US equities back to massive previous resistance

GBPUSD – technical overview

Signs have emerged of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base after collapsing to a record low in September 2022. The door is now open for the next major upside extension towards the 2018 high at 1.4377. Setbacks should be well supported above 1.2000 on a monthly close basis.

• R2 1.3208 – 3 April/2025 high – Strong
• R1 1.3015 – 20 March high – Medium
• S1 1.2821 –  7 April low – Medium
• S2 1.2768 – 5 March low – Medium

GBPUSD – fundamental overview

The Pound has been bolstered by a weaker US dollar, as falling Treasury yields reflect growing recession fears in the US amid President Trump's aggressive tariff policies. Despite disappointing UK economic data, the pound has remained resilient, supported by a lower 10% tariff rate on UK goods compared to higher tariffs elsewhere. Key standouts on Monday’s calendar come from German trade, German industrial production, Eurozone retail sales, ECB speak, the Bank of Canada business outlook, and some Fed speak.

USDJPY – technical overview

There are signs of a meaningful top in place after the market put in a multi-year high in 2024. At this point, the door is now open for a deeper setback towards the 140 area.

• R2 149.28 – 3 April high – Medium
• R1 147.44 – 4 April high – Medium
• S1 144.55 – 4 April/2025 low – Medium
• S2 144.00 – Figure – Medium

USDJPY – fundamental overview

The Yen has experienced volatility, initially strengthening on the open due to heightened safe-haven demand amid escalating global trade tensions sparked by U.S. tariff announcements. However, we've since seen the Yen back under pressure as the U.S. dollar tries to regain some ground. Key standouts on Monday’s calendar come from German trade, German industrial production, Eurozone retail sales, ECB speak, the Bank of Canada business outlook, and some Fed speak.

AUDUSD – technical overview

There are signs of the potential formation of a longer-term base with the market trading down into a meaningful longer-term support zone. Only a monthly close below 0.5500 would give reason for rethink. A monthly close back above 0.7000 will take the big picture pressure off the downside and strengthen case for a bottom.

• R1 0.6332 – 4 April high – Medium
• R2 0.6187 – 4 March low – Medium
• S1 0.5932 – 7 April/2025 low – Strong
• S2 0.5900 – Figure – Medium

AUDUSD – fundamental overview

The Australian Dollar has faced downward pressure to its lowest level since 2020 due to a risk-off sentiment triggered by President Trump's global tariff threats, compounded by China's retaliatory export restrictions on precious metals critical to Australia’s economy. Despite a weakening US dollar from falling Treasury yields, the Aussie has struggled to gain traction, with markets pricing in potential economic fallout from disrupted trade flows and weaker commodity demand. Key standouts on Monday’s calendar come from German trade, German industrial production, Eurozone retail sales, ECB speak, the Bank of Canada business outlook, and some Fed speak.

USDCAD – technical overview

A sustained hold above 1.3000 over the past several months signals an end to a period of longer-term bearish consolidation and suggests the market is in the process of carving out a more significant longer-term base. Next key resistance now comes in at the 1.5000 psychological barrier. Setbacks should be very well supported ahead of 1.4000.

• R2 1.4416 – 1 April high – Strong
• R1 1.4319 – 3 April high – Medium
• S1 1.4151 – 14 April low – Medium
• S2 1.4027 – 3 April/2025 low – Strong

USDCAD – fundamental overview

The Canadian Dollar remains under pressure as oil prices sink to their lowest level since April 2021 amidst intense fallout in global financial markets as trade wars ramp up and US recession fears come to the fore. Key standouts on Monday’s calendar come from German trade, German industrial production, Eurozone retail sales, ECB speak, the Bank of Canada business outlook, and some Fed speak.

NZDUSD – technical overview

Overall pressure remains on the downside with the market continuing to stall out on runs up into the 0.6500 area. At the same time, there are some signs of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base. Ultimately, a break back above 0.6500 would be required to take the medium-term pressure off the downside and encourage this prospect. A monthly close below 0.5469 will intensify bearish price action.

• R2 0.5798 – 4 April high – Medium
• R1 0.5648 – 31 March low – Medium
• S1 0.5552 – 4 April low – Medium
• S2 0.5516 – 3 February/2025 low – Strong

NZDUSD – fundamental overview

The New Zealand Dollar has been under pressure, declining sharply due to a risk-off sentiment triggered by escalating global trade tensions following the US imposition of unexpectedly high tariffs last week. The Kiwi rate has also faced headwinds from China’s retaliatory measures, including a 34% tariff on US imports and export restrictions on precious metals, further weakening the Kiwi as a China-proxy currency amid expectations of a Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate cut to 3.50%. Key standouts on Monday’s calendar come from German trade, German industrial production, Eurozone retail sales, ECB speak, the Bank of Canada business outlook, and some Fed speak.

US SPX 500 – technical overview

The market has come back down to test a major previous resistance turned support in the form of the 2022 high. Look for additional setbacks to be limited from here in favor of the formation of the next major higher low and a bullish continuation.

• R2 5398– 4 April high – Strong
• R1 5000 – Psychological – Medium
• S1 4800 – Previous Resistance 2022/2025 low – Strong
• S2 4700 – Round number – Medium

US SPX 500 – fundamental overview

Going forward, it will be important to keep an eye on Trump trade policies, inflation, bigger picture economic data and the Fed policy outlook. Any of these variables are capable of triggering a massive turnaround in the outlook for the stock market.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overview

The 2019 breakout above the 2016 high at 1375 was a significant development, opening the door for fresh record highs and this next major upside extension towards 3500. Setbacks should now be well supported above 2800 on a monthly close basis.

• R2 3200 – Round Number – Medium
• R1 3168 – 3 April/Record high – Medium
• S1 2970 – 7 April low – Medium
• S2 2957 – 24 February high – Strong

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overview

The yellow metal has pushed record highs in recent months with solid demand from medium and longer-term accounts. These players are more concerned about inflation, geopolitical risk and a less upbeat global growth outlook. All of this should keep the commodity well supported over the coming months.