Investors looking for risk on catalyst

Next 24 hours: Dollar runs, Gold slumps in sea of confusion

Today’s report: Investors looking for risk on catalyst

The market will be wanting to feel more optimistic about US-China trade deal prospects, with a fresh wave of risk off flow working its way into markets this week. Upgraded concerns about the global growth outlook have been working the rounds and we've seen this stress manifest through the Swiss Franc, with the EURCHF rate dropping back below 1.1200.

Download complete report as PDF

Wake-up call

Chart talk: Technical & fundamental highlights

EURUSD – technical overview

The market has been confined to choppy trading conditions over the past several weeks. We are however coming off an intense round of setbacks since topping out at a +3 year high in 2018, with the drop taking the price back into an area that roughly coincides with a bullish breakout zone from 2017. This suggests that additional setbacks could continue to be very well supported, with the greater risk from here, for the formation of a meaningful higher low, ahead of a push back to the topside. At this point, we will need to see a break back above the current 2019 high around 1.1570 to encourage this prospect.

  • R2 1.1449 – 20Mar high – Strong
  • R1 1.1332– 25Mar low – Medium
  • S1 1.1234 – 15Feb low – Medium
  • S2 1.1176 – 7Mar/2019 low – Strong

EURUSD – fundamental overview

We come into Thursday with the Euro having taken in a wave of central bank speak from various ECB members. On the whole, the comments have been balanced and a far cry from any intense dovishness associated with expectation for severe economic downturn. While ECB members have acknowledged downside risk, most have articulated readiness to deal with setbacks with various tools still at its disposal. Perhaps the most interesting of the comments came from the ECB President himself, with Draghi saying a soft patch didn’t necessarily foreshadow a serious slump. Looking ahead, we get some Eurozone confidence readings and US growth data.

EURUSD – Technical charts in detail

GBPUSD – technical overview

The major pair has put in an impressive recovery off the multi-month low in early January, helping to support the case for a longer-term developing uptrend off the 2016 low. Pullbacks are now viewed as corrective on the daily chart, with dips expected to be supported ahead of 1.2700. Look for a weekly close back above 1.3400 to strengthen the outlook.

  • R2 1.3382– 13Mar high – Strong
  • R1 1.3312 – 19Mar high – Medium
  • S1 1.3082 – 22Mar low – Medium
  • S2 1.3004 – 21Mar low  – Strong

GBPUSD – fundamental overview

The market is watching to see what the next steps in the never ending Brexit process bring. At the moment, the focus will be on whether the UK government can leverage loopholes to force a third vote on Theresa May’s Brexit deal. Ultimately, while Brexit uncertainty remains, elimination of the walking of the edge of a cliff risk that had been overly priced into the Pound from mid-2018 into January of this year, should leave the Pound in position to reprice itself higher going forward and relatively outperform. Looking ahead, attention will continue to be on Brexit updates. Later in the day, we get some growth data in the US that highlights the economic calendar docket.

USDJPY – technical overview

The major pair has stalled out after an impressive run up from the 2019 low. Look for this topside failure to set the stage for the next major downside extension back towards the 2019 flash crash low down in the 104.00s. The recent break back bellow 110.00 strengthens the bearish outlook. Ultimately, only back above 112.15 delays the bearish outlook.

  • R2 112.14 – 5Mar high – Strong
  • R1 110.96 – 21Mar high – Medium
  • S1 109.71 – 25Mar low – Medium
  • S2 109.44 – 4Feb low – Strong

USDJPY – fundamental overview

Overall, the major pair should continue to place a bigger focus on global risk sentiment and US Dollar yield differentials. The primary focus on Thursday will be on risk implications relating to renewed US-China trade talks, along with updates out from the Brexit front. On the economic data side of things, US growth data is the notable standout.

EURCHF – technical overview

The market has been in the process of consolidating off the 2018 low, which coincides with critical medium-term support in the 1.1200 area. However, at this stage, there is no clear directional bias, with the price action deferring to a neutral state. A sustained break below 1.1200 would be quite bearish, while a push back above 1.1500 would encourage bullish momentum back to 1.2000.

  • R2 1.1394 – 27Feb high – Strong
  • R1 1.1299 – 22Mar high – Medium
  • S1 1.1200 – Psychological – Strong
  • S2 1.1173– 27Mar/2019 low – Strong

EURCHF – fundamental overview

The SNB remains uncomfortable with Franc appreciation and continues to remind the market it will need to be careful about any attempts at trying to force an appreciation in the currency. But the SNB will also need to be careful right now, as its strategy to weaken the Franc is facing headwinds from a less certain global outlook. Any signs of sustained risk liquidation in 2019, will likely invite a very large wave of demand for the Franc that will put the SNB in the more challenging position of needing to back up its talk with action, that ultimately, may not prove to be as effective as it once was, given where we’re at in the monetary policy cycle.

AUDUSD – technical overview

The market has been very well supported since breaking down in early January to multi-year lows. The price action suggests we could be seeing the formation of a major base, though it would take a clear break back above 0.7400 to strengthen this outlook. Look for setbacks to continue to be well supported ahead of 0.7000.

  • R2 0.7207 – 21Feb high – Strong
  • R1 0.7169 – 21Mar high – Medium
  • S1 0.7057 – 20Mar low – Medium
  • S2 0.7004 – 8Mar low – Strong

AUDUSD – fundamental overview

The Australian Dollar has been supported on the recent dovish shift in Fed policy and this latest wave of cross related demand in reaction to the dovish RBNZ decision. The primary focus on Thursday will be on risk implications relating to renewed US-China trade talks, along with updates out from the Brexit front. On the economic data side of things, US growth reads will be the notable standout.

