protocol, ongoing regulatory challenges and a global macro backdrop exposing risk correlated projects on the Ethereum blockchain. Monetary policy normalisations around the globe and an anticipated reduction in global risk appetite are placing a tremendous strain on ERC20 projects that have yet to even produce proper use cases and proof of concept.