USDCAD – technical overview

Overall, the structure remains constructive, with dips expected to be well supported for fresh upside back above the 2018/multi-month high at 1.3665. Back below the psychological barrier at 1.3000 would be required to delay the outlook.

  • R2 1.3500 – Psychological – Strong
  • R1 1.3468 – 7Mar/2019 high – Medium
  • S1 1.3350 – 22Mar low – Medium
  • S2 1.3251 – 19Mar low – Strong

USDCAD – fundamental overview

The Canadian Dollar Dollar has managed to stabilise this week, after the currency took a hit in the previous week on worrying US-China trade talk updates and softer Canada retail sales. Looking ahead, the focus on Wednesday will be on risk implications relating to renewed US-China trade talks, Brexit updates and US growth data.

NZDUSD – technical overview

While the bigger picture outlook still shows the market in a downtrend, as per the weekly chart, there’s a case to be made for a meaningful low in place at 0.6425. As such, look for setbacks to be well supported ahead of 0.6500 in anticipation of additional upside, with only a break back below 0.6500 to put the focus back on the multi-month low from October at 0.6425. A push through 0.7000 will strengthen the constructive outlook.

  • R2 0.6942 – 1Feb/2019 high – Strong
  • R1 0.6900 –  Figure – Medium
  • S1 0.6786 – 10Mar low – Medium
  • S2 0.6745 – 7Mar low – Strong

NZDUSD – fundamental overview

The New Zealand Dollar is trying to recover from an intense round of setbacks in Wednesday trade after the RBNZ surprised with a dovish communication in its latest policy decision. Overall, we believe the bigger surprise here is in the RBNZ's ability to deliver a message like this in a timely manner after the Fed had recently reversed its policy outlook. But the fact that Kiwi would be moving in this direction in light of the bigger macro picture shouldn't be as surprising. This helps to reconcile the support into the post RBNZ dips. Earlier today, ANZ confidence and activity outlook readings were both softer than expected, but have failed to factor into price action. The primary focus on Thursday will be on risk implications relating to renewed US-China trade talks, along with updates out from the Brexit front. On the economic data side of things, US growth reads will be the notable standout.

US SPX 500 – technical overview

There have been legitimate signs of a major longer term top, with deeper setbacks projected in the months ahead. Any rallies should now continue to be very well capped, in favour of renewed weakness that targets an eventual retest of strong longer-term resistance turned support in the form of the 2015 high at 2140. The projection is based off a measured move extension derived from the previous 2018 low from February to the record high move. Next key support comes in at 2722, with a break to strengthen the outlook.

  • R2 2900 – Psychological – Strong
  • R1 2863 – 21Mar/2019 high – Strong
  • S1 2765 – 21Feb low – Medium
  • S2 2722 – 8Feb low – Strong

US SPX 500 – fundamental overview

Although we have seen attempts to push the market higher in Q1 2019, on the Fed’s more cautious outlook, exhausted monetary policy tools post 2008 crisis suggest the prospect for fresh record highs at this point in the cycle are not realistic. We recommend keeping a much closer eye on the equities to ten year yield comparative going forward, as the movement here is something that could be a major stress to the financial markets looking out.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overview

There are signs that we could be seeing the formation of a more significant medium to longer-term structural shift that would be confirmed if this latest recovery can extend back through big resistance in the form of the 2016 high at 1375. Look for setbacks to be well supported, with only a close back below 1250 to compromise the constructive outlook.

  • R2 1347– 20Feb/2019 high – Strong
  • R1 1321 – 21Mar high – Medium
  • S1 1300 – Psychological – Medium
  • S2 1277 – 4Jan/2019 low – Strong

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overview

The yellow metal continues to be well supported on dips with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about exhausted monetary policy, extended global equities, political uncertainty, systemic risk and trade war threats. All of this should keep the commodity well supported, with many market participants also fleeing to the hard asset as the grand dichotomy of record high equities and record low yields comes to an unnerving climax.

BTCUSD – technical overview

At this stage, any upside moves are classified as corrective ahead of what could be the next downside extension and bearish continuation. It would take a break back above the December high at 4385 to take the immediate pressure off the downside. Next critical support comes in the form of the July and September 2017 lows, around 2,000 and 2,975 respectively.

  • R2 4,278 – 24Feb/2019 high – Strong
  • R1 4,153 – 16Mar high – Strong
  • S1 3,763– 4Mar low – Strong
  • S2 3,570 – 13Feb low  – Strong

BTCUSD – fundamental overview

Bitcoin is showing signs of stability in Q1 2019 after an abysmal performance in 2018. At the moment, the market still faces headwinds in the form of regulatory uncertainty and ready to go front end applications with meaningful use cases, though looking out, there continue to be many encouraging signs the market is here to stay and will be seeing increased adoption.

BTCUSD – Technical charts in detail

ETHUSD – technical overview

Recovery rally attempts have stalled out into a meaningful previous support zone, to keep the pressure on the downside, with risk for a bearish continuation below 100, towards the next critical support zone in the 50-75 area. At this point, it would take a sustained break back above 170 to take the immediate pressure off the downside.

  • R2 170 – 24Feb/2019 high – Strong
  • R1 148 – 16Mar high – Strong
  • S1 126 – 4Mar low – Strong
  • S2 102 – 6Feb low  – Strong

ETHUSD – fundamental overview

Ongoing regulatory challenges, technological obstacles and a global economic downturn are some of those headwinds that need to be considered in the months ahead. At the same time, longer term prospects are looking quite bright and valuations are increasingly attractive with adoption showing signs of ramping up over the longer term.

Peformance chart: Performance v. US dollar this week

Suggested reading

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information ("information") contained on this Blog, constitutes marketing communication and it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the information contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. LMAX Group has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

LMAX Group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the produced information was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX Group does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX Group or any other FX and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